Starting on September 17th, the long-awaited third instalment of the Arabia-only tournament created and hosted by Memb, King of the Desert comes back with a $50,000 prize pool, including a whopping total prize of $17,000 for the winner – the biggest for a first place finish in a tournament since the 2003 World Cyber Games.
The first two editions of King of the Desert were milestones, making the tournament a household name and indisputably one of the most prestigious events in our professional scene. This year’s edition should be no exception, and, with an expanded prize-pool, twice as many players, and an exciting new format promises to be absolutely stellar.
Star-laden line-up
One of the most exciting things about King of the Desert is its open format, with a much larger draw than all the other events of the year. Doubling in size since its first two editions, the tournament now accommodates for 64 players – from the very best in the world. The 64th seed, komtan, currently ranks 81st on the 1v1 ladder – accounting for the multiple smurfs in the top 100, there really aren’t a lot of players missing out on the event, highlighting the incredibly high-level of the draw.
Courtesy of the increased player-pool, 30 players will make their KotD debut with this third edition, with dogao, the 9th seed, the highest ranked player to have missed on the first two instalments. 9 players return from KotD 2, having missed KotD 1, while 4 veterans, including former semifinalist Hearttt, return from KotD 1 after skipping KotD 2. Finally, 21 players in the line-up have played all editions of KotD.
A total of 26 nations are represented, China leading the way with a total of 8 players. They are followed closely by Brazil (7 players) and Vietnam (6 players), with Argentina and Finland just behind at 5 players each. Italy, the Netherlands, Slovenia, Turkey and Ukraine are participating for the first time to a KotD event.
The end of a “Dynasty”?
One of the 64 players entering the draw, TheViper, enters as the double reigning champion and by far the most decorated player in the history of the game. However, this year’s context is vastly different.
Over the past few months, the top-level scene has become incredibly competitive. The last four major tournaments – Nili’s Apartment Cup 3, Hidden Cup 3, Red Bull Wololo 1 & 2 – have crowned three different winners, with a fourth player finishing runner-up in three of them. While he was challenged in previous editions, TheViper was the overwhelming favorite coming into all of his matches.
This year however, TheViper has lost two major tournaments in a row, which had not happened to him in years (ever?). While these were played on the new Empire Wars game mode, where the meta is fresh and needs to be figured out, the prestige of the line-up and the prize money of these events make it so that these losses cannot be discounted as meaningless. Realistically, however, even accounting those defeats – in the final and the semifinals respectively – Viper’s 2020 season was still stellar and saw him claim two major titles and obliterate the competition in the Deathmatch World Cup.
More than ever, Viper seems vulnerable. While he may still be considered the favorite by many, his margin is smaller than ever, and whether he will rise up to the occasion and defend his title is one of the most enthralling storylines of the tournament.
… or the beginning of a new (H)era?
For the first time since many, many years, TheViper will enter the tournament as the number 2 in the world as ranked by the website aoe-elo. Passing him for the number 1 spot – a feat no one has accomplished in recent years – is the Canadian superstar Hera, who had a stunning 2020. In the four major tournaments of the year, Hera reached three finals – equalling TheViper – and was a semifinalist in the fourth. He also won more minor – but not less relevant – tournaments such as Memb’s KotD3 Express and Mario Ovalle’s Arabia Invitational.
In 2020, Hera has only lost matches to three players: TheViper, Liereyy, and, in the group stage of the eParadise Cup, Villese. On the other hand, he also beat Viper and Villese, and was unbeaten in several matches against Mr Yo and TaToH. His consistency over the year has been exceptional, rewarding him with this #1 spot on the aoe-elo ladder. However, Hera is still chasing this elusive major tournament victory that continues to evade him. He has made no secret of his ambitions, and winning King of the Desert 3 would be the crowning achievement of an already impressive season.
Hera’s task, however, will not be easy, as TheViper is not the only rival he will need to beat to win the tournament. Among the crowd, two other players stand out, completing an exceptional quartet: Mr Yo and Liereyy, who won the two editions of the Red Bull Wololo. For the first time in many years, and perhaps ever, there is no clear favorite among these four, and any of them could very well win the event.
