War is Coming: Duel stage analysis/opinion
AKA: To duel or not to duel.
Prediction: The following teams win their matches and stay in the winner’s bracket: Legends, Warlords, SY, Legion.
Prediction: The following top seeds will win their first round match in the WB, and lose their 2nd round match in the WB to the above teams, and will then be placed in the LB 2nd Round: Nadya’s Boys, Dreamers, PoJ, KGB.
The current standings with no duels to be played:
Division A: KGB vs Str8/SY B
Division B: PoJ vs NC/VNS
Division C: Dreamers vs VN/PoZ
Division D: Nadya’s Boys vs PL/CKF
The basics
There is no further reward for going out in the first or 2nd round of the loser’s bracket, other than an increased chance of getting the best game of the bracket award as you are playing 2x the number of games. As such, the first consideration for duelling teams is which of the likely top tier seeds in the LB they have the best chance of beating. However if a team believes they absolutely cannot beat any of the top seeds in the LB, they should try to stay until the 2nd round of the LB to maximise their chance of winning the “best game of the bracket” award and prize money.
Teams in Division A can swap to Division D by winning their duel. Teams in Division B can swap to division C by winning their duel.
Opinions
In my opinion, PoJ is the weakest of the top tier teams. KGB and Dreamers both have a core of 2k1-2k4 players, who have had a great deal of top tier tournament experience in the NC, and prior tournaments. Nadya’s Boys combine great teamwork with a wealth of experience in the form of Zuppi, and two of the most improved players in recent time in Lojza and Mentalist. With a large roster of excellent players and a solid DM lineup, they really have no weakness. This applies to PoJ, but to a lesser extent in every regard.
As such, I think that both VN and PoZ should challenge their opponents in order to try and sneak past PoJ into the round robin. Both teams have a solid shot, in particular PoZ if they can bring some of their stronger players to bear. (What is interesting is that PoZ will have to lose to PoJ in the first round of the WB to get into this situation. However, hopefully by the time of the 2nd round of the LB, PoZ will have taken some time for training, and will have more of their top tier players ready.)
VNS should not try to duel. They have a great chance at fending off any duel challenge and defeating PoJ to enter the round robin – IMO the best chance out of all of the lower seeded teams of reaching the RR.
SY B should duel. KGB simply have more tournament experience than Nadya’s Boys, as well as having in theory a stronger line up. SY B in particular are a very strong team, and I would give them low-moderate odds of defeating Nadya’s Boys to reach the RR. However if they stay where they are, I think their chances of defeating KGB are slim to 0. Str8 could also hedge their bets and choose not to duel if SY B does duel. This would give them an easier 1st round LB match vs PL, giving them a higher chance of winning the best match of the LB award and prize money.
Conclusions
SY B: Should duel PL to face Nadya’s Boys and reach the RR. Duel initiated
Str8: Should not duel, in order to face PL and have a better chance to reach the 2nd round of the LB and have an increased chance to win the ‘best game of the bracket’ award.
NC: Should duel PoZ to avoid VNS and have a better chance to reach the 2nd round of the LB and have an increased chance to win the ‘best game of the bracket’ award.
VNS: Should not duel to face PoJ and reach the RR.
VN: Should duel VNS to face PoJ and reach the RR. Duel initiated
PoZ: Should duel NC to face PoJ and reach the RR.
PL: Should not duel as they cannot defeat SY B. They should hope that Str8 duels CKF and somehow wins.
CKF: Should not duel to face Nadya’s Boys and reach the RR. CKF is still probably a stronger team than SY B and should look to the match vs Nadya's Boys and not duel.
A comprehensive preview of the RO16 will be coming once the duels have been completed and the final brackets and seedings are known. GL All!
AKA: To duel or not to duel.
Prediction: The following teams win their matches and stay in the winner’s bracket: Legends, Warlords, SY, Legion.
Prediction: The following top seeds will win their first round match in the WB, and lose their 2nd round match in the WB to the above teams, and will then be placed in the LB 2nd Round: Nadya’s Boys, Dreamers, PoJ, KGB.
The current standings with no duels to be played:
Division A: KGB vs Str8/SY B
Division B: PoJ vs NC/VNS
Division C: Dreamers vs VN/PoZ
Division D: Nadya’s Boys vs PL/CKF
The basics
There is no further reward for going out in the first or 2nd round of the loser’s bracket, other than an increased chance of getting the best game of the bracket award as you are playing 2x the number of games. As such, the first consideration for duelling teams is which of the likely top tier seeds in the LB they have the best chance of beating. However if a team believes they absolutely cannot beat any of the top seeds in the LB, they should try to stay until the 2nd round of the LB to maximise their chance of winning the “best game of the bracket” award and prize money.
Teams in Division A can swap to Division D by winning their duel. Teams in Division B can swap to division C by winning their duel.
Opinions
In my opinion, PoJ is the weakest of the top tier teams. KGB and Dreamers both have a core of 2k1-2k4 players, who have had a great deal of top tier tournament experience in the NC, and prior tournaments. Nadya’s Boys combine great teamwork with a wealth of experience in the form of Zuppi, and two of the most improved players in recent time in Lojza and Mentalist. With a large roster of excellent players and a solid DM lineup, they really have no weakness. This applies to PoJ, but to a lesser extent in every regard.
As such, I think that both VN and PoZ should challenge their opponents in order to try and sneak past PoJ into the round robin. Both teams have a solid shot, in particular PoZ if they can bring some of their stronger players to bear. (What is interesting is that PoZ will have to lose to PoJ in the first round of the WB to get into this situation. However, hopefully by the time of the 2nd round of the LB, PoZ will have taken some time for training, and will have more of their top tier players ready.)
VNS should not try to duel. They have a great chance at fending off any duel challenge and defeating PoJ to enter the round robin – IMO the best chance out of all of the lower seeded teams of reaching the RR.
SY B should duel. KGB simply have more tournament experience than Nadya’s Boys, as well as having in theory a stronger line up. SY B in particular are a very strong team, and I would give them low-moderate odds of defeating Nadya’s Boys to reach the RR. However if they stay where they are, I think their chances of defeating KGB are slim to 0. Str8 could also hedge their bets and choose not to duel if SY B does duel. This would give them an easier 1st round LB match vs PL, giving them a higher chance of winning the best match of the LB award and prize money.
Conclusions
SY B: Should duel PL to face Nadya’s Boys and reach the RR. Duel initiated
Str8: Should not duel, in order to face PL and have a better chance to reach the 2nd round of the LB and have an increased chance to win the ‘best game of the bracket’ award.
NC: Should duel PoZ to avoid VNS and have a better chance to reach the 2nd round of the LB and have an increased chance to win the ‘best game of the bracket’ award.
VNS: Should not duel to face PoJ and reach the RR.
VN: Should duel VNS to face PoJ and reach the RR. Duel initiated
PoZ: Should duel NC to face PoJ and reach the RR.
PL: Should not duel as they cannot defeat SY B. They should hope that Str8 duels CKF and somehow wins.
CKF: Should not duel to face Nadya’s Boys and reach the RR. CKF is still probably a stronger team than SY B and should look to the match vs Nadya's Boys and not duel.
A comprehensive preview of the RO16 will be coming once the duels have been completed and the final brackets and seedings are known. GL All!