Instead of all that, you should run a boom in my scenario with trading and then without. Data is what I want, not game commentary.do you know that 125 pop for eco is not enough for a BF 4v4 TG to sustain army and upgrades at the same time? Especially if you do Pala or mangudai + So or spam bbt ? Also 40 carts is maybe enough for mayans and goth but for all other civs you want at least 60 carts. Anyway you seems to be completly ignorant for real games and only open for your unrealisitc szenario. BF is not a boom fest in most of the games. There is no peace treaty for 40 min. As you like real data i link you my last 4 games BF 4v4 WK mod, high rated games not top rating but the players are close to 1900 - 2000 Voobly rating (or more in case of Double and Nicov).
1) https://www.voobly.com/match/view/20281775 Duration: 1 hour 10 min. Trade almost nothing. Reason:
p6 and p2 got destroyed while p1 got destroyed there was no good trade route for either of the team.
Trade profit Team 1: 12000 Trade Profit Team 2: 400. The total gold collected is a lot more though cause we took all ress from enemy team 80.000 vs 45.000, everyone was selling what he could and sending to other mates and not banking to sell. --> The trade helped us without the trade we would not win.
2) https://www.voobly.com/match/view/20282017 Duration: 47 min. Trade: no trade. Reason:
p2 got destroyed we could take the 3v4 advantage and there was no need to make trade cause we won faster.
3) https://www.voobly.com/match/view/20282225 Duration: 30 min. Trade: no trade. Reason:
p2 and p4 got destroyed. Advanatage was too big they resign
4) https://www.voobly.com/match/view/20282738 Duration: 2 hours Trade: a lot. The numbers are gliched. Ashley got 100.000 Trade and nicov got 80.000 feel free to watch for prove. We got like 75.000 gold more than the others by trading. So we were able to buy (mostly ashley cause she got most) like 10.000 stone to spam bombard towers and keeps.
The game contained a Fast imperial from nicov which lead almost to a defeat of p5 but they came back and were fighting a lot. In the end we won cause of the towers which we did in their trade line and their worse markets.
Conclusion: 2 games were decided by amount of total gold. One game by full trade other with small trade. 2 games were won because of an advantage which lead to the situation that there is no trade needed. One of them even before someone reach imp so there was also no major selling.
Out of 4 games there was no game where people attack late. The fighting started always in min 1 for walls. You will not find a lot of games which have higher average rating in BF.
Your scenario is not practical in reality and therefore not valid.
i can send you like 200 other bf games which i dont remember in details that you can watch and make your conclusions why the game was won from team A or B
Games where there isnt a 40 minute treaty, or other untouched boom going on are even more risky and less appealing for trading. My simulation has been assuming a 0% chance your trade gets raided and trashed. Once that number goes above zero, that risk should be added in. If there's even a 10% chance for example that your ally on the far side of the map will get run over inside of your breakeven window, that EV should be added in. For now weve been assuming the risk of ruin is zero, but yeah many games involve that happening.