Mr Yo’s KotD debut was bumpy – seeded 2nd of the first edition, he lost to St4rk in the first round in what was the biggest upset of the tournament. His run in the second edition was more on par with his usual standards, with a semifinal finish, only losing to TheViper in a close set. Liereyy, on the other hand, could be the man to beat on the draw. Formerly known for his exceptional micro, the Austrian prodigy has matured into a more complete player – without losing any of incredible skill. Runner-up of the first two KotD, Liereyy finally overcame TheViper in the second RBW before claiming the title in a hard-fought final against Hera. On his favorite map – and a version of it that favors his aggressive playstyle – Liereyy will be hard to beat.
The Usual Suspects
Although they have been overshadowed by the performances of the top 4, players such as TaToH, Nicov, DauT and MbL have been fixtures of the top 10 for months. While they may not be favorite in a match-up against the top 4, make no mistake, all of them have the skills to beat anyone on the draw.
Struggling against the other four, but consistently ahead of the rest of the pack, TaToH seems to be the clear number 5 in the world. While he shines more in tournaments that feature a greater variety of maps, enabling him to design and execute specific – and deadly – strategies, TaToH is still a force to be reckoned with on Arabia. He will, however, most likely have to deal with his nemesis, Hera, early in the tournament. While he beat him in the second round of KotD 2, in 2020, Hera has always prevailed against TaToH.
Nicov comes into King of the Desert 3 after an extremely solid performance in RBW 2, where he not only had to qualify, but then went on to defeat DauT and take TheViper to a deciding 5th game in a hard-fought set that could have gone either way. Nicov is looking as sharp as ever and will be a serious contender for a top 4 finish – or better.
On the other hand, DauT and MbL come into the tournament with question marks over their current form. Neither of them had the best showings in 2020, and both of them losing in the opening round of RBW 2. Arabia, however, is certainly their best map, although the very aggressive version that will be play in the tournament might not suit their preferred style. Both of them got into tricky brackets and will need to rise to the occasion if they want to make the top 8.
Young Guns and Old Legends
It’s a fascinating fact about our game – perks of playing something released twenty years ago – that some of the top players of today were already active in the first years of the scene, while some others were not born when Age of Kings was released. Seasons veterans of the game, well into their thirties, such as Cloud, DauT and Capoch will participate in the tournament alongside youngsters such as the teenagers Rise, Dark and Sora Kuma (also known as Skybear or Herg).
The largest prize pool for the winner of a 1v1 event before King of the Desert 3 was awarded to the winner of the 2002 World Cyber Games ($20,000). A year later, remaining in the “extended family”, a prize pool of the same value was awarded for the winner of the 2003 WCG, played on Age of Mythology. One of the participants to this event – even finishing with a quarterfinal run – will be playing King of the Desert 3 as well. He is none other than the Argentine legend Capoch, who pulled off one of the most impressive comebacks in the history of our game.
Coming back to the game in March after a 15-year hiatus, during which he played other games such as, for instance, StarCraft 2, Capoch has quickly risen to the top 20, learnt all the new civilizations and the new meta. He then managed to qualify for Red Bull Wololo 2 – beating Vivi in an epic reverse sweep set – before upsetting MbL himself in an impressive set, getting a top 8 finish for one of his first tournaments since coming out of retirement. Capoch is hungry for more victories and will be a player to watch in the upcoming event.
Shaping the Meta
Both the first two editions of King of the Desert were milestone tournaments that had a durable impact on how the game is played on the competitive scene. The first King of the Desert, hosted at the end of 2017, was the first tournament to be played on Voobly with the Wololo Kingdoms mode introducing the HD civilizations to the platform. Until then, the scene had been divided between events hosted on Voobly with the Conquerors set (Strike the Balance, Nations Cup) and Escape events on HD, with the new civilizations. The massive success of the tournament definitely popularized WK and cemented it as the new competitive standard for high level tournaments. After King of the Desert, not a single major event was hosted on the AoC balance anymore.
King of the Desert brought novelty in the balance – most participants had limited experience with the expansion civilizations at that point. This led to some questionable decisions and epic sets. In the first round, Chinese pros Whoop, Vivi, Yo and Lyx all drafted Vietnamese, all lost with the civ, and all ended up losing their sets. The latter three would then have a much better showing the next year, all reaching quarterfinals or better in KotD 2.
