HC4: The ultimate guessing guide.

[Hera_]

I usually hate aoezone threads cuz i find some people here overly negative but i have to say i enjoyed reading this one. Not only the comments about guessing players (which i liked alot) but even the ones criticizing the games, most notably my boring play.

Believe it or not it actually made me question a few things i did, how i was overly defensive and predictable and i managed to give it some thought and sneak in some different ideas for the final.

I don't mind paying defensive and macroing, and while some think its boring, i think its sometimes the right call and i would always play to win for these tourneys. However in some games i overdid the defense and early walling and played too cautious, which was a bad thing and on top of that boring for viewers.

So yeah i actually took a bit of inspiration from this thread and also from losing arabia vs viper to mix up my playstyle a tiny bit for the finals to surprise my opponent.

Big takeaway from this tourney for me -> Theoretically, defensive style is the best for many reasons (more army numbers, easier mango micro, etc) but practically its soooo much easier to put pressure and force mistakes from your opponent. I'm not the best aggro player, i think larry is but i think its something im gonna work on for the future

+1 to making these threads more often, would give me a positive reason to read aoezone instead of just running into people who hate me and wanna make it known 11

 

[shm0wt]

Honestly I have so much respect for @Hera_ after this, what a road to victory and what a stylish way to finish off a tournament run. A friend of mine once told me "Hera is gonna be number 2 forever" and like the fool I am I agreed with them. We'd always seen him as a very skilled player in terms of macro and micro, but someone who tends to follow the existing meta and struggles to compete with more creative strategies from top level opponents. We were dead wrong. He showed us this weekend he's a serious strategist who's can mix things up and make it work, from Bulgarians on G1 Arabia to Celt palas on Cup. What a performance and what a player. I'm sure he's got plenty more tournament wins in his future.

People always trash players for walling or defending or whatever, but personally I think solid defensive play can be every bit as impressive as a super fast feudal scout rush, and often requires considerably more skill and strategy to execute effectively. I'm sure Hera will continue to learn and grow as a player and try new things, but man, don't let the haters get you down. They'll never be half the player you are.

 

[Hersir_I]

Defense may not always be the most entertaining to watch, but your games still produced some of the best of the series (g5 vs TaToH was crazy), and your 1tc aggression vs Jordan was also great showing how you can play both depending on the situation. Congrats on running through an absolutely crazy gauntlet and winning it all!

 

[T90Official]

I wanted to thank you guys for the pages of awesome speculation throughout Hidden Cup 4. This thread was quality throughout the tournament and I greatly appreciated the fun, detailed, and generally respectful comments posted by you all. It’s sadly rare on aoezone these days, to the point where I decided against starting such threads myself going forward. Which kinda breaks my heart, as this is the type of stuff this website should be about.

Loved how in HC4 the fans were more correct than ever, and players were wrong in more cases than ever. Kinda wish we had asked players properly back in the voobly days so we could compare guessing in the peer to peer(voobly) to server (DE) days.

It’s great to see how much individuality exists within such a tight & competitive pro scene. One of many things that makes our scene unique. Thanks again.

 

[JoshuaR]

What a tournament! Thank you T90, robo, overlay guy, Dux, and everyone that made this possible. Dave and all the co-casters were fantastic, as well.

Re: the ultimate guessing game:

So cool to see that Jordan IS BACK! All I could say to myself, reading this thread, entering clues into my spreadsheet... WHO IS THE ADMIRAL? In the end, I couldn't look past the fact that Gonzalo, Le Loi, Ivaylo, and Admiral were all teammates, and then it was just a treat to watch the final. Man, when T90 zoomed out on the Arabia game, and we saw all the individual spears, militia, and spare units showing Jordan's map presence, that was just a treat to get into the mind of a pro player. Seeing the Muflow game and thinking that Jordan was going to have a LEAD in the series against Hera, just amazing.

Finally: Congratulations, Hera! One could argue that only Nicov had a tougher bracket than you did (though Jordan having to go through Capoch, TheMax, MbL, ACCM, and MrYo is no joke). Amazing comeback after falling behind TheViper 2-0. G1 the defense looked so tight and perfect, and then the cat-and-mouse game ended in a flash, and the Snek had nabbed the victory. G2 he somehow raided his way out of an absolutely horrendous civ match up. But this was no repeat of HC3 because you found a way to dig deep and even the series before ultimately finishing the series with a fantastic Land Madness-esque touch.
Then in the finals to gamble on the Bulgarians, to make us question whether Vietnamese could beat the Portuguese on Islands, to face the same strategy that won you the previous match in G3, before ultimately pulling paladins out of a hat, what fantastic preparation and play.

