I spent last weekend collecting all data for the past three months for all Nation Cup participants (391). This data includes the RM – 1v1 and the RM – TG rating on the respective ladders. Big thanks to Genette, who showed me a relatively fast way to collect this data. But still I had to go over 391 profiles to extract it.
The reason why I did this is not only because I have nothing better to do, but in a way trying to predict the winner of the Nations Cup, based on the form of the players over the past three months.
Out of this data follows the average rating per player per nation. The top 4 players of a nation are used to create the team’s average, for example Brazil A:
[tbody]
[/tbody]Over the past three months the top 4 players ( RiuT, dogao, F1Re and Goku) of Brazil A have an average TG rating of 2100.
Result*:
[tbody]
[/tbody]*note: the data was extracted on Saturday May 30th, any games played after that are not included in these statistics.
According to the above mentioned list, the Final Round Robin Stage, would only include Brazil A, Canada, Argentina A and Vietnam A with China A being a close 5th.
My prediction and why:
Below the order I personally think the nations will end up this Nations Cup.
Please note that all that is mentioned below are personal opinions and are not meant to harm anyone in any way.
1. Brazil A
Brazil A came second in Nations Cup 2014. This year they enter with the same team, but this year dogao is also part of Brazil A. Last year dogao played for Brazil B and with the addition of dogao, a top (TG) player, Brazil A might be able to win the Nations Cup this year. dogao is in TG rating (on average) a close second to RiuT, dogao also gained some experience in beating SY due to beating them for the 3rd place in the War is Coming. The moment I’m writing this, the number 2-5 on the Voobly TG ladder are GoKu_, dogao, F1Re and RiuT in that order.
2. China A
China A is the team to beat as the holders of the Nations Cup and after all the commotion surrounding SY during WiC. China A also added to their team from the China B team, this year xiaoxiong will play for China A instead of China B. A worthy addition, ranking 3rd on their team list, based on the TG average rating over the past three months.
3. Vietnam A
The battle for 3rd place is a close one for me, it is between Vietnam A, Argentina A and Canada. I put Vietnam A in 3rd spot because of the underachievement of the Dreamers zZ in WiC. VNS A beat KGB in WiC to secure the 7th place, however VNS was without arguably their best player BacT, who played for TyRanT Warlords that finished 2nd in WiC. Last year Vietnam A finished 5th in the Nations Cup, with Brazil B and Argentina A in front of them, outside of the top 2.
4. Canada
Again a close call between Canada and Argentina A. I think mentalist improved a lot since Nation Cup 2014, but in my opinion and with no disrespect whatsoever it strongly depends on _Ra_ if he can bring his A game, unlike in the resent WSVG tournament match. However he was one of the few remaining players of KGB that finish WiC, which shows strong determination and will to end the tournament with their head held high. Chris is the number 1 TG player at the moment, according to the Voobly TG ladder.
5. Argentina A
Juan and Gary are very strong team game players; however the other players, like Fedex and Patin have not played a single rated match the past three months. Nicov has not played many games either, so you could say that they could be quite rusty.
Like I have said before, Dreamers zZ really disappointed in WiC losing to poZ (basically Hong Kong A) in the Dounle Elimination stage. The only addition to the team from zZ and NC2014 is Milo (VN_MoOniTe_), who played for Argentina B last year.
Dark horses:
Below are a couple of dark horses mentioned, again my opinion. These are in random order.
1. (czech) Czech A
Czech A has a couple of new players, (czech) Mango, (czech) trabant and (czech) Ovenka, “promoted” from Czech B. Every player of Czech A, except for (czech) Lojza, was part of the winning team of RTS League season 36, earlier this year. Czech A finished 9th last year in the Nation Cup.
2. Germany A
Germany A has added to their selection from Germany B, with nC_Andorin and nC_pedro. 6 out of the 7 players have played together in WiC under the name nC & Friends & arma, they got knocked out in the Double Elimination stage by VNS A. Germany A has also one of the best TG players of the moment in Aantan.
3. Finland
With players like NothernPike and Zuppi playing really well lately and very often together with other NaBs members, it isn’t imaginable that Finland can be held responsible for potential upsets. This Finland team is the same that entered the Nations Cup last year; however I believe that some players improved quite a lot. The effectiveness of the comeback of DreaIVIS for another Nations Cup will strongly depend on how rusty he is. And I wouldn’t be surprised to see a tower rush by Rubenstock.