King of the Desert 2 brought a new version of Arabia, signed by Chrazini, to the table. For the first time in competitive Age of Empires, the players would start with a sheep directly under their Town Center, reducing the incertitude of the early game. This had the side effect of propelling Chinese to being one of the most dominant civilizations on the map. Following on KotD 2’s footsteps, other major tournaments such as NAC 2, HC 2 and the ECL all adopted the “starting sheep” rule on custom map scripts. These new versions of Arabia massively replaced the original standard map in ranked lobbies.
Balance and meta are always interesting topics, and there was a concern before King of the Desert 2 that the tower rush meta, popularized by fan-favorites such as Vivi, would be either too strong or too frequent. While Vivi did indeed reach the semifinals of KotD 2, practically, towers did not prove too successful during the tournament and that strategy saw its “play rate” greatly diminish from the first to the final rounds.
As we are heading into King of the Desert 3, a lot of balance changes have been made to the game. Perhaps more significant even, the new quality of life improvements and the improved performance brought by the Definitive Edition had a major impact on how well the best in the world can play the game. When the meta seems dominated by walls and fast castle, this can largely be due to the original Arabia, easily walled. KotD 3 brings out a new map, also designed by Chrazini, with an increased focus on aggression and open spaces. How will this shape the meta in the tournament? Which civilizations, old or new, will shine? Definitive Edition brought us four new civilizations as well as an ever-changing balance, and I look forward to seeing how all that plays out in the tournament.
The draw in detail
One of the charms of King of the Desert was the unforgiving single-elimination bracket: you lose once, you are out. This led, especially during the first edition, to a lot of entertaining upsets and deep runs in the bracket from players considered as underdogs.
This year, the format is slightly different. The original 64 starters will play two rounds of single elimination – meaning that no one gets a bye or an easy way in. The 16 players emerging from this first phase will be split in four groups of 4, sparring in a GSL-style group stage further narrowing down the playing field to 8 players. These 8 will then fight for the final victory in a classic single elimination draw.
With that in mind, let us review the four groups of players, the first and potential second round matchups, and speculate on who will emerge from the GSL phase and qualify to the top 8.
You can follow along with the brackets available here: [Brackets]
Group A
As all other groups, Group A is laden with superstars. Japanese player komtan, famous for his interventions on AoEZone and his upset of St4rk in Legacy of the Huns 2, gets the dubious honor of facing off against TheViper in the first round (after miguel in KotD and BL4CK in KotD 2). On the other side, fan-favorite Hoang plays against Lyx for a spot in the top 32. While T90’s audience and a lot of fans around the world might root for Hoang and his entertaining style, Lyx should be heavily favorite in this match. Potentially a top 20 player in the world on Arabia, Lyx is an opponent that nobody will want to face, but Viper should unfortunately for him be too big of an obstacle to pass.
Next we have what is, in my opinion, the best first-round match in the draw, opposing two legends, Capoch and Zuppi. With his impressive comeback and current form, Capoch should be the favorite, but Zuppi can beat anyone on a good day, and, in a best of 3, anything can happen. The winner will play against BacT or Vodka and should be favorite against either player.
KotD 1 semifinalist TheMax will take on the newcomer Valas, his quiet countryman who reached 2300 on Voobly but is participating to a tournament for the first time since Nations Cup 2017 (where he was part of Finland B). Max should be favorite and will then square off against either saymyname or RiuT, two other legends of the game whose first-round clash also promises to be exceptional.
In an entirely south american last quarter of the bracket, Hidden Cup 3 semifinalist dogao takes on chess grandmaster Fedex and, should he win, should also be favorite against the winner of the all-Brazilian clash between St4rk and Bruh. St4rk, however, is in good shape, having finished 2nd in the Brazilian Battle of the Four, and is always dangerous on KotD settings.
Predictions:
Group B
Group B is, of course, stacked as well due to the incredible density of the draw but should be more straight forward than Group A. Hera, seeded 4th, takes on Russia’s repard in the first round and could meet PROject_Belgium, if he beats team-game 3k elo Badboy, for a rematch of their KotD 2 clash – the only win Hera got in the event. With his current form, it would be a big upset if Hera did not qualify.
