Doesn't your avatar look like a trade cart?
For someone who complains so much about being insulted you really like to generalize everyone you consider wrong into one category of dim-witted, lazy morons.My spreadsheet shows the exact resource edge at every minute for those 14 minutes. Not that anybody obviously even looks at it. I'll summarize for those of you too lazy to click.
I mean, even when you do present math -like I did in my post on the previous page- he'll still gloss over it since it disproves his theory.Of course, because I haven't presented what you consider to be "math," your only response has been "no math no good argument."
My spreadsheet shows the exact resource edge at every minute for those 14 minutes. Not that anybody obviously even looks at it. I'll summarize for those of you too lazy to click.
Since no revenue arrives for the first 6 minutes for the trader, he's in the hole big time for that entire time. Its fairly linear from 0 to 40 Mangudai for those 6 mins.
Then from 6 to 9 minutes is the peak and those 3 minutes are >40 Mangudai edge.
The next 3 it only tapers to a 20 Mangudai edge.
Then the final 3 minutes to breakeven (11 to 14 mins) your edge as seller goes from 20 to 0 Mangudai.
Put simply: it's closer to 40 than 0 for most of these 14 minutes.
It sure is!Doesn't your avatar look like a trade cart?
The math is in the spreadsheet. Exact differences in resources between the seller and trader are shown as a function of time past trade starting. Not sure what you are asking or what point you are trying to me. Don't mean that as an insult.For someone who complains so much about being insulted you really like to generalize everyone you consider wrong into one category of dim-witted, lazy morons.
That being said, I did read your spreadsheet, and in spite of its overly-complicated layout I understood it perfectly fine.
From this understanding, I have pointed out that your spreadsheet does not calculate what you call "resource edge" exactly. Let's call it a rough estimate motivated from an unmotivated simulation (see my previous posts which I assume you only glossed over).
Of course, because I haven't presented what you consider to be "math," your only response has been "no math no good argument."
It's worth pointing out that you keep throwing numbers around like a politician, but you have shaky (or no) math to back it up.
It does not.I mean, even when you do present math -like I did in my post on the previous page- he'll still gloss over it since it disproves his theory.
What you are asking is difficult to prove. Ive tried showing that an extra edge in resources equivalent to 40 Mangudai is decisive in the editor. Ive tried saying things that i consider obvious like if you gave a viper clone 40 Mangudai at minute 30 vs the real viper my instinct is that the clone ends the game well over 50%. Ive tabulated games Ive played in and its very rare they go long enough that players make a trade profit. In a BF TG, it basically has to get to 45+ minutes conflict free. Ie full boom, no castle drop or feudal fighting games. If the game ends before 40 minutes, few mortals can have earned trade profit by that point. None of this gets anyone to want to contribute their own effort.I did look at it at some point in the last months but didn't want to again this time because the exact numbers don't matter for my argument.
Since you seem to insist on the 14 min i have a few questions for you:
How long do you think the push would need to make severe damage?
Until what time in this 14 min do you need to start your push to have a win probability >0,5?
How many more ressources does an attacker need compared to a defender?
Ps: i'd stop insulting people that try to show you where your model lacks. Doesn't help your cause
Sure you can make more vills as the seller, but you don't account for those extra costs in your spreadsheet, while you let the trader delete vills when he's not pop-capped yet, which gives an advantage to the seller.When I test it in the scenario, I can easily outpace trade cart population space by adding more TCs. This is in comparison to myself where Id stay on 3 TCs and add markets instead (and then carts).
Can you describe the scenario? Did you make a fourth tc, while thehand stayed on 3 tc's? If so, why don't you add the costs of the fourth tc and the additional vills you made to the spreadsheet?Note this mimics the test games I played vs thehand where we had similar pops even though he added 8 carts. Markets and carts cost a lot of wood, plus gold, plus Caravan etc.
I don't think it's helpful for me to test this scenario as it's too much dependent on screw-ups on my side. On top of that it would be statistically insignificant anyway, you'd have to do the test multiple times and I'm not that invested in this theory 11If you really want to test it for yourself and be the first person to do so, run my scenario as a trader and then as a seller. Let's see the difference in resources at say 35 and 40 minutes etc. That is the way to find out something productive about this.
Vil costs in food would be negligible as the spreadsheet bottoms out the food and wood cost. And once you add vils and costs you have to add the resources they could be gathering once they pop out. A vil in imperial age can gather 26-31 wood per minute so they easily pay for their food cost in wood in less than 2 minutes assuming rock bottom food and wood prices.Sure you can make more vills as the seller, but you don't account for those extra costs in your spreadsheet, while you let the trader delete vills when he's not pop-capped yet, which gives an advantage to the seller.
