Current Situation on Aoe4 and Aoe2

[i_no_english]

Unless I'm reading this wrong, you've got -19.5% for AOE2:DE after one month and -33.9% for AOE4 after one month. That's not similar, that's a significant difference.

Yes we would expect drop-off after release, but AOE4's player count is decaying at a more rapid rate.

Which is totally expected and explained by the fact that AOE2DE started off with a much more solid player base because people were basically playing the same game on Voobly and HD already.

 

[MaSmOrRa]

Which is totally expected and explained by the fact that AOE2DE started off with a much more solid player base because people were basically playing the same game on Voobly and HD already.

Good point!
I myself think it's mostly because Microsoft marketed AoE4 a loooot more aggressively than DE2, which means a lot of people who don't actually like RTS games ended up buying it cause they saw it everywhere.

I think Fall is implying the decline was sharper in AoE4 cause the game is just not good enough and maybe he's right, or maybe its a combination of all these factors...We just don't know.

I think at this point, so early after AoE4's release, whatever conclusion we come to will always be informed by our own biases. We just don't have enough data to make an educated guess in my opinion.

 

[Fall]

Good point!
I myself think it's mostly because Microsoft marketed AoE4 a loooot more aggressively than DE2, which means a lot of people who don't actually like RTS games ended up buying it cause they saw it everywhere.

I think Fall is implying the decline was sharper in AoE4 cause the game is just not good enough and maybe he's right, or maybe its a combination of all these factors...We just don't know.

I think at this point, so early after AoE4's release, whatever conclusion we come to will always be informed by our own biases. We just don't have enough data to make an educated guess in my opinion.

Nope, not making conclusions, just pointing out that the decline is not similar, as I think you initially said. There might be good reasons for that, but the decline after AOE2:DE was not so marked as it was for AOE4.

Edit:

Although now that I actually look at releases on steam of AAA games, AOE4's rate of decline is unusual, so now I do think there is something there.

 

[z3us]

Happy to report that one things common between aoe2 and aoe4 is Deathcounter0 being downvoted.

Super happy to report that he is not even wrong here 11, yet he is being downvoted. I did my part, did you?

 

[HelloWorld]

Ok here are the stats for the 1st month of existence of aoe4, despite all the positive vibes, promotion and all the invasive marketing they tried:View attachment 196704
With also an owner estimation around 1.2 M according to steamdb.info, i can't fully see the potential we were told and it seems not only the "haters" think about the same as their own player base is going down quickly, i will update this within 2 months

That's because the game has so many exploits and bugs and balance issues and the devs are even slower than Forgotten Empires in fixing them. A lot ( including me) are waiting for the next patch.

 

[Akos04]

Cyberpunk fanbase about glitches: Trash game, never play it again
aoe4 (it is as bugged as Cyberpunk) fanbase: take my salary devs, I love you so much <333

 

[oozkan]

Just watched @Nili_AoE 's WTF happened, oh man it is disappointing to see my favorite streamers Viper and Nili are the first ones who abandoned the ship. Comparing more than year old stats of DE and launch stats of AOE4 is unfair. I subbed to them for months (zero regrets there, especially Nili provided me very quality entertainment), so this is coming from a person who really supports your effort sincerely.

Comments about Vivi are also very biased, first of all mentioned Vivi like a small guy and others as giants, funny enough, vice versa Vivi was more popular and even his streams were more popular than Yo at some point. Secondly asking money from viewers before tournaments never mentioned, which was claimed as the main source of toxicity by Chinese users. Money which will eventually spent on brothels, gambling but anyway it is his money... So all Nili's take from that thread is Vivi's point and he sided with him by accusing all Chinese viewers being toxic because they are fanboys of others.

Additionally there is an unfortunate moment which he quoted "if you are streamer you have to accept that, streamers are also human beings" to describe people who defended toxicity. Don't get me wrong, I've seen Nili and Viper doing commercials many times, even controversial ones for some people (like some people thought, poker is gambling but Nili didn't) which I didn't see any problems. It is business and they are getting paid for advertisement, I respect that. But on the other hand I've never seen Viper and Nili begging for money before tournaments for success. If they would do that and failed, they would end up a toxic chat for sure, in the end you reap what you saw.

Then here is my response: "If you are a streamer who is asking money/gifts before tournaments to perform, and you failed, you have to accept some kind of complaining in your streams." You can name it toxicity or whatever you want but you already put money above your human being by asking it at the beginning.

My two cents, Vivi was just looking for an excuse to switch AOE4, if he had any problems with toxicity, he would stop streaming, not playing the game. These cheap excuses are really funny:

+ Hey bro, my chat is too toxic, so I will stop playing AOE2
- So what are you gonna do?
+ I will stream AOE4 to same toxic viewers.

Lol. Just be straight like Viper did with FB switch, say "I feel like I am gonna earn more if I switch, so I am doing it"

 

[Snizl]

Good point!
I myself think it's mostly because Microsoft marketed AoE4 a loooot more aggressively than DE2, which means a lot of people who don't actually like RTS games ended up buying it cause they saw it everywhere.

I think Fall is implying the decline was sharper in AoE4 cause the game is just not good enough and maybe he's right, or maybe its a combination of all these factors...We just don't know.

I think at this point, so early after AoE4's release, whatever conclusion we come to will always be informed by our own biases. We just don't have enough data to make an educated guess in my opinion.

