That Barles's picture was used on his liquipedia in the past, but it is not right now, so I would guess he doesn't want it to be usedI found Pictures for both Barles and Valas from rage Forest website
You are referring to Vilesse.That's also clearly not Valas. We've seen him on Red Bull a few times with webcam and he looks nothing like that
Yes, I was aware of that picture but wasn't sure whether it would be fine to use it and also I was too lazy to look for other sources than liquipedia.That Barles's picture was used on his liquipedia in the past, but it is not right now, so I would guess he doesn't want it to be used
Valas has played on webcam in RBW4 (what Liam is probably referring to) as well as in BoA3. I agree that the picture looks quite different.You are referring to Vilesse.
Player | Odds - my guess | Odds - Nili's guess | Result Q1 |
JorDan | 90% | 87% | Ro64 - Lost to Ganji (0-2) |
Nicov | 90% | 80% | Qualified |
ACCM | 90% | 75% | Ro8 - Lost to Nicov (3-4) |
MbL | 90% | 86% | Qualified |
Sitaux | 70% | 60% | Ro16 - Lost to Daniel (2-3) |
dogao | 50% | 69% | Ro8 - Lost to MbL (0-4) |
miguel | 40% | 14% | Ro32 - Lost to dogao (0-2) |
Capoch | 40% | 45% | Qualified |
Fat_Dragon | 30% | 35% | Ro32 - Lost to Valas (1-2) |
BacT | 30% | 10% | Ro32 - Lost to Running (0-2) |
Barles | 30% | 25% | Ro16 - Lost to Capoch (1-3) |
slam | 30% | 37% | Ro16 - Lost to dogao (1-3) |
F1Re | 20% | 14% | Ro16 - Lost to MbL (0-3) |
Valas | 20% | 25% | Ro8 - Lost to Daniel (0-4) |
classicpro | 20% | 33% | Ro16 - Lost to Nicov (2-3) |
The_Dragonstar | 10% | 8% | Ro64 - Lost to TheMax (0-2) |
Dark | 5% | 8% | Ro32 - Lost to Sebastian2002 (0-2) |
BadBoy | 5% | 5% | did not play |
SongSong | 5% | 8% | did not play |
Daniel | 5% | 14% | Qualified |
saymyname | 5% | <5%* | did not play** |
PROject_Belgium | 5% | 15% | did not play** |
TheMax | 5% | <5%* | Ro16 - Lost to Ganji (2-3) |
Running | <5%* | 8% | Ro16 - Lost to ACCM (1-3) |
DracKeN | <5%* | 8% | Ro32 - Lost to slam (0-2) |
FreakinAndy | <5%* | 5% | Ro128 - Lost to Bad Koala (1-2) |
Ganji | <5%* | 5% | Ro8 - Lost to Capoch (1-4) |
Margougou | <5%* | 5% | Ro32 - Lost to Daniel (0-2) |
Nili | <5%* | 6% | Ro32 - Lost to F1Re (0-2) |
I imagine the total amount should be 800% (since there are 8 places)? I know nothing about statistics tho, but that should be how to do it? (but since you can try 2 times for 4 of the spots, and you have to leave out the 4 people who qualified the first time for the other 4 spots, maybe that complicates calculations a bit idk)* I left 15% to be spread across all non-mentioned players, Nili apparently left 10%
Yes, I assumed the total amount to be 800% and so did Nili. I intentionally only assigned 785% of those cause there is always a chance for other players to qualify as well. I believe Nili's guesses add up to 790%, leaving 10% "unused".I imagine the total amount should be 800% (since there are 8 places)? I know nothing about statistics tho, but that should be how to do it? (but since you can try 2 times for 4 of the spots, and you have to leave out the 4 people who qualified the first time for the other 4 spots, maybe that complicates calculations a bit idk)
As mentioned the guesses were from last week already. I don't think many people would have thought that Ganji has a high chance of qualifying and TheMax was kinda inactive and not into EW so it was quite unclear whether he would sign up. The 5 vs 6% different was probably due to him having 1% left over in the end and wanting to be optimistic. Anyway, he mentions TheMax in the video so better rely on his own explanations.lol @ nili thinking he has a better chance than ganji and themax
Yes, highest rating though, not current (not sure whether your order reflects that)The seeding is based only on Empire Wars 1v1 rating, right?
ah, alright that makes sense. My memory doesnt reach that far back.Valas has played on webcam in RBW4
No, I took the current rating. So there is probably some difference in order, but at least 6 should be the same players.Yes, highest rating though, not current (not sure whether your order reflects that)
I think it's fine, just complicates things a bit if you want to work out the probabilities for the second qualifier specifically for example(but since you can try 2 times for 4 of the spots, and you have to leave out the 4 people who qualified the first time for the other 4 spots, maybe that complicates calculations a bit idk)
Chat pushed him to go higher with his own chancesAs mentioned the guesses were from last week already. I don't think many people would have thought that Ganji has a high chance of qualifying and TheMax was kinda inactive and not into EW so it was quite unclear whether he would sign up. The 5 vs 6% different was probably due to him having 1% left over in the end and wanting to be optimistic. Anyway, he mentions TheMax in the video so better rely on his own explanations.
Not sure whether top 32 will matter cause there will certainly be some players not checking in (e.g. I would still be kinda surprised to see Kasva playing and putting his leading spot in the AoE4 Road to Wololo point race at risk or Vodka, who mostly acts as an observer for the Road to Wololo broadcasts).Top 32, if the brackets were made now at 7 GMT:
View attachment 202514
Very notable registered players who are not in the top 32 based on highest EW 1v1 rating:
Alive, Bad Koala, Bl4ck, Chelo, IamChris, Cl3m3nT, Dratek, Dziamdziak, ElNoniro, Gabi, Hasan, Hope, Inc, JackK, jibatong, King_Marv, Kongen_42, Lobo, Lyx, Mihai06, Ozone, PaTiN, Pela (DS_Levi), Puerco Negro, RediRodion, Shades, Socksyy, SonyToprano (Umut), St4rk, Survivalist, Twigg, Uzzi, WhoCL
Idk how updated it is but now BacT, miguel and even ganji have big chances of joining the event since they or all probably stronger than SongSong and around classicpro EW skill. Sitaux vs Jordan it's a shame since one of them won't be on RBW.Meanwhile classicpro jumped up to rank 6, meaning he could face SongSong in the final, whom he annihilated 7-1 on the ladder today in order to get to that rating. JorDan could face Sitaux in that case.
It does not look like JorDan will improve his rating further so in order to avoid that Sitaux would need to overtake ACCM and meet slam instead.Idk how updated it is but now BacT, miguel and even ganji have big chances of joining the event since they or all probably stronger than SongSong and around classicpro EW skill. Sitaux vs Jordan it's a shame since one of them won't be on RBW.
I believe Jordan has being training like mad this week to put himself on a low risk of no qualifying position, but Sitaux is probably a top 10 player and top 3 of the players in the qualy imo so may be thoughBased on 1st qualifiers results ACCM is the biggest favorite. Jordan wasn't so strong, but if he plays his best, he is also big favorite. Then there is about dozen players, who has a decent chance to qualify. Will be an exciting weekend.