Can you describe the scenario? Did you make a fourth tc, while thehand stayed on 3 tc's? If so, why don't you add the costs of the fourth tc and the additional vills you made to the spreadsheet?
I don't think it's helpful for me to test this scenario as it's too much dependent on screw-ups on my side. On top of that it would be statistically insignificant anyway, you'd have to do the test multiple times and I'm not that invested in this theory 11
not really, unless you do the same for the vills that the trader is deleting, when in a real game that wouldn't be the case.And once you add vils and costs you have to add the resources they could be gathering once they pop out
Then it seems he messed up his boom, otherwise he should be ahead.Thehand and I both made 4 TCs in our scenario.
I guess you played the scenario multiple times then?Sorry to hear youre not that invested in this theory. It shows.
If you remembered who you were talking to, you'd know the opposite would seem to be the more likely case. I posted the recs of our games for precisely this reason, knowing he would try to bullshit his own interpretation of them. You'll find them some hundreds of posts back. I'll take a look when I get a moment, maybe searching for rec might work. In the first game, I steamrolled his base as he forgot to make military, thinking that I wouldn't attack until I was fully popped. In the second game I tried exactly the same thing and my stubborness backfired. Neither game bore any relevance to the discussion at hand, as I've pointed out numerous time, and they weren't intended to. They were mainly a curiosity, not meant to be turned into propoganda...Then it seems he messed up his boom, otherwise he should be ahead.
What you are asking is difficult to prove. Ive tried showing that an extra edge in resources equivalent to 40 Mangudai is decisive in the editor. Ive tried saying things that i consider obvious like if you gave a viper clone 40 Mangudai at minute 30 vs the real viper my instinct is that the clone ends the game well over 50%. Ive tabulated games Ive played in and its very rare they go long enough that players make a trade profit. In a BF TG, it basically has to get to 45+ minutes conflict free. Ie full boom, no castle drop or feudal fighting games. If the game ends before 40 minutes, few mortals can have earned trade profit by that point. None of this gets anyone to want to contribute their own effort.
I'm trying to keep us focused on showing the resource edge. Nobody wants to simulate both booms to see. Or maybe they do but when they see like I did that the seller can make a shatload more units they dont want to post it. In any event, I wish we would get somewhere on that.
Not enough math. Please just leave the topic if you can't possibly take Rico's 2k simulation seriously. He's made it very clear that he doesn't have time for trolls like you.Alright, I'll bite one more time.
What you describe here IS IMPOSSIBLE.
A 2k+ boomer will have between 4 and 5 tcs as a standard boom and will click up to imperial between 25 mins and 26 mins (certain civs will click up faster to take advantage of cheap units, such as vikings, mayans ect) the don't add markets until AFTER they have clicked imp AND continues making vills until anywhere from 130-150.
A seller can ONLY have MORE villagers then the trader at this point if they went for MORE TCS in castle age which SLOWS down your imp time, or added TCs during imperial transition (not a zero sum investment buddy)
So in the real life at 30 mins if the trader built 4 markets and the markets were finished at 27 minutes (and caravan was researched in the original market in your home base) will have been able to produce at 51s a cart 3 carts each with a 4th one on the way and potentially a 5th queued ready. If we say each market has made 3 and queued 2 the total outlay at this very point in time for the trader is 3900 resources. (20 carts, 4 markets, caravan).
40 mandugai cost 4800 resources and take 26 seconds to build. At minute 30 you can expect a 2k boomer to have to probably have 3 castles at this point, and possible already have elite mangudai and conscription (depends when they reached imperial) To train 40 mandugai at 26seconds takes 1040 seconds total, so for 3 castles to make 40 mangudais it will take 346 seconds. 4 castles would be 260 seconds. Keep in mind that the trader is also already doing the same upgrades in his castles and is also able to keep producing at the same rate at the seller (he does not have to choose between trade and army as you seem to think at this point).
So somewhere at game time minute 35 we have our two opponents ready to clash (all upgrades complete, first armies ready to do battle), the trader at this point in time has already had his first carts on the map for a minimum of 7 minutes. For the seller to have another 40 mangudai produced is already another 4 minutes training time alone.... The trader will granted have produced at least another 20 carts (2000 wood, 1000 gold) but wood is nothing at this point in time, only the gold is important and the seller has probably sold 2000 wood for 280 gold (wood price is already tanked at min 30, so no chance of getting more than 14 gold per 100 wood) meaning each round of 20 carts is only another 720 gold investment and the traders first carts will have returned home.
The skill edge required to win the game as the seller there is GIGANTIC, you would need perfect micro, decision making and some luck between two equal players.
You ain't discovering a great new meta that could change the face of the game, you're just a meme in the blackforest community.
The day someone uses complex analysis in age of empires will be a glorious day.The complex analysis...
I know...What you are asking is difficult to prove. ...