Finnish pro Villese takes on French newcomer Babaorum, also known as bunte_kuh, who is participating to a major tournament for the first time. Villese should be heavily favored in this match. He would then meet the winner of another first-round very anticipated match: JorDan against Daniel. Coming back to the game in late August and full time since the beginning of September, JorDan has reached the top 50 on the ladder, but should struggle against Daniel who has steadily improved over the past few months. However, Daniel’s mental game might be his biggest weakness, and JorDan is too seasoned of a player to “choke” when the stakes are high. This could be a great match!
Further down the bracket, another Gamer Legion player, TaToH, enters the draw as the number 5 seed and faces Bad Koala in the first round. Should he win, he would meet the winner of another clash of veterans, Poland’s Barles or Vietnam’s SongSong aka Kutaxaxoa. TaToH should win this without too many issues.
KotD 2 semifinalist Vivi has not had the best results in tournaments in 2020, failing to qualify for both RBW events. Arabia is, by far, his best map, and the very aggressive version played for KotD 3 should favor his playstyle. His opponent is no pushover: K4SVA has also been playing well recently. Finally, the last opening match of Group B opposes miguel to Running, another newcomer. Running is one of the most improved players from the transition from Voobly to DE, but can he reach the next level and threaten seasoned pros such as miguel? I believe we will see a clash between Vivi and miguel, that promises to be very tricky to predict.
Predictions:
Group C
Opening the top of the Group C is the second seed overall, twice runner-up to King of the Desert, and recent winner of the Red Bull Wololo 2, Liereyy. He faces against classicpro and would then meet the winner of an interesting encounter between Cloud and CL, who recently came back to the scene. Interestingly, Liereyy beat both Cloud and CL in his opening matches of the first KotD, notoriously losing an epic Huns vs Spanish game to CL’s conquistadors. While I believe CL will prevail against Cloud, Liereyy should easily go through.
We then have Vinchester against Sobek, followed by slam vs Jibatong. This part of the bracket is captivating, as any of these four players could qualify depending on their shape on match day. Vinchester currently ranks 6th on the aoe-elo leaderboard – a score perhaps inflated by his performance in the AoELympics – and is technically the favorite. However, Arabia is definitely slam’s best map, and he has had some solid results in 1v1 tournaments this year.
Argentina’s number 1 Nicov faces Italian young gun Rise in the first round and should be the clear favorite. He would meet the winner of Rex vs DracKeN (aka DraCoNT), a match between two KotD newcomers where no player has a clear edge. Regardless, Nicov should go through.
Finally, we have one of the most exciting first-rounds in the draw, with the clash of DauT and Hearttt. Hearttt’s rise to fame mostly came from his team game prowess with team Aftermath, but, in 2017, he had an impressive showing in the first KotD where he beat TaToH and… DauT himself, to reach the semifinals. Hearttt has only come back recently and may not be in “top shape” yet, but the same could be said of DauT, who, since Hidden Cup 3, has been struggling in tournaments. While DauT still should be favorite, this promises to be an exciting match. The winner will play Twigg or Tim, a match that could go either way, but should be favorite against either.
Predictions:
Group D
At the top of the fourth group awaits Mr Yo, winner of RBW 1, takes on Scotty, one of two American players in the draw. The winner will play against either Modri or Sitaux, both newcomers at this stage. On Arabia, Sitaux should have the edge against Modri – an Arena expert – but both will have a very tough time against Mr Yo anyway.
Arguably the second-best player from Asia, ACCM faces Nili in the first round. Nili has taken tournament games from ACCM in the past, but not in such a high-level event. ACCM should win and face either F1Re or chart, who also recently came back. F1Re is always solid in tournaments and will be favored against chart. While these might be close sets, ACCM should have the edge.
We then have MbL facing off against Sora Kuma, teenage prodigy from Taiwan. MbL has not had the best run of form in 2020, but Arabia is his best map, and Random Map is not Empire Wars. He should win comfortably, and be heavily favorite against either Rubenstock or AngelinaJolie, both newcomers in KotD.
Finally, at the very bottom of the draw, LaaaaaN takes on GoKu and StrayDog faces off against Dark. StrayDog revels in forwarding and playing aggressively, which makes him as predictable as he is entertaining to watch. This match will be exciting. LaaaaaN, on the other hand, should comfortably win, and will be favorite in his second round as well.
Predictions:
Looking forward to the 17th.
As Memb would say, “we love this game”.