4. Norway A
TheViper, arguably the best player at this moment, was absent last year. Now that he is part of a team with _MbL_ amongst others, it is possible for Norway A to end up in the top 10. _MbL_ is rating wise the strongest Norway A TG player. Only three of the players have represented their country last year.
5. (hong kong) Hong Kong
Hong Kong is almost the same team as Poison of Zone, who finished 6th in WiC. Bvirus/Tsunami and tobi are the Portuguese players who played for poZ in WiC. Most of the replacement options have played in WiC as well: (hong kong) poZ_mundi, (hong kong) _kyo, (hong kong) poZ_cloud and (hong kong) poZ_ratS. These 4 players and (hong kong) Ding have played in the last Nations Cup as Hong Kong and finished as 6th, as they did in WiC.
6. Brazil B
Brazil B mostly consists of L_Clan_ players who played in WiC together, amongst others FeAge, Wrath, Bruh and Miguel. L_Clan_ beat SY for the 3rd place in WiC and most of these players have played for Brazil B and finished 4th in Nations Cup 2014. But with the loss of dogao I think it will be though for Brazil B this year to finish in the top 4 again.
7. USA A
A lot of aoczone drama arose when Feanor and Melkor were allowed to play for USA, after playing for the UK last year. USA A finished 10th last year in the Nation Cup. Their top TG player whack hasn’t played much lately, but I am pleasantly surprised by Influenza the past couple of months. Plus Hasan is always a decent player, no matter how much plays or how rusty he is.
8. China D
China D practically consists of players that only play on Voobly China. I believe that China D might be better than China B, recent results vs China A/B have shown that they are able to beat them. They also have an "advantage" that the China D players are not really well known by the non-Asian opposition and can easily be underestimated because of that. Their top TG player Jax is in the top 4 of the Chinese TG ladder three times with different nicknames; Eminme is second on the same ladder. All with win percentages over 65%. In my opinion China D is a force to be reckoned with.
The reason why I did this is not only because I have nothing better to do, but in a way trying to predict the winner of the Nations Cup, based on the form of the players over the past three months.
Out of this data follows the average rating per player per nation. The top 4 players of a nation are used to create the team’s average, for example Brazil A:
Player | TG Rating |
RiuT | 2154 |
dogao | 2130 |
F1Re | 2073 |
Goku | 2043 |
St4rk | 1874 |
Result*:
Teams | Average TG Rating |
1. Brazil A | 2100 |
2. Canada | 2067 |
3. Argentina A | 2027 |
4. Vietnam A | 2021 |
5. China A | 2019 |
6. Germany A | 1980 |
7. (czech) Czech A | 1980 |
8. Japan A | 1940 |
9. Brazil C | 1928 |
10. Brazil B | 1926 |
11. Turkey A | 1922 |
12. China D | 1915 |
13. Finland | 1907 |
14. (hong kong) Hong Kong | 1901 |
15. Norway A | 1895 |
According to the above mentioned list, the Final Round Robin Stage, would only include Brazil A, Canada, Argentina A and Vietnam A with China A being a close 5th.
My prediction and why:
Below the order I personally think the nations will end up this Nations Cup.
Please note that all that is mentioned below are personal opinions and are not meant to harm anyone in any way.
1. Brazil A
Brazil A came second in Nations Cup 2014. This year they enter with the same team, but this year dogao is also part of Brazil A. Last year dogao played for Brazil B and with the addition of dogao, a top (TG) player, Brazil A might be able to win the Nations Cup this year. dogao is in TG rating (on average) a close second to RiuT, dogao also gained some experience in beating SY due to beating them for the 3rd place in the War is Coming. The moment I’m writing this, the number 2-5 on the Voobly TG ladder are GoKu_, dogao, F1Re and RiuT in that order.
2. China A
China A is the team to beat as the holders of the Nations Cup and after all the commotion surrounding SY during WiC. China A also added to their team from the China B team, this year xiaoxiong will play for China A instead of China B. A worthy addition, ranking 3rd on their team list, based on the TG average rating over the past three months.