TheHand and I agreed we were similar skill levels. Again, insulting him or me as to our skill levels is page 1 time-wasting. All things equal includes skill of players. Two equal players: the seller has a huge resource edge for a long time in late castle early imperial age.not really, unless you do the same for the vills that the trader is deleting, when in a real game that wouldn't be the case.
Then it seems he messed up his boom, otherwise he should be ahead.
I guess you played the scenario multiple times then?
Your first paragraph is disproven by basically every pro BF game on youtube, including the Viper game I linked about a page back.Alright, I'll bite one more time.
What you describe here IS IMPOSSIBLE.
A 2k+ boomer will have between 4 and 5 tcs as a standard boom and will click up to imperial between 25 mins and 26 mins (certain civs will click up faster to take advantage of cheap units, such as vikings, mayans ect) the don't add markets until AFTER they have clicked imp AND continues making vills until anywhere from 130-150.
A seller can ONLY have MORE villagers then the trader at this point if they went for MORE TCS in castle age which SLOWS down your imp time, or added TCs during imperial transition (not a zero sum investment buddy)
So in the real life at 30 mins if the trader built 4 markets and the markets were finished at 27 minutes (and caravan was researched in the original market in your home base) will have been able to produce at 51s a cart 3 carts each with a 4th one on the way and potentially a 5th queued ready. If we say each market has made 3 and queued 2 the total outlay at this very point in time for the trader is 3900 resources. (20 carts, 4 markets, caravan).
40 mandugai cost 4800 resources and take 26 seconds to build. At minute 30 you can expect a 2k boomer to have to probably have 3 castles at this point, and possible already have elite mangudai and conscription (depends when they reached imperial) To train 40 mandugai at 26seconds takes 1040 seconds total, so for 3 castles to make 40 mangudais it will take 346 seconds. 4 castles would be 260 seconds. Keep in mind that the trader is also already doing the same upgrades in his castles and is also able to keep producing at the same rate at the seller (he does not have to choose between trade and army as you seem to think at this point).
So somewhere at game time minute 35 we have our two opponents ready to clash (all upgrades complete, first armies ready to do battle), the trader at this point in time has already had his first carts on the map for a minimum of 7 minutes. For the seller to have another 40 mangudai produced is already another 4 minutes training time alone.... The trader will granted have produced at least another 20 carts (2000 wood, 1000 gold) but wood is nothing at this point in time, only the gold is important and the seller has probably sold 2000 wood for 280 gold (wood price is already tanked at min 30, so no chance of getting more than 14 gold per 100 wood) meaning each round of 20 carts is only another 720 gold investment and the traders first carts will have returned home.
The skill edge required to win the game as the seller there is GIGANTIC, you would need perfect micro, decision making and some luck between two equal players.
You ain't discovering a great new meta that could change the face of the game, you're just a meme in the blackforest community.
Because it's too complex to truly answer. Which doesn't change the fact that 40 Mangudai worth of resources over the course of several key minutes in the pivotal time in many games is worth discussing. Again, if you think this isn't a lot and you can easily hold back an opponent with this much extra resources, trade away. If you think you have the time in an untouched boom situation on say a BF pocket game where everybody is walled up and there's minimal expectation of a fight for 10+ minutes, trade away.I know...
But the answers of these kinds of questions are missing from your spreadsheet showing the res advantage to “selling is better than trade in gereral“
Your first paragraph is disproven by basically every pro BF game on youtube, including the Viper game I linked about a page back.
Opponents are ready to clash at minute 35? What games are you playing?
I'm not insulting your or his skill level, if you think I am you must be very insecure about your skill level.TheHand and I agreed we were similar skill levels. Again, insulting him or me as to our skill levels is page 1 time-wasting. All things equal includes skill of players. Two equal players: the seller has a huge resource edge for a long time in late castle early imperial age.
That's not what I'm saying, I'm saying you should take the resources for the tc's and vills into account in your document, as you also take the prize of the markets, caravan and the trade carts into account. It would be unfair to take only these prizes of one side into account. I don't think it will make a huge difference, but it's a fault in your document nonetheless.If you really think that building 200wood markets and 100w+50g carts plus Caravan doesn't allow a player who DOESNT build that to add TC's and vils with the same resources to keep or have a larger pop, I'm not sure what to say.
I'd be interested in the results of these tests.How many tc's did you build in both scenario's? At what time did you start trade and at what were the villager numbers in both scenarios?I played my seller vs trader scenario several times, and paused the game in key moments to make sure I was playing just about as well as I could be so that there weren't differences in the simulations due to getting housed, etc. Nobody else has taken the time to do so.
I presented my simulation that compares trading vs selling. I went into this unbiased and the results I got convinced me that trading instead of selling is worth it in most situations.It does not.