I can respect the opinion, but I really don't see Yo doing that Arabia Mayans game, ever. To me that's the hard tell reallyGajah = Yo
Im gonna go against the flow, the difference between Yo and ACCM is that ACCM goes behind 5000 points and ultimately resigns, but Yo can go behind 10,000 points and come back from the hell!!!
And there are many Yo castles, clinically placed in your face castles.
In NAC5, Yo vs FreakingAndy game 2, Yo went full plumes + halbs against Malians.I can respect the opinion, but I really don't see Yo doing that Arabia Mayans game, ever. To me that's the hard tell really
This is fine-cooked cuisine here, bravo.Ok ok, I promised a 20 page analysis, it's only 6 pages, sorry, but here it is.
If this is not a well cooked scottish Haggis, I don't know what is. wow, you guys are nuts.I'll just post my text wall here instead of the Twitter post.
Does Jordan pick Sicilians..?!!Thank you all for this incredible thread. I would have liked to contribute myself but only now have had the time to get caught up.
In the end I am slightly more confident that Barles is Sumanguru and JorDan is Pachacuti, as DaisyChain has made strong arguments for. I think both of them can do that palisade thing with the boar lure on evac but perhaps it is more likely from Barles since he would have seen Ganji (Robert also did it in his set) do it in practice and thus the idea would be recent in his mind? I dunno, man. Even now after having submitted my picks my mind is flip-flopping.
Edit: also wanted to point out that another reason for Jadwiga=Heartt is the boar lure with the scout on evac, also done by Hera and Lierrey
Eh, I would say the Viper 4-0 sweep in the finals of HC3 was quite untouchable as well 11Hera is just another level.
Even Viper in his prime seemed more shaky in the finals. Hera seems untouchable.
I just hope Hera apologies for winning 4-0, like Viper did in HC3. Will be hilarious. Then T90 and Hera can have a little chat about Hera's HC critique vid!Eh, I would say the Viper 4-0 sweep in the finals of HC3 was quite untouchable as well 11
But yes, the current level of dominance of Hera is on par with what Viper was achieving in that 2017-early 2020 period.
Spot on predictions, this is what I had too (wish I submitted my guess but the sfream started at 2am in Australia)I'll just post my text wall here instead of the Twitter post.
Hidden Cup V is about to come to a close and I think it’s safe to say we are well and truly cooked. It’s been more difficult than ever. Hidden Cup II was the first big AoE tournament I ever watched and every edition since there has been major cooking (TheMax and Dogao come to mind) and there has been many more this time around.
In the last couple of years since the last Hidden Cup we have run our own Hidden Cup for UK players. Now, I’m not going to say I am no expert at guessing players, but it was a very fruitful training ground to work out how to guess players and find some processes that work in this format.
Some of my favourite things to work out who is who:
Ok here are the first three players I found the most obvious to place, almost based on gameplay/draft and vibe alone. This is the smartest way to start and makes your job far easier if you can nail some players down and work on the question marks.
- Start with the most obvious candidates for who. If you can start with try multiple “it’s definitely them” then you have less work to do at the end. Probably.
- As much as you can think “I can see X doing this” also “I can’t see X doing this” is also a very valid way to narrow down players for who is who.
- Trust in the drafts. What civs to players like to do and especially what are their maps of strength. Don’t forget the training partner theory. This has typically been something that’s happened in previous editions with training partners picking similart things in drafts coughs Koreans = GL.
- Gameplay. People’s gameplay doesn’t magically change for HC. The proof is in the pudding. If someone has amazing control grouped monks, it can only be so many people. Although, I am perfectly aware that I will contradict myself here. Sometimes though, you you have to take an educated guess and a gamble.
- Trust the details. The farms. The boar lures. The mining camps.
The Humbled
Vasco de Gama - Hera
Hera, in my opinion, should be one of the most clear players to guess based on pure gameplay. He is the best player in the world. If anyone is dominating then there is a good chance it’s him. There were quite a few instances when I thought ‘ok this has to be Hera.’ These are the kind of moments when you think that no one else would do something like this.
