Market Trading Vs Selling: An Analysis

[Nick_]

Ok **** it, you're too noob, go learn to play the game at a high level and then come back with a simulator closer to the real life.

 

[[wW]Lojza_]

Ok **** it, you're too noob, go learn to play the game at a high level and then come back with a simulator closer to the real life.

English gentleman at his best. I dont see how is RicoJay not the real winner here.

 

[Influenza]

Your first paragraph is disproven by basically every pro BF game on youtube, including the Viper game I linked about a page back.

Opponents are ready to clash at minute 35? What games are you playing?

apparently not gameranger NR 45 like you must be

 

[gmischa]

Ok **** it, you're too noob, go learn to play the game at a high level and then come back with a simulator closer to the real life.

Just out of curiosity but did you actually think he was going to respond properly this time after 55 pages of BS? Your post looked rather wise but this seems quite dumb 11

 

[Seb1234]

Because it's too complex to truly answer. Which doesn't change the fact that 40 Mangudai worth of resources over the course of several key minutes in the pivotal time in many games is worth discussing. Again, if you think this isn't a lot and you can easily hold back an opponent with this much extra resources, trade away. If you think you have the time in an untouched boom situation on say a BF pocket game where everybody is walled up and there's minimal expectation of a fight for 10+ minutes, trade away.

But in my experience in 1750HD+ BF games, this isn't the case. So I almost never trade

The whole concept is complicated in itself and i totally agree that its worth discussing, thats why i still do. Its also why a rather simple spreadsheet of resource incomes/spends isnt capable of representing the reality.
You seem to have the attitude to say “my numbers say that so it's definitely that way.“ rather than “nobody is doing it so what am i missing“ and thats why everybody is against you, it seems

And again, i dont want to take scenarios from you where it's better to not trade. I just don't think it's better in general

 

[RicoJay13]

The whole concept is complicated in itself and i totally agree that its worth discussing, thats why i still do. Its also why a rather simple spreadsheet of resource incomes/spends isnt capable of representing the reality.
You seem to have the attitude to say “my numbers say that so it's definitely that way.“ rather than “nobody is doing it so what am i missing“ and thats why everybody is against you, it seems

And again, i dont want to take scenarios from you where it's better to not trade. I just don't think it's better in general

It's important to keep in mind that this discussion has 2 separate aspects: 1. The 14 minutes ROI of trading vs selling (the spreadsheet) and the resulting disadvantage in total resources for one vs the other, and then 2. the gameplay that occurs during that timeframe in a real game, or simulated in the editor to determine the actual advantage in winrate that could be seen from utilizing that resource advantage. Issue 2. is the one that we agree and discuss as being complex and super difficult to pinpoint in terms of actual winrate advantage, how game-ending it would be etc. I consider issue 1. to be settled science and the spreadsheet math to be a very good approximation of a typical game and the typical advantage in terms of resources that a non-trader has vs a seller.

So I guess my point is simply that I don't want to accept that because issue 2. is complex, that therefore issue 1. and its math and the spreadsheet are worthless and don't do a good job of settling anything.

In my mind, even though issue 2. is very complex, I've run a boom several times as both a trader and as a seller, and at minute 35 and at minute 40 I could have built a completely overpowering army as the seller in comparison to the trader. My point is that given a player of equal skill, the seller easily overtakes the trader based on what I can do building in the editor in an untouched boom. Ie, it's 100% winrate. When I boom as the seller the army I can create overruns the trader version of me's army and ends the game every time given a similar boom.

 

[RicoJay13]

Just out of curiosity but did you actually think he was going to respond properly this time after 55 pages of BS? Your post looked rather wise but this seems quite dumb 11

The irony is that I don't have to come back with a simulator that is closer to real life: I created a scenario both to test your own skills as a seller and as a trader, and also a scenario that I tested vs a player on this forum. So beyond just being a jerk, he's also flatly wrong and obviously not paying attention.

 

[robo]

I tried running both of your scenarios again, both times the ai resigned before (34minutes) I reached full pop or ran out of gold.

 

[_5_]

Robo too op, please nerf

 

[klavskisLV]

I tried running both of your scenarios again, both times the ai resigned before (34minutes) I reached full pop or ran out of gold.

This will go in that Secret team application, 100% i'm calling it!

 

[yodan]

Because it's too complex to truly answer. Which doesn't change the fact t...

Discussion over; you finally admitted it.
I think we all agree now that the data does not support conclusions.
You interpret it one way appropriate for your level. aoezone interprets it another way. Get better data or stop projecting.

 

[Memeluke]

Unlike most of the people here, I've had the pleasure to team him in BF on steam. Like his teachings, our team did not trade one bit, but we were unlucky enough to find some opponents that didn't know about the superiority of selling wood and so we succumbed to some pleb with 50k trade profit in the end who trashtalked him the whole time while being my flank and the furthest away from rico. I think the problem was that nobody of us had mongols so we couldn't make use of the 40 extra mangudai.

 

[AgentJCDenton]

Let me analyze this:

RicoJay13 appears to have a personality disorder and is obviously a very experienced debater with high IQ. He is better at arguing than pretty much anyone here, but that doesn't mean he's more knowledgable at the game. Look up personality disorder on wikipedia and you will begin to understand what could possess (and enable) a person to go this far on a weird non-meta strategy.