An additional point is, that AoE4 is free on the game pass, so all those players aren't even considered here. I expect the decline to be even stronger, if you consider those players as well (because, well they could try it for free instead of having to buy it, so I expect less retention), but it is an additional strongly confounding factor.

 

[MaSmOrRa]

An additional point is, that AoE4 is free on the game pass, so all those players aren't even considered here. I expect the decline to be even stronger, if you consider those players as well (because, well they could try it for free instead of having to buy it, so I expect less retention), but it is an additional strongly confounding factor.

Do we know for sure that these steam numbers include people who got the game through game pass? Cause you can only buy game pass through the Microsoft store, right?

If the current numbers on Steam really do include game pass subscriptions, then that really does not bode well for AoE4 because then I'd expect the numbers to drop even more after the game pass deal finishes...
But again I don't know if that's case.

 

[z3us]

Do we know for sure that these steam numbers include people who got the game through game pass? Cause you can only buy game pass through the Microsoft store, right?

I read in one of the threads that you can link game pass to steam and get the game on steam. Not sure how accurate the info is.

 

[doacid]

after the game pass deal finishes...

I think that deal never ends, it just keeps coming back again and again forever.
It's supposedly only for first time Gamepass users, however you can get it basically forever.

Get the deal with a new account---> install the games you want---> switch to old account to play them as normal. It works flawlessly.

The Xbox app for Windows (what you use to install games) sucks ass BIG TIME but that catalog of games for 4€/year is too hard to pass.

 

[MaSmOrRa]

I read in one of the threads that you can link game pass to steam and get the game on steam. Not sure how accurate the info is.

You probably read it from me!
That's not entirely accurate though: you can link your account, but you are still getting the game from the microsoft store, you just happen to benefit from Steam features once everything is connected (friends list, etc.).

Anyway, Robo has cleared this up for me: game pass users ARE NOT included in Steam numbers.

 

[Rorarimbo]

Anyway, Robo has cleared this up for me: game pass users ARE NOT included in Steam numbers.

I suspected to be the case. It is very hard to assess how much they could be. But I think a drop among them would be even greater as there should be alot players who just wanted to try with little to no money and wouldnt commit long turm.

Meanwhile I now saw numbers that I was waiting for to get some idea about the total number of MP players in AoE4 compared to AoE2 DE. According to aoeiv.net there are 51,536 "rated' 1v1 players vs 37001 1v1 rated players in DE according to aoe2.net. Team games are harder to compare as 2v2, 3v3, 4v4 are counted separately for AoE4. At the same time under "custom" in AoE4 are shown 177612 entries vs 179912 "unranked" entries for DE2.

I am guessing these ratings for both games work in a similar way. If you havent played in the last month you are out. After a month since release AoE4 "ranking" should not only accomulate more players, it should start loosing those inactive as well. Of course there is no official ladder in AoE4 but as far as I know the match making works in a similar way and it now includes both Steam and Xbox accounts. With all the limitation in this comparison 51.5K vs 37K does not strike me as big difference when AoE4 is as hot it would ever be. It looks even worse if you compare the "casual" lobby players 177.6K vs 179.9K, DE2 having the advantage.

As for Steam numbers. Last week for the first time there were non-peak hours ( after midnight in Europe) when DE + HD had more players than AoE4. I wouldnt be surprised if DE alone achieves this within a week. Right now it is 15641 players on AoE4 vs 13594 players on DE2 , too close for comfort.

 

[MaSmOrRa]

Right now it is 15641 players on AoE4 vs 13594 players on DE2 , too close for comfort.

Aoe4 just received an update, don't know if that somehow messes up the numbers.

Otherwise that would indeed be very surprising...

 

[Rorarimbo]

Aoe4 just received an update, don't know if that somehow messes up the numbers.

Otherwise that would indeed be very surprising...

I cant say how impactful an update is. But comparing to other days it is not so surprising. As a matter of fact last week the decrease in numbers for AoE4 has started to slow down. It is now a curve, not a straight line. The question is whwn is it going to get flat? On the other hand AoE2 numbers were going down a tiny bit since AoE4 release but now AoE2 is going upwards a bit. So this "positive" change for both games could be related to holidays or smth else.

 

[MusashiAOE]

I think AOE2 is going to be just fine

spear

Watch "spear" on Streamable.

streamable.com

 

[SuperskinnyBLS]

I think AOE2 is going to be just fine

spear

Watch "spear" on Streamable.

streamable.com

Aoe 4 is in good hands for people who are aoe2 fans like me

 

[lecracheursagacite]

Aoe 4 is in good hands for people who are aoe2 fans like me

insubordinate soldiers is for historical accuracy

edit: wait I see that I missed that the spearman was actually attacking the targets

 

[kw1k000000]

I cant say how impactful an update is.

Its having a lot of impact

 

[kw1k000000]

This aoe4 release, patches and balance disasters are making FE look great in comparison. People just forget how bad FE has been for aoe2:DE

 

[z3us]

 

[kw1k000000]

View attachment 196715

we just need to get the tournament pipeline sorted out for the pro scene to survive. Player base for aoe2 will largely remain.

 

[Baron Icey Harkonnen]

Haven't bought AGE 4.
Won't buy it until there is a scenario editor.

 

[Baron Icey Harkonnen]

we just need to get the tournament pipeline sorted out for the pro scene to survive. Player base for aoe2 will largely remain.

Modding keeps games alive.

 

[z3us]

we just need to get the tournament pipeline sorted out for the pro scene to survive. Player base for aoe2 will largely remain.

Yeah, we have Nilli to thank for the lack of it.