Hey guys,
Following patao's message comparing DauT and LaaaaaN's performances against the event's participants and the others that are in close range, I decided to take a look at past results over the past 7 months or so, going back to October 2018 (basically around the start of the NAC 2 qualifiers). I recorded all the games won by each MSC participant against the others. Only tournament games were taken into consideration, using Mungo_'s awesome tournament elo website.
Tournaments include: NAC 2 Qualifier 1 & 2, KotD 2, NAC 2, ECL SEA 1v1, HC 2 Qualifiers, DER Arena Cup and HC 2.
Using this data I made a matrix of 1v1 head-to-head between the players:
A few comments from this:
- Due to the format of NAC 2, participants to both that event and MSC have a lot more games between each other. This mostly makes DauT and Nicov statistics look quite bad, as they performed well against the other two players at NAC 2 (F1Re and JorDan_23, who didn't make the cut to MSC) but didn't have great success against the other 4 players. The lopsided series of NAC 2 also tend to inflate some numbers (Viper 5-0 Liereyy and DauT, TaToH 5-0 Nicov).
- MbL and Viper are the only players to share a perfectly neutral head-to-head. They met twice, in the group stages of NAC 2 (MbL won 3-1) and in the semifinals of HC 2 (Viper won 3-1).
- The MbL/TaToH rivalry is, to me, the most interesting match-up at the highest level these days. They have played 16 games between each other (2nd only to Viper & Liereyy 17 games) over the course of three series. TaToH seems to have the edge when it comes to high stakes matches, as he won both their elimination matches (NAC 2 semifinals, ECL SEA 1v1 final). Regardless, these players seem to be very evenly matched and could definitely be in the debate of "who is the 3rd best in the world behind Viper and Liereyy", which makes their dynamic really interesting to follow.
In addition to this, I made a table recording wins and losses per player against "groups" of players: against the top 5, against players ranked 6 to 10 and against players ranked 11 to 16.
The main limit to such an exercise is the very low amount of games that were played.
If you take only Hera's and Nicov's numbers, for example, you would think maybe these two players really didn't perform well in the events that are taken in consideration to make these statistics. However, nobody in their right mind would not include them in a top 16!
Of course, if you go further in the draw in each tournament, you get to play more games, which explains why the top 5 has played more games. NAC 2 is also a great booster as all the participants played a lot of series against each other. Dogao's numbers look really good but only come from 2 series: his HC 2 matches against Villese (w. 3-1) and Liereyy (l. 2-3).
With that in mind I still think the table captures some of the dynamic of very high level games. It shows the difference between the top 5 and the rest of the field is, indeed, quite measurable, as Viper, Liereyy, MbL and TaToH have the highest overall winrates excluding Lyx (1 tournament) and Dogao (1 tournament as well).
TheMax is the only player with TheViper to have a winrate greater than 50% against the top 5 (only 2 series played).
Lyx definitely shows he belongs in this top 16 with an exceptional performance in KotD 2. Villese's numbers are also quite good.
Vivi shows he is really at the border between the top 5 and the rest of the field. He performs usually well against lower ranked players, but very poorly against the top 5.
Anyway, enjoy the numbers, guys, and remember the set of games played is still very small so you must always take these statistics with a grain of salt.
I hope I'm posting this in the right place. Feel free to move the thread if you don't want to have it here!
Following patao's message comparing DauT and LaaaaaN's performances against the event's participants and the others that are in close range, I decided to take a look at past results over the past 7 months or so, going back to October 2018 (basically around the start of the NAC 2 qualifiers). I recorded all the games won by each MSC participant against the others. Only tournament games were taken into consideration, using Mungo_'s awesome tournament elo website.
Tournaments include: NAC 2 Qualifier 1 & 2, KotD 2, NAC 2, ECL SEA 1v1, HC 2 Qualifiers, DER Arena Cup and HC 2.
Using this data I made a matrix of 1v1 head-to-head between the players:
A few comments from this:
- Due to the format of NAC 2, participants to both that event and MSC have a lot more games between each other. This mostly makes DauT and Nicov statistics look quite bad, as they performed well against the other two players at NAC 2 (F1Re and JorDan_23, who didn't make the cut to MSC) but didn't have great success against the other 4 players. The lopsided series of NAC 2 also tend to inflate some numbers (Viper 5-0 Liereyy and DauT, TaToH 5-0 Nicov).
- MbL and Viper are the only players to share a perfectly neutral head-to-head. They met twice, in the group stages of NAC 2 (MbL won 3-1) and in the semifinals of HC 2 (Viper won 3-1).
- The MbL/TaToH rivalry is, to me, the most interesting match-up at the highest level these days. They have played 16 games between each other (2nd only to Viper & Liereyy 17 games) over the course of three series. TaToH seems to have the edge when it comes to high stakes matches, as he won both their elimination matches (NAC 2 semifinals, ECL SEA 1v1 final). Regardless, these players seem to be very evenly matched and could definitely be in the debate of "who is the 3rd best in the world behind Viper and Liereyy", which makes their dynamic really interesting to follow.
In addition to this, I made a table recording wins and losses per player against "groups" of players: against the top 5, against players ranked 6 to 10 and against players ranked 11 to 16.
The main limit to such an exercise is the very low amount of games that were played.
If you take only Hera's and Nicov's numbers, for example, you would think maybe these two players really didn't perform well in the events that are taken in consideration to make these statistics. However, nobody in their right mind would not include them in a top 16!
Of course, if you go further in the draw in each tournament, you get to play more games, which explains why the top 5 has played more games. NAC 2 is also a great booster as all the participants played a lot of series against each other. Dogao's numbers look really good but only come from 2 series: his HC 2 matches against Villese (w. 3-1) and Liereyy (l. 2-3).
With that in mind I still think the table captures some of the dynamic of very high level games. It shows the difference between the top 5 and the rest of the field is, indeed, quite measurable, as Viper, Liereyy, MbL and TaToH have the highest overall winrates excluding Lyx (1 tournament) and Dogao (1 tournament as well).
TheMax is the only player with TheViper to have a winrate greater than 50% against the top 5 (only 2 series played).
Lyx definitely shows he belongs in this top 16 with an exceptional performance in KotD 2. Villese's numbers are also quite good.
Vivi shows he is really at the border between the top 5 and the rest of the field. He performs usually well against lower ranked players, but very poorly against the top 5.
Anyway, enjoy the numbers, guys, and remember the set of games played is still very small so you must always take these statistics with a grain of salt.
I hope I'm posting this in the right place. Feel free to move the thread if you don't want to have it here!