It was a real treat.

 

[ltm]

This thread was awesome and made HC4 even more fun to watch. Thanks to all the people speculating here!

Got 14/16 only mixing up Dogao and Nicov (screw you for picking Islands 11) and felt like most of them were pretty easy to spot actually.

Happy that i adamantly defended Joadn=Admiral the whole time, my boy is BACK :D

 

[amazing_knight]

When was the last time you saw an aoezone thread with 52 pages which did not have any Drama!

Shout out to everyone who was engaged in the nice discussion here. It was "Amazing Learn".

Congrats to Hera and Joadn for the amazing performances!

 

[MaSmOrRa]

I usually hate aoezone threads cuz i find some people here overly negative but i have to say i enjoyed reading this one. Not only the comments about guessing players (which i liked alot) but even the ones criticizing the games, most notably my boring play.

Believe it or not it actually made me question a few things i did, how i was overly defensive and predictable and i managed to give it some thought and sneak in some different ideas for the final.

I don't mind paying defensive and macroing, and while some think its boring, i think its sometimes the right call and i would always play to win for these tourneys. However in some games i overdid the defense and early walling and played too cautious, which was a bad thing and on top of that boring for viewers.

So yeah i actually took a bit of inspiration from this thread and also from losing arabia vs viper to mix up my playstyle a tiny bit for the finals to surprise my opponent.

Big takeaway from this tourney for me -> Theoretically, defensive style is the best for many reasons (more army numbers, easier mango micro, etc) but practically its soooo much easier to put pressure and force mistakes from your opponent. I'm not the best aggro player, i think larry is but i think its something im gonna work on for the future

+1 to making these threads more often, would give me a positive reason to read aoezone instead of just running into people who hate me and wanna make it known 11

Dude, after those Celt Paladins...No one will ever say a bad word about you ever again!

Congrats man, what an amazing run!

 

[Pc23]

Congratulations Hera and Tournament organizer for a great tourney.. Thoroughly enjoyed although a Viper/Daut fan so a bit sad. Also I have recently joined AoeZone even though following this game from 2007 and then stopped closely following in between from 2012-13... So thanks to everyone who got the game where it is now again. Also I don't think Aoezone is negative...I mean it's a platform just like any other and surely I too find many posts here a bit over the top drama and some of the replies unnecessarily harsh even though the same message can be passed in a better way however I find Aoezone really great to update myself on what went on when I couldn't follow the game and so many people here are very knowledgeable and respectful. So request everyone please keep participating here and just do ignore the drama/negative part. What Hera said is perfect way of dealing with negative post I.e. ignore the tone and see if there is any value in those criticism. Hope this game continues to grow.

 

[eC_Gurke]

@Johnie2020 Good job going out of your way to laugh at anyone saying jordan could play that good. Im too lazy to quote all your posts. Got anything to say now? LOL

Man what a great tourney, and a great thread here!

 

[dave_hun]

Controversial opinion

Celts aren't a top tier Cup civ and they only worked last time because players were caught by surprise.

Don't forget Celts got a big nerf a couple months ago. They used to have the strongest drush, even if opponent mirrors the 3 militias, celts could add a 4th one ,force an engagement and dominate. Now their drush is generic and Celts can't really grab a lot of control early, especially vs japanese.

 

[Johnie2020]

@Johnie2020 Good job going out of your way to laugh at anyone saying jordan could play that good. Im too lazy to quote all your posts. Got anything to say now? LOL

Man what a great tourney, and a great thread here!

Knowing that Master of Templar was Mbl, and how Jordan struggled a lot vs Mbl on ladder, I just couldn't believe that Jordan would 3-1 Mbl and furthermore go and win 4-1 vs Yo, Jordan going to the finals is the same like Daut winning RBW3 the biggest surprise this year, I hope he keeps playing and being motivated like he already is, he is a legend.