3. Vietnam A
The battle for 3rd place is a close one for me, it is between Vietnam A, Argentina A and Canada. I put Vietnam A in 3rd spot because of the underachievement of the Dreamers zZ in WiC. VNS A beat KGB in WiC to secure the 7th place, however VNS was without arguably their best player BacT, who played for TyRanT Warlords that finished 2nd in WiC. Last year Vietnam A finished 5th in the Nations Cup, with Brazil B and Argentina A in front of them, outside of the top 2.
4. Canada
Again a close call between Canada and Argentina A. I think mentalist improved a lot since Nation Cup 2014, but in my opinion and with no disrespect whatsoever it strongly depends on _Ra_ if he can bring his A game, unlike in the resent WSVG tournament match. However he was one of the few remaining players of KGB that finish WiC, which shows strong determination and will to end the tournament with their head held high. Chris is the number 1 TG player at the moment, according to the Voobly TG ladder.
5. Argentina A
Juan and Gary are very strong team game players; however the other players, like Fedex and Patin have not played a single rated match the past three months. Nicov has not played many games either, so you could say that they could be quite rusty.
Like I have said before, Dreamers zZ really disappointed in WiC losing to poZ (basically Hong Kong A) in the Dounle Elimination stage. The only addition to the team from zZ and NC2014 is Milo (VN_MoOniTe_), who played for Argentina B last year.
Dark horses:
Below are a couple of dark horses mentioned, again my opinion. These are in random order.
1. (czech) Czech A
Czech A has a couple of new players, (czech) Mango, (czech) trabant and (czech) Ovenka, “promoted” from Czech B. Every player of Czech A, except for (czech) Lojza, was part of the winning team of RTS League season 36, earlier this year. Czech A finished 9th last year in the Nation Cup.
2. Germany A
Germany A has added to their selection from Germany B, with nC_Andorin and nC_pedro. 6 out of the 7 players have played together in WiC under the name nC & Friends & arma, they got knocked out in the Double Elimination stage by VNS A. Germany A has also one of the best TG players of the moment in Aantan.
3. Finland
With players like NothernPike and Zuppi playing really well lately and very often together with other NaBs members, it isn’t imaginable that Finland can be held responsible for potential upsets. This Finland team is the same that entered the Nations Cup last year; however I believe that some players improved quite a lot. The effectiveness of the comeback of DreaIVIS for another Nations Cup will strongly depend on how rusty he is. And I wouldn’t be surprised to see a tower rush by Rubenstock.
4. Norway A
TheViper, arguably the best player at this moment, was absent last year. Now that he is part of a team with _MbL_ amongst others, it is possible for Norway A to end up in the top 10. _MbL_ is rating wise the strongest Norway A TG player. Only three of the players have represented their country last year.
5. (hong kong) Hong Kong
Hong Kong is almost the same team as Poison of Zone, who finished 6th in WiC. Bvirus/Tsunami and tobi are the Portuguese players who played for poZ in WiC. Most of the replacement options have played in WiC as well: (hong kong) poZ_mundi, (hong kong) _kyo, (hong kong) poZ_cloud and (hong kong) poZ_ratS. These 4 players and (hong kong) Ding have played in the last Nations Cup as Hong Kong and finished as 6th, as they did in WiC.
6. Brazil B
Brazil B mostly consists of L_Clan_ players who played in WiC together, amongst others FeAge, Wrath, Bruh and Miguel. L_Clan_ beat SY for the 3rd place in WiC and most of these players have played for Brazil B and finished 4th in Nations Cup 2014. But with the loss of dogao I think it will be though for Brazil B this year to finish in the top 4 again.
7. USA A
A lot of aoczone drama arose when Feanor and Melkor were allowed to play for USA, after playing for the UK last year. USA A finished 10th last year in the Nation Cup. Their top TG player whack hasn’t played much lately, but I am pleasantly surprised by Influenza the past couple of months. Plus Hasan is always a decent player, no matter how much plays or how rusty he is.
8. China D
China D practically consists of players that only play on Voobly China. I believe that China D might be better than China B, recent results vs China A/B have shown that they are able to beat them. They also have an "advantage" that the China D players are not really well known by the non-Asian opposition and can easily be underestimated because of that. Their top TG player Jax is in the top 4 of the Chinese TG ladder three times with different nicknames; Eminme is second on the same ladder. All with win percentages over 65%. In my opinion China D is a force to be reckoned with.