- The Ethiopians pick on Slopes is odd. When that happens I think I automatically consider this to be something that only Hera or Liereyy would do. Dave put it well, Hera might have had some success in training games with the civ and now thinks it’s good, but the thing is with Hera, he can pick a lot of civs and make them look good. That’s how good he is.
- Turks fast imp. We’ve all seen the build order from Hera right? He definitely likes this strat and he’s no stranger to fast imp/low eco plays on ‘closed’ maps.
- Burmese. C’mon bruh. Not just once, but multiple times. Who else? Love Burmese though.
- The most important part, up until the Gajah set I would have said he looks unstoppable. The fashion of the RO16 and quarter finals were rather emphatic. Major Hera vibes, especially the boomy/defensive style.
King Stephen - DauT
DauT has historically been one of the easier plays to spot due to his castles, but there’s also some other things to look out for.
- DauT loves Goths these days. In fact, if you go on to Liquipedia and see who has played Goths the most recently in tournaments, most of them are DauT. This would lead you to believe it’s probably going to be a civ that he definitely wants in a draft so it’s likely to be a civ they are going to pick higher and not simply picking up Goths at the end to try something out.
- I spectated recent DauT games. He had auto re-seed turned on. So did King Stephen vs Selim the Grim.
- No loom in the bypass game vs Khosrau. C’mon. This series in general gave me major flashback vibes to NAC of Viper vs DauT.
- The quarter final draft is so cooked. DauT picking Aztecs second to play them on Islands is another level of cooking. It’s honestly impressive.
Jean Bureau - Mihai
If Jean Bureau is not Mihai. This has been the greatest bait of all time.
- The most clear Mihai trait that has occurred and no one else did? The palisade trick on cross to stop players from docking. T90 made a prediction that one other player would do it. It never happened. Surely, it has to be Mihai confirmed?
- Sticking with the Cross, which has been a favourite map for the Fox boys, but also playing Huns here smells oh very Fox.
Otto the Great - MbL
I’m not sure that we really need to analysis things here. The great thing about spotting MbL is that the games are always interesting. In terms of adaptability he is such an interesting player to watch and in my opinion, the best games to watch this tournament. If I was going to highlight two things though:
- The Spanish game on Cup. Really trying to win villagers and get to towers is such an MbL thing to try.
- MbL seemed awfully happy on Twitter when he asked if people would be tuning in to watch this week. If MbL was out first round, would he have done that?
The next batch of players have taken much more work to try and work out, this is where it’s important to stay humble and pay attention to the details. Especially the farms. Typically, once you’re able to place one player into a spot, the domino’s begin to fall.
The Humble’es
Sitaux - Jan Zhiska
This is actually one of those that I was fairly confident about.
- Jan did a Malay fish boom strat. I know this is common, but this was 100% planned in my opinion. Sitaux in the lesser watched Middle East tournament did a Malay fish boom vs DauT winning 3-1. He never made it to NAC so never got to show this strategy on African Reed Beds and I believe he’s been saving this in his back pocket ever since.
- Islands and Cross. Main maps of Sitaux. Also played Koreans in qualifiers vs Lyx (and won) and re-played it in the main event.
- I think the GG theory has good weight. People don’t overthink the ‘gg moment’ it’s more muscle memory. Sitaux capitalises his often and so did Jan throughout the main event.
Vinchester - Selim the Grim
The farms don’t lie, baby. Well. They can, but not when they are this unique.
- Vinch has unique farms starting on the top side of the TC. Selim also does this. It’s very rare. It’s a massive indicator that Vinch = Selim.
TheViper - Khosrau
Should be a fairly easy one to spot, but it took me a few games before I had the major light bulb moment.