 

[lecracheursagacite]

Knowing that Master of Templar was Mbl, and how Jordan struggled a lot vs Mbl on ladder, I just couldn't believe that Jordan would 3-1 Mbl and furthermore go and win 4-1 vs Yo, Jordan going to the finals is the same like Daut winning RBW3 the biggest surprise this year, I hope he keeps playing and being motivated like he already is, he is a legend.

Answering the callout with composure instead of ignoring it is something we should all laud.

 

[tia]

Amazing tournament through and through, top notch production quality and entertainment, great casting and absolutely astonishing level of gameplay shown by the participants. The hidden aspect is very exciting and probably harder now for the players to guess as its not as easy to assume baised on ping compared to voobly.

Big congratulations to Hera for winning with super high level of play and strategy, also Jordan with a mindblowing result. Don't think that any critique about gamestyle being too defensive makes sense.
It was a real pleasure to participate in this great event and watch afterwards even though i've been memed quite a lot 11

 

[eC_Gurke]

Knowing that Master of Templar was Mbl, and how Jordan struggled a lot vs Mbl on ladder, I just couldn't believe that Jordan would 3-1 Mbl and furthermore go and win 4-1 vs Yo, Jordan going to the finals is the same like Daut winning RBW3 the biggest surprise this year, I hope he keeps playing and being motivated like he already is, he is a legend.

I did feel the same tbh, just didnt like the disrespectful tone of your replies. A100% agree with this comment though. Cheers.

 

[dave_hun]

Aaaand I have 14, not 16.

Seems we posted the same guesses. I trusted my instinct on the malians G1 being Dogao. Oh well.

 

[kOa_Master]

I love the fact that:
a) I have't seen anybody with a correct guessing 16/16 so far - but the overall guessing power over viewers is amazingly good!
b) Viper knows his opponents best - as the only player, he guessed everyone correct (I think this was already the case with HC3)
c) This thread was great fun to read and hey, at least I've got 6/8 from the upper bracket I posted earlier, that makes me happy

 

[Thorben the Unjust]

b) Viper knows his opponents best - as the only player, he guessed everyone correct (I think this was already the case with HC3)

I think only Villese, not Viper, got every HC3 player correct

 

[SmashFascists]

I usually hate aoezone threads cuz i find some people here overly negative but i have to say i enjoyed reading this one. Not only the comments about guessing players (which i liked alot) but even the ones criticizing the games, most notably my boring play.

Believe it or not it actually made me question a few things i did, how i was overly defensive and predictable and i managed to give it some thought and sneak in some different ideas for the final.

I don't mind paying defensive and macroing, and while some think its boring, i think its sometimes the right call and i would always play to win for these tourneys. However in some games i overdid the defense and early walling and played too cautious, which was a bad thing and on top of that boring for viewers.

So yeah i actually took a bit of inspiration from this thread and also from losing arabia vs viper to mix up my playstyle a tiny bit for the finals to surprise my opponent.

Big takeaway from this tourney for me -> Theoretically, defensive style is the best for many reasons (more army numbers, easier mango micro, etc) but practically its soooo much easier to put pressure and force mistakes from your opponent. I'm not the best aggro player, i think larry is but i think its something im gonna work on for the future

+1 to making these threads more often, would give me a positive reason to read aoezone instead of just running into people who hate me and wanna make it known 11

Bulgarians on Arabia and Celt Paladins, as well as playing less offensive against Liereyy but more offensive against Jordan was just nice adaption. Clever drafting and anticipation. Glad you finally got such a big tournament win!

 

[MaSmOrRa]

I love the fact that:
a) I have't seen anybody with a correct guessing 16/16 so far - but the overall guessing power over viewers is amazingly good!
b) Viper knows his opponents best - as the only player, he guessed everyone correct (I think this was already the case with HC3)
c) This thread was great fun to read and hey, at least I've got 6/8 from the upper bracket I posted earlier, that makes me happy

My guess had Viper/Jordan swapped, but I ended up putting them in the correct order in the competition form.

T90 said 105 people got 16/16.
I like to think we played a role in so many people having it right with this thread!

 

[thepitzaboy]

I wanted to thank you guys for the pages of awesome speculation throughout Hidden Cup 4. This thread was quality throughout the tournament and I greatly appreciated the fun, detailed, and generally respectful comments posted by you all. It’s sadly rare on aoezone these days, to the point where I decided against starting such threads myself going forward. Which kinda breaks my heart, as this is the type of stuff this website should be about.