The first two editions of King of the Desert were milestones, making the tournament a household name and indisputably one of the most prestigious events in our professional scene. This year’s edition should be no exception, and, with an expanded prize-pool, twice as many players, and an exciting new format promises to be absolutely stellar.
Star-laden line-up
One of the most exciting things about King of the Desert is its open format, with a much larger draw than all the other events of the year. Doubling in size since its first two editions, the tournament now accommodates for 64 players – from the very best in the world. The 64th seed, komtan, currently ranks 81st on the 1v1 ladder – accounting for the multiple smurfs in the top 100, there really aren’t a lot of players missing out on the event, highlighting the incredibly high-level of the draw.
Courtesy of the increased player-pool, 30 players will make their KotD debut with this third edition, with dogao, the 9th seed, the highest ranked player to have missed on the first two instalments. 9 players return from KotD 2, having missed KotD 1, while 4 veterans, including former semifinalist Hearttt, return from KotD 1 after skipping KotD 2. Finally, 21 players in the line-up have played all editions of KotD.
A total of 26 nations are represented, China leading the way with a total of 8 players. They are followed closely by Brazil (7 players) and Vietnam (6 players), with Argentina and Finland just behind at 5 players each. Italy, the Netherlands, Slovenia, Turkey and Ukraine are participating for the first time to a KotD event.
The end of a “Dynasty”?
One of the 64 players entering the draw, TheViper, enters as the double reigning champion and by far the most decorated player in the history of the game. However, this year’s context is vastly different.
Over the past few months, the top-level scene has become incredibly competitive. The last four major tournaments – Nili’s Apartment Cup 3, Hidden Cup 3, Red Bull Wololo 1 & 2 – have crowned three different winners, with a fourth player finishing runner-up in three of them. While he was challenged in previous editions, TheViper was the overwhelming favorite coming into all of his matches.
This year however, TheViper has lost two major tournaments in a row, which had not happened to him in years (ever?). While these were played on the new Empire Wars game mode, where the meta is fresh and needs to be figured out, the prestige of the line-up and the prize money of these events make it so that these losses cannot be discounted as meaningless. Realistically, however, even accounting those defeats – in the final and the semifinals respectively – Viper’s 2020 season was still stellar and saw him claim two major titles and obliterate the competition in the Deathmatch World Cup.
More than ever, Viper seems vulnerable. While he may still be considered the favorite by many, his margin is smaller than ever, and whether he will rise up to the occasion and defend his title is one of the most enthralling storylines of the tournament.
… or the beginning of a new (H)era?
For the first time since many, many years, TheViper will enter the tournament as the number 2 in the world as ranked by the website aoe-elo. Passing him for the number 1 spot – a feat no one has accomplished in recent years – is the Canadian superstar Hera, who had a stunning 2020. In the four major tournaments of the year, Hera reached three finals – equalling TheViper – and was a semifinalist in the fourth. He also won more minor – but not less relevant – tournaments such as Memb’s KotD3 Express and Mario Ovalle’s Arabia Invitational.
In 2020, Hera has only lost matches to three players: TheViper, Liereyy, and, in the group stage of the eParadise Cup, Villese. On the other hand, he also beat Viper and Villese, and was unbeaten in several matches against Mr Yo and TaToH. His consistency over the year has been exceptional, rewarding him with this #1 spot on the aoe-elo ladder. However, Hera is still chasing this elusive major tournament victory that continues to evade him. He has made no secret of his ambitions, and winning King of the Desert 3 would be the crowning achievement of an already impressive season.
Hera’s task, however, will not be easy, as TheViper is not the only rival he will need to beat to win the tournament. Among the crowd, two other players stand out, completing an exceptional quartet: Mr Yo and Liereyy, who won the two editions of the Red Bull Wololo. For the first time in many years, and perhaps ever, there is no clear favorite among these four, and any of them could very well win the event.
Mr Yo’s KotD debut was bumpy – seeded 2nd of the first edition, he lost to St4rk in the first round in what was the biggest upset of the tournament. His run in the second edition was more on par with his usual standards, with a semifinal finish, only losing to TheViper in a close set. Liereyy, on the other hand, could be the man to beat on the draw. Formerly known for his exceptional micro, the Austrian prodigy has matured into a more complete player – without losing any of incredible skill. Runner-up of the first two KotD, Liereyy finally overcame TheViper in the second RBW before claiming the title in a hard-fought final against Hera. On his favorite map – and a version of it that favors his aggressive playstyle – Liereyy will be hard to beat.