- RO16 in the final game vs Sigismund on Arabia with Malians. I already started to consider Viper but the late game expansion with such typical Viper castles was so clearly him in my opinion. Also going guard tower, for one tower.
- After the RO16, I feel like the confirmation got even stronger in terms of gameplay vs Stephen and finally vs Alexios in the semi-finals. Khosrau played many, many games extremely greedy.
- Prioritising Heavy Plow an absolutely excessive amount of times. Clear Viper strategy.
- Had some very clear Viper civs mixed into the drafts, Bengalis, Japanese, Malay.
Liereyy - Alexios
Big question mark for Liereyy coming into Hidden Cup after NAC. How hungry would he be to rectify the previous performance and prove the doubters wrong? I wasn’t sure, but mainly because it’s hard to know where Liereyy’s level is at and if he is playing a lot. The guy is mostly a ghost and I love that mystery about him.
- Arguably had the best micro in the tournament. Looks very on point. Whenever you think of the best micro, it’s hard to go beyond Liereyy.
- Loved playing with X-bows and mangos. As mentioned the micro was just extremely good. Having pathing fixed, certainly means that Liereyy can play to his full potential.
- Training partner theory time. Alexios used the same Saracens strat on Cup as Jadwiga…
Hearttt - Jadwiga
We have another that was heavily influenced with Farm Theory to help confirm who Jadwiga is. I am fairly confident that we have them nailed down.
- As mentioned, the Cup strategy used by Alexios means likely training partners. It would be likely for Liereyy and Hearttt to train 100%.
- Playing Vietnamese on Arabia is so very Hearttt.
- Jadwiga/Hearttt are very consistent with their first farming spot. Since the gameplay matches up it only increases the chances that they are in fact the same being.
- The series in general gave very Hearttt vs MbL vibes, it was very back and forth and a 4-3 is what I would expect from these guys.
Sebastian - Alfred the Alpaca
This one I am nervous about. I do think there are chances we could have egg on our face. Seb went undefeated in qualifiers, but everyone has been very happy to put him as Alfred.
- The gameplay tracked for Seb, but also looked a little nervous at times, perhaps someone’s first time at a big major tournament?
- Again, with the Huns on Cross. This feels very Fox and something with the training partner theory I just cannot get past.
- There was some debate that Alfred vs Jan were also training partners, going for the same strats and working this out in the series. Fox players vs Sitaux seems like it could be likely, but Margougou said he wasn’t sure. He’s always truthful, right?
The next batch is where we have to cook and rely on some information that we’ve been given and believe that these things are massive indicators of who is who. This section may shock you.
The Humblers
TaToH - Gregory VII
Now I am quite aware I am probably losing some of you guys right now. Let me explain.
- TaToH tweeted during the opening rounds. It appears that he was sick and not doing so great after a few bad days. Playing a two hour game then looking exhausted afterwards certainly was an odd performance and someone that looked not at 100% health.
- Gregory typed ‘gg wp, gl next.’ Emphasis on the comma. The comma is going to be so important here.
- The draft is extremely GL. Koreans and it seems like TaToH has listened to DauT about the Goths on Evacuation. TaToH and DauT are good friends, I think it’s very likely they shared notes on this one.
- He was also eliminated in the first round last time. I know there has been a huge improvement since then, but please for the love of god don’t tell me this cannot happen.
ACCM - Gajah Mada
I truly believe Nicov was cooking on this one guys. He said he has seen this kind of gameplay far too much to be mistaken here. He said ONE HUNDRED PERCENT, ACCM. I love the ****ing balls on this guys. Margougou is going to owe this this guy dinner and a few drinks.
- At first I thought this was TaToH. The strategy is similar, plus winning makes you instantly think TaToH. That’s fair. They are also the kind of strats you can see from ACCM. The Cumans tower rush? I was scraping through ACCM vod the other day and the first RF game I watched was him Cuman tower rushing on flank.
- The gg on Mudflow. It’s been the most ACCM gg of the full tournament in my opinion. It was a bit late to say the least.