 

[Sinken]

He is better at arguing than pretty much anyone here

Are you sure you aren't RicoJay's smurf-account where he lets his arrogance loose?

 

[MaSmOrRa]

He is better at arguing than pretty much anyone here

Yeah, he reminds of Jeff Sessions and his now infamous “I don’t recall”.

Only in Rico’s case, when he has been pushed to the corner and has no arguments left, he pulls out of his pocket the ultimate retort: ”not enough math”.

 

[RicoJay13]

I tried running both of your scenarios again, both times the ai resigned before (34minutes) I reached full pop or ran out of gold.

The last version of the scenario fixed the AI resigning issue.

 

[RicoJay13]

Let me analyze this:

RicoJay13 appears to have a personality disorder and is obviously a very experienced debater with high IQ. He is better at arguing than pretty much anyone here, but that doesn't mean he's more knowledgable at the game. Look up personality disorder on wikipedia and you will begin to understand what could possess (and enable) a person to go this far on a weird non-meta strategy.

You know you're losing an argument when you not only believe the other side has a personality disorder, but write that in a forum as a means of trying to insult a stranger.

 

[RicoJay13]

Yeah, he reminds of Jeff Sessions and his now infamous “I don’t recall”.

Only in Rico’s case, when he has been pushed to the corner and has no arguments left, he pulls out of his pocket the ultimate retort: ”not enough math”.

Not enough math. Hey at least it's a better retort than the ones your side uses: that I must have a personality disorder.

 

[RicoJay13]

Unlike most of the people here, I've had the pleasure to team him in BF on steam. Like his teachings, our team did not trade one bit, but we were unlucky enough to find some opponents that didn't know about the superiority of selling wood and so we succumbed to some pleb with 50k trade profit in the end who trashtalked him the whole time while being my flank and the furthest away from rico. I think the problem was that nobody of us had mongols so we couldn't make use of the 40 extra mangudai.

We lost because nobody of us learned English.

 

[iViktorius]

oh, so one guy says you must have a personality disorder, which by extension means we all say that.

if a=b and c=b than a=c

good math

 

[RicoJay13]

oh, so one guy says you must have a personality disorder, which by extension means we all say that.

if a=b and c=b than a=c

good math

You realize you just quoted the Transitive Law of mathematics right haha? "A" does equal "C" based on this established law. I cherish your post as an example of how the other people who think like you do but who are smart should rethink their position given that you agree with them.

Also, it's "then" not "than".

As some examples:
"You said something ironically dumb, THEN used incorrect grammar."

"Dumb people laugh at you cause they are smarter THAN you."

 

[orangereaper]

I wonder if thread has lost objectivity ... (I know we are well past that).
It seems like a spirited discussion between theoritical (Rico) and actual (rest).

I still dont get what is wrong in Rico's POV on the "thoerical" aspect. Is his data on having "40" mangudai resources incorrect. Let's not get into "trader' will simply not do that etc. Its almost like the race-to-200vills, does Rico's math hold up !?

The second part is practicality of it. Most of the BF games (unless the civs and/or map is lopsided) do go into the "trading" phase of the game. So unless you are turks doing a FI, trading is the meta.

 

[RicoJay13]

I wonder if thread has lost objectivity ... (I know we are well past that).
It seems like a spirited discussion between theoritical (Rico) and actual (rest).

I still dont get what is wrong in Rico's POV on the "thoerical" aspect. Is his data on having "40" mangudai resources incorrect. Let's not get into "trader' will simply not do that etc. Its almost like the race-to-200vills, does Rico's math hold up !?

The second part is practicality of it. Most of the BF games (unless the civs and/or map is lopsided) do go into the "trading" phase of the game. So unless you are turks doing a FI, trading is the meta.

Here's my google doc:

Age Trading Analysis

Master Sheet Equation for gold based on distance,Enter carts#,32,Halved y = 0.0024x2 + 0.0823x + 0.9875,<a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/aoe2/comments/2ua4mq/trade_cart_value/">https://www.reddit.com/r/aoe2/comments/2ua4mq/trade_cart_value/</a>,<--- yellow boxes you can change, theyre variables...

docs.google.com

There are some assumptions and people have and are free to change things to suit their assumptions. The bumpage for example can be closer to 0% for arabia. The trade route length can be much worse on BF due to large forests preventing a good long route. Trirem did his own version of this and the breakeven was over 20 minutes due to differing assumptions.

Most BF games on YT and that Ive played in end before trade has paid off. Ive previously provided examples of viper and other pro games. You can check this on the finish screen of your games where it shows trade profit. Note that is trade REVENUE though, so you have to subtract for every cart, market and Caravan. Then you have to include the opportunity cost of having used that pop for wood chopping which isn't negligible.

 

[gmischa]

Also, it's "then" not "than".

When you run out of arguments....

 

[Flow]

When you run out of arguments....

I cannot help but notice to see that you added four dots at the end of your sentence. Commonly, three are used and in the English language it is called ellipsis. The fact that you made this silly mistake shows your intellectual inferiority and makes you a bad human. Henceforth I will not take any argument made by you on any topic seriously.
Additionally, to provide this post with some much needed mathematical analysis, I will note that 4 > 3.