The Usual Suspects
Although they have been overshadowed by the performances of the top 4, players such as TaToH, Nicov, DauT and MbL have been fixtures of the top 10 for months. While they may not be favorite in a match-up against the top 4, make no mistake, all of them have the skills to beat anyone on the draw.
Struggling against the other four, but consistently ahead of the rest of the pack, TaToH seems to be the clear number 5 in the world. While he shines more in tournaments that feature a greater variety of maps, enabling him to design and execute specific – and deadly – strategies, TaToH is still a force to be reckoned with on Arabia. He will, however, most likely have to deal with his nemesis, Hera, early in the tournament. While he beat him in the second round of KotD 2, in 2020, Hera has always prevailed against TaToH.
Nicov comes into King of the Desert 3 after an extremely solid performance in RBW 2, where he not only had to qualify, but then went on to defeat DauT and take TheViper to a deciding 5th game in a hard-fought set that could have gone either way. Nicov is looking as sharp as ever and will be a serious contender for a top 4 finish – or better.
On the other hand, DauT and MbL come into the tournament with question marks over their current form. Neither of them had the best showings in 2020, and both of them losing in the opening round of RBW 2. Arabia, however, is certainly their best map, although the very aggressive version that will be play in the tournament might not suit their preferred style. Both of them got into tricky brackets and will need to rise to the occasion if they want to make the top 8.
Young Guns and Old Legends
It’s a fascinating fact about our game – perks of playing something released twenty years ago – that some of the top players of today were already active in the first years of the scene, while some others were not born when Age of Kings was released. Seasons veterans of the game, well into their thirties, such as Cloud, DauT and Capoch will participate in the tournament alongside youngsters such as the teenagers Rise, Dark and Sora Kuma (also known as Skybear or Herg).
The largest prize pool for the winner of a 1v1 event before King of the Desert 3 was awarded to the winner of the 2002 World Cyber Games ($20,000). A year later, remaining in the “extended family”, a prize pool of the same value was awarded for the winner of the 2003 WCG, played on Age of Mythology. One of the participants to this event – even finishing with a quarterfinal run – will be playing King of the Desert 3 as well. He is none other than the Argentine legend Capoch, who pulled off one of the most impressive comebacks in the history of our game.
Coming back to the game in March after a 15-year hiatus, during which he played other games such as, for instance, StarCraft 2, Capoch has quickly risen to the top 20, learnt all the new civilizations and the new meta. He then managed to qualify for Red Bull Wololo 2 – beating Vivi in an epic reverse sweep set – before upsetting MbL himself in an impressive set, getting a top 8 finish for one of his first tournaments since coming out of retirement. Capoch is hungry for more victories and will be a player to watch in the upcoming event.
Shaping the Meta
Both the first two editions of King of the Desert were milestone tournaments that had a durable impact on how the game is played on the competitive scene. The first King of the Desert, hosted at the end of 2017, was the first tournament to be played on Voobly with the Wololo Kingdoms mode introducing the HD civilizations to the platform. Until then, the scene had been divided between events hosted on Voobly with the Conquerors set (Strike the Balance, Nations Cup) and Escape events on HD, with the new civilizations. The massive success of the tournament definitely popularized WK and cemented it as the new competitive standard for high level tournaments. After King of the Desert, not a single major event was hosted on the AoC balance anymore.
King of the Desert brought novelty in the balance – most participants had limited experience with the expansion civilizations at that point. This led to some questionable decisions and epic sets. In the first round, Chinese pros Whoop, Vivi, Yo and Lyx all drafted Vietnamese, all lost with the civ, and all ended up losing their sets. The latter three would then have a much better showing the next year, all reaching quarterfinals or better in KotD 2.
King of the Desert 2 brought a new version of Arabia, signed by Chrazini, to the table. For the first time in competitive Age of Empires, the players would start with a sheep directly under their Town Center, reducing the incertitude of the early game. This had the side effect of propelling Chinese to being one of the most dominant civilizations on the map. Following on KotD 2’s footsteps, other major tournaments such as NAC 2, HC 2 and the ECL all adopted the “starting sheep” rule on custom map scripts. These new versions of Arabia massively replaced the original standard map in ranked lobbies.