Loved how in HC4 the fans were more correct than ever, and players were wrong in more cases than ever. Kinda wish we had asked players properly back in the voobly days so we could compare guessing in the peer to peer(voobly) to server days.

It’s great to see how much individuality exists within such a tight & competitive pro scene. One of many things that makes our scene unique. Thanks again.

blah blah sob sob we dont care, next hidden cup when? :P

 

[MaSmOrRa]

My guess had Viper/Jordan swapped, but I ended up putting them in the correct order in the competition form.

T90 said 105 people got 16/16.
I like to think we played a role in so many people having it right with this thread!

Sorry I had to abandon ship @Jeowaypoint , but that Huns vs Byz game on Cross made it crystal clear Ivaylo was TheViper.

For me the game of the tournament and an absolutely mindblowing performance by Viper.

 

[IamJeo]

@MaSmOrRa np 11! The fun for me was figuring out my list as early as possible, after ro16 I already had set on it, having done all detective work (which I and a friend did, a lot).

There was less challenge come later stages, and I quickly realized that whatever the case, Jordan is playing good enough to fool me. The series vs Yo made me again rest merrily on my choice. Admiral even exhibited non-Jordan eapm graphs (aoe2insights) and peaks in several (almost all) games, exceeding TheViper(!)... like I did not expect Jordan to get 120-peaks and sustained 100 eapm I associate only with viper+tempos, when most recs it is almost Villese-like (slow but accurate and unaggressive army usage, little micro) 40-50 average and mere 60peaks.

But in fact it was Viper who fooled me to be Jordan, using tricks and mechanics visible in recs such as shift-queing scout behind next deer lure, using Jordan-like scouting (sheep shift que habits). We were freaking certain... and Ivaylos average apm was lower than that of Admiral.

Come second semifinal I realized that Jordan is beast moding, that is nice enough a prize to have and just decided to enjoy.

Congratz to Jordan for the comeback.

 

[RobChang]

Got 14/16 only mixing up Dogao and Nicov (screw you for picking Islands 11) and felt like most of them were pretty easy to spot actually.

Yeah that one was tricky, no worries. You gotta think, Saracens on Islands, thats a laaaan play from the finals, dogaos teammate, Tatars on Arabia, thats what Nicov did in the qualies and MbL in the showmatch. But if you looked at the draft, you saw that they didnt really have much different alternatives and these civs were just desperate late picks so less identifiable information.

John couldnt be dogao for me, because he did the TC lure and the second sheep 6th vill thingy. None, I have ever seen from dogao. Nicov does the second sheep thingy, but didnt tc lure, but knowing that nicov prepares a lot, and with totally different players, I felt like he could be most likely the one that learnt it between qualifiers and mainevent. Also that bela didnt play islands as homemap which would have revealed a lot, but that was just because Ivaylo picked it before him. So he could not play it except winning a map. And that day Dogao was just unlucky in many cases.

It was basically a trirumvate that was possible for Bela Pope and Little John ie. dogao nicov villese. But with looking at the dark ages aka who does 3rd 4th houses together, who tc lures, who makes the sheep thingy it was quite an 1-1 relation.
Villese = Tc Lure, Sheep thingy, 3rd 4th house
Dogao = no tc lure, no sheep thingy, 3rd 4th house
Nicov = tc lure maybe, sheep thingy, no 3rd 4th house

Also Koreans on Mudflow just felt so Rubenstock strat and the way Pope performed it, it felt like not being his, but one of his teammates ideas.

Also some minor tells, like pope saying gg gl next after being reverse swept was making me lean a bit towards villese from the three, having benefited from reverse swepts in the past, or gg gl by John as if he knew he faced his teammate.

Btw @Nicov fantastic play in this first arabia game, really well done and fun to watch.

 

[AceW]

A little bit surprised that all of the standard guesses are correct.
That was never the case in HC1-HC3 11. There was always a little surprise in those HCs.


Still.. What a tournament! The level of competition in this was crazy.
Huge respect for Hera beating Tatoh, Liereyy, Viper and Jordan to win HC.

And Jordan. sure he had the "easier" part of the bracket. But beating Mbl, Accm and Yo (4:1!) and giving us some Viper vibes.. wow Jordan is back!

Me not wanting Le Loi to be Tatoh messed up my entire predictiones 11 but still had a blast watching HC.
Time to fall into post HC depression :D