If both Relic and FE are bad that suggests the real problem lies with whoever is responsible for them.It depends on who has the worst devs, Relic or FE. As much as we make fun of Relic, let's be honest for a moment, FE are ****. They have time and again proved they work at snail's pace, reacting after 6months, zero communication. If the major problems like TGs, ranked lobbies for all game modes, in-game map voting, better map pool, eliminating smurfs and TG elo inflation, pathing, TG balance etc are fixed AoE2 will have better numbers for sure. But, as you can see the list of major problems is long, and AoE4 has the adv of being the new kid in the block and a biased tournament coordinator.
I hope it is AoE2, but fear it will be AoE4 even thou the game would still be ****.