Balance and meta are always interesting topics, and there was a concern before King of the Desert 2 that the tower rush meta, popularized by fan-favorites such as Vivi, would be either too strong or too frequent. While Vivi did indeed reach the semifinals of KotD 2, practically, towers did not prove too successful during the tournament and that strategy saw its “play rate” greatly diminish from the first to the final rounds.
As we are heading into King of the Desert 3, a lot of balance changes have been made to the game. Perhaps more significant even, the new quality of life improvements and the improved performance brought by the Definitive Edition had a major impact on how well the best in the world can play the game. When the meta seems dominated by walls and fast castle, this can largely be due to the original Arabia, easily walled. KotD 3 brings out a new map, also designed by Chrazini, with an increased focus on aggression and open spaces. How will this shape the meta in the tournament? Which civilizations, old or new, will shine? Definitive Edition brought us four new civilizations as well as an ever-changing balance, and I look forward to seeing how all that plays out in the tournament.
The draw in detail
One of the charms of King of the Desert was the unforgiving single-elimination bracket: you lose once, you are out. This led, especially during the first edition, to a lot of entertaining upsets and deep runs in the bracket from players considered as underdogs.
This year, the format is slightly different. The original 64 starters will play two rounds of single elimination – meaning that no one gets a bye or an easy way in. The 16 players emerging from this first phase will be split in four groups of 4, sparring in a GSL-style group stage further narrowing down the playing field to 8 players. These 8 will then fight for the final victory in a classic single elimination draw.
With that in mind, let us review the four groups of players, the first and potential second round matchups, and speculate on who will emerge from the GSL phase and qualify to the top 8.
You can follow along with the brackets available here: [Brackets]
Group A
As all other groups, Group A is laden with superstars. Japanese player komtan, famous for his interventions on AoEZone and his upset of St4rk in Legacy of the Huns 2, gets the dubious honor of facing off against TheViper in the first round (after miguel in KotD and BL4CK in KotD 2). On the other side, fan-favorite Hoang plays against Lyx for a spot in the top 32. While T90’s audience and a lot of fans around the world might root for Hoang and his entertaining style, Lyx should be heavily favorite in this match. Potentially a top 20 player in the world on Arabia, Lyx is an opponent that nobody will want to face, but Viper should unfortunately for him be too big of an obstacle to pass.
Next we have what is, in my opinion, the best first-round match in the draw, opposing two legends, Capoch and Zuppi. With his impressive comeback and current form, Capoch should be the favorite, but Zuppi can beat anyone on a good day, and, in a best of 3, anything can happen. The winner will play against BacT or Vodka and should be favorite against either player.
KotD 1 semifinalist TheMax will take on the newcomer Valas, his quiet countryman who reached 2300 on Voobly but is participating to a tournament for the first time since Nations Cup 2017 (where he was part of Finland B). Max should be favorite and will then square off against either saymyname or RiuT, two other legends of the game whose first-round clash also promises to be exceptional.
In an entirely south american last quarter of the bracket, Hidden Cup 3 semifinalist dogao takes on chess grandmaster Fedex and, should he win, should also be favorite against the winner of the all-Brazilian clash between St4rk and Bruh. St4rk, however, is in good shape, having finished 2nd in the Brazilian Battle of the Four, and is always dangerous on KotD settings.
Predictions:
- 1. TheViper
- 2. dogao
- 3. Capoch
- 4. TheMax
Group B
Group B is, of course, stacked as well due to the incredible density of the draw but should be more straight forward than Group A. Hera, seeded 4th, takes on Russia’s repard in the first round and could meet PROject_Belgium, if he beats team-game 3k elo Badboy, for a rematch of their KotD 2 clash – the only win Hera got in the event. With his current form, it would be a big upset if Hera did not qualify.
Finnish pro Villese takes on French newcomer Babaorum, also known as bunte_kuh, who is participating to a major tournament for the first time. Villese should be heavily favored in this match. He would then meet the winner of another first-round very anticipated match: JorDan against Daniel. Coming back to the game in late August and full time since the beginning of September, JorDan has reached the top 50 on the ladder, but should struggle against Daniel who has steadily improved over the past few months. However, Daniel’s mental game might be his biggest weakness, and JorDan is too seasoned of a player to “choke” when the stakes are high. This could be a great match!