- The town bell. ACCM literally has an emote on his channel dedicated to this. I don’t think this has happened to anyone else this tournament.
- ACCM’s accuracy on their first farm is insane. Gajah is the same. TaToH farms do not track with Gajah, so I am very convinced that Gajah is ACCM with farm theory having a major influence. Thanks to Degaussed for checking TaToH farms.
- Importantly, ‘gg wp gl next.’ When this came on the screen, I’m not going to lie, I kind of **** myself. It was pretty much the same message as Greg, but no comma. Could TaToH just have forgotten or changed his typing habits? It’s unlikely surely? Well, it turns out that ACCM has previously said ‘gg wp gl next’ like this before without the comma. Crisis averted. Thanks to Muumi for the amazing research.
Mr Yo - Emperor Sigismund
This one is painful to write. Perhaps my favourite pro player to watch. A first round exit I am afraid for China’s best player.
- I think the most important thing is the draft, Romans, Celts and Bohemians. Any one of these civs I really attribute to Yo, but all three together? Sheesh. Especially Romans, Yo has played them in major events before and won with them, meaning he is more likely to pay them again.
- Going Elite Woad Raider and Heavy Scorpion is just god tier unit choice, I got only ACCM or Yo vibes during this game on Evacuation.
- The Chinese community seem pretty set on this being Yo and I believe even Lyx commented that the deer pushing was very Yo-like. Always rely on local knowledge.
- The guy is called Emperor Sigismund. Siggy for short. Yo loves to smoke cigarettes. Emperor Ciggy. It’s obvious now.
- Out first round? Well 4-1 vs Viper doesn’t seem too unlikely to be honest. Yo also has somewhat of a reputation of starting slow in big events and with brand new maps, this is quite high risk.
- My one issue is the farms. Yo farms and Siggy starting farms do not match. Small sample size though. Don’t let it cloud the judgement.
The (Unexpected) Humbling Trio
Every good story has to have a love triangle. Well, not exactly a love triangle of sorts, but I did not expect to go into Hidden Cup with a degree of confusion with these three. To be specific, with JorDan. With Ganji and Barles I think that was to be expected, but new part time JorDan is a bit of a wild card.
Ganji - Robert Guiscard
I was looking for the amazing monk micro. I think we never really saw it. I could be wrong.
- Let’s talk about the second best theory of all Hidden Cup. ‘lagspike’ Theory. In about 800,000 the exact phrasing ‘lagspike’ has been said 3 times. Once by Salted Pepper (who played excellent vs Sitaux in qualifiers) and twice by Ganji. It’s super rare and we have a match. This is like getting a DNA hit if you’re a detective. Thanks to happyleaves for finding this out.
- The Swedish community seems pretty set; this is Ganji. I was told this and I verified with a member of their community.
- During Evacuation, he does the long bure lures and uses the palisade trick. Definitely seen of someone that plays RF.
- The farms. Quite unique. Starting on the left hand side often. Robert did this in his set too. It’s quite rare and I am willing to put quite a bit of weight behind this.
Barles - Pachacuti
I cannot believe JorDan and Barles are the two I have struggled with the most to place. It’s the only two I am nervous about. I’m not going to lie, I have gambled here, but it’s the best educated guess I can make.
- I checked a few games of Barles, I noticed him going with an extra house in Dark Age regularly, Pacha does this in a few games too.
- Barles is known as a strategist. I really don’t see JorDan playing Sicilians on Evacuation. I can see Barles cooking something up though.
- Bypass and Hidden Forts are two more closed maps. Maps I would expect Barles to pick.
- Barles in recent years regularly takes a game from Hera. 4-1 result. I history repeating itself?
- Also, dave_hun assures me that this is Barles.
JorDan - Sumanguru
couple of hours is wishful thinking! I think that was 45 minutes all up hahahaIf something makes me doubt it's the "Barles houses" really. We should know in a couple of hours.