Further down the bracket, another Gamer Legion player, TaToH, enters the draw as the number 5 seed and faces Bad Koala in the first round. Should he win, he would meet the winner of another clash of veterans, Poland’s Barles or Vietnam’s SongSong aka Kutaxaxoa. TaToH should win this without too many issues.
KotD 2 semifinalist Vivi has not had the best results in tournaments in 2020, failing to qualify for both RBW events. Arabia is, by far, his best map, and the very aggressive version played for KotD 3 should favor his playstyle. His opponent is no pushover: K4SVA has also been playing well recently. Finally, the last opening match of Group B opposes miguel to Running, another newcomer. Running is one of the most improved players from the transition from Voobly to DE, but can he reach the next level and threaten seasoned pros such as miguel? I believe we will see a clash between Vivi and miguel, that promises to be very tricky to predict.
Predictions:
- 1. Hera
- 2. TaToH
- 3. Villese
- 4. miguel
Group C
Opening the top of the Group C is the second seed overall, twice runner-up to King of the Desert, and recent winner of the Red Bull Wololo 2, Liereyy. He faces against classicpro and would then meet the winner of an interesting encounter between Cloud and CL, who recently came back to the scene. Interestingly, Liereyy beat both Cloud and CL in his opening matches of the first KotD, notoriously losing an epic Huns vs Spanish game to CL’s conquistadors. While I believe CL will prevail against Cloud, Liereyy should easily go through.
We then have Vinchester against Sobek, followed by slam vs Jibatong. This part of the bracket is captivating, as any of these four players could qualify depending on their shape on match day. Vinchester currently ranks 6th on the aoe-elo leaderboard – a score perhaps inflated by his performance in the AoELympics – and is technically the favorite. However, Arabia is definitely slam’s best map, and he has had some solid results in 1v1 tournaments this year.
Argentina’s number 1 Nicov faces Italian young gun Rise in the first round and should be the clear favorite. He would meet the winner of Rex vs DracKeN (aka DraCoNT), a match between two KotD newcomers where no player has a clear edge. Regardless, Nicov should go through.
Finally, we have one of the most exciting first-rounds in the draw, with the clash of DauT and Hearttt. Hearttt’s rise to fame mostly came from his team game prowess with team Aftermath, but, in 2017, he had an impressive showing in the first KotD where he beat TaToH and… DauT himself, to reach the semifinals. Hearttt has only come back recently and may not be in “top shape” yet, but the same could be said of DauT, who, since Hidden Cup 3, has been struggling in tournaments. While DauT still should be favorite, this promises to be an exciting match. The winner will play Twigg or Tim, a match that could go either way, but should be favorite against either.
Predictions:
- 1. Liereyy
- 2. Nicov
- 3. DauT
- 4. slam
Group D
At the top of the fourth group awaits Mr Yo, winner of RBW 1, takes on Scotty, one of two American players in the draw. The winner will play against either Modri or Sitaux, both newcomers at this stage. On Arabia, Sitaux should have the edge against Modri – an Arena expert – but both will have a very tough time against Mr Yo anyway.
Arguably the second-best player from Asia, ACCM faces Nili in the first round. Nili has taken tournament games from ACCM in the past, but not in such a high-level event. ACCM should win and face either F1Re or chart, who also recently came back. F1Re is always solid in tournaments and will be favored against chart. While these might be close sets, ACCM should have the edge.
We then have MbL facing off against Sora Kuma, teenage prodigy from Taiwan. MbL has not had the best run of form in 2020, but Arabia is his best map, and Random Map is not Empire Wars. He should win comfortably, and be heavily favorite against either Rubenstock or AngelinaJolie, both newcomers in KotD.
Finally, at the very bottom of the draw, LaaaaaN takes on GoKu and StrayDog faces off against Dark. StrayDog revels in forwarding and playing aggressively, which makes him as predictable as he is entertaining to watch. This match will be exciting. LaaaaaN, on the other hand, should comfortably win, and will be favorite in his second round as well.
Predictions:
- 1. Mr Yo
- 2. ACCM
- 3. MbL
- 4. LaaaaaN
Looking forward to the 17th.
As Memb would say, “we love this game”.