Discussion - NAC2 Play-Offs SF MbL vs TaToH

[nimanoe]

Will be played on Saturday 16 February at 11:00 GMT on Twitch.tv/Nili_AoE
Who do you think will win this match-up?

Spoiler: Map Settings:

Best of 5 on the following maps:
Game 1: Arabia
Game 2: Map pick MbL
Game 3: Map pick TaToH
Map ban MbL
Map ban TaToH
Game 4: Map pick MbL
Game 5: Map pick TaToH
Game 6: Map pick TaToH
Game 7: Map pick MbL
Game 8: Map pick MbL
Game 9: Map pick TaToH

Spoiler: Civ Settings:

Players will be able to globally pick 10 civs and then ban 1 civ of the picked civs from the opponent
Draft

Spoiler: Final Score

MbL 0-0 TaToH

Brackets

 

[AkeNo]

go tati

 

[jive36]

I wonder if Tatoh takes Vikings early if Graveyards is one of the early maps. MBL is an excellent Vikings player and has shown in NAC2 he likes them on Graveyards in particular. Which is why I think Tatoh tries to deny MBL the opportunity to go Vikings. That or he has a special "Tatitoh" strategy to prevent the Vikings boom.

 

[kalkkaro]

Tatoh is better water player and his clear victory from Arabia specialist Nicov, taking even all the full land maps, makes me going against popular opinion. 5-4 win for Tatitoh.

 

[ramzes2000]

the game huns (tatoh) vs vik (mbl) feudal age, mbl got wood with one tower. Tatoh got 5 scs and 8 skirms and 1 vill fwd, mbl zero army. Tattoh is making a tower but in that time he is sending out his scs while mbl went build tower with 5 vills (tattoh could stop it with his army if he could scan it) after that mbl built that tower killed tattoh vill stopped his 2 towers near his last wood. That showed me mbl;s mind level. He is much higher than tattoh atm. Mbl made very big progress and in my opinion he can win NAC2 with good day.
ofc. Tattoh lost this game

BTW. top 5 atm are viper,lierey, mbl, vivi and yo.

 

[AkeNo]

expected result! <3

 

[_Andrew]

Let's be honest.. a Viper-Tatoh final is about the worst possible outcome for interest/hype.

 

[Funito]

Tatoh is smart and better out of ara context. Most were sure about MbL winning because most recent games were arabia kind. Tatoh is strong against aggressive players but he gets neutralized by smart ones with better skill (well, thats basically, Viper)

 

[mungo__]

Let's be honest.. a Viper-Tatoh final is about the worst possible outcome for interest/hype.

Well at least it is uncommon... But MBL - Viper would have been really interesting, a rematch of hidden cup

 

[ramzes2000]

1111, what happened to mbl. So bad day for him and very good for tattoh i guess. It means like viper is going to win it easy. The final should be lierey vs viper. Those games are always very interesting. And i must say viper played today such a great, his micro was incredible. It was looks like he had so much fun while playing the game without any stress - probably the 2 first games switched him to this position.

 

[Lazybitch]

Let's be honest.. a Viper-Tatoh final is about the worst possible outcome for interest/hype.

I have seen comments of this guy in other forums, and I have to say that his negativity and lack of respect for the player are very upsetting.

 

[_Andrew]

I have seen comments of this guy in other forums, and I have to say that his negativity and lack of respect for the player are very upsetting.

If that’s the way you’re taking it, you’re misunderstanding/misinterpreting what I’m saying.

 

[dooog]

Entertaining series to watch. Tatoh played amazing congrats to him. Feel bad for Mbl he didn't play his best in the last couple of games. I actually thought he had a shot at beating Indians on rehydration at one point which is pretty impressive, Indians are just stupid on that map.

I have seen comments of this guy in other forums, and I have to say that his negativity and lack of respect for the player are very upsetting.

He's a beaming ray of positivity and sunshine

 

[ChriSt]

I have seen comments of this guy in other forums, and I have to say that his negativity and lack of respect for the player are very upsetting.

Well he is right and you are not. Get off your high horse. Its very clear he is making a reference to match ups and not individual specific skills. Tatoh is a great player but playing vs Viper is probably not his best match up playstyle wise.

 

[dnzdalgic]

Actually im hyped to see Tatoh in final. Pretty sure he will prepare good draft and good strategies

 

[Laaaaab]

From the moment they did the pre-match interview I can feel that MbL wasn't quite there as he did in the group stage, on the other hand TaToH looks super focused and confident. Actually Viper vs TaToH wasn't that bad, they had their shared histories, and on these map settings I think anything could happen.
But I'll keep the MbL - Viper fanfic in my closet, this tourney just gives it too much potential...

 

[bartman.]

MbL really needs to find a way to be more confident in the crucial stages of big tournaments. When he lost that 3-1 lead yesterday, you could almost see him lose his confidence which seems to be his main issue generally. Funny enough, at the same time that might be why he does quite well against Viper because he doesn't feel like he has any chance anyways and therefore doesn't feel any pressure. Would have loved to see him go through to the final, he's a hell of a player and should feel that way himself.

 

[Syphax]

Why do people keep saying that MbL does "well" against Viper?

He won in two completely irrelevant group stage matches (NAC1 und 2) and a very low money tournament (LotH), in which many people even criticised Viper afterwards for trolling. Conversely, Viper beat him convincingly 4-2 in the Hidden Cup finals and Viper has always beaten Liereyy (KotD1, 2 NAC1, 2), who has in many matches dominated MbL.

Liereyy has performed much better vs. Viper than MbL: Liereyy faced off against him in important tournament matches (semis/finals), in which Viper was mostly 100% serious and still managed to win games.

Comparing group stage matchups without tryhard-mode and semis/finals that matter is almost like taking random rated games into account. You have to consider the context in which matches are played and their importance. Otherwise you could claim that Vivi is almost as good as Viper or his closest contender, just because he beats him "fairly often" in rated games (in which Viper e.g. Persian drushes for 40 minutes).

 

[bartman.]

I personally said "he does quite well" and i don't see how that is wrong. I'm not saying he's doing better against Viper than Liereyy or anything, but recently MbL has played well against Viper. Yes, Viper might not have given his best in some of the matchups. Still, Vipers performance in these matches would have probably been enough to beat almost any other player in the world. And i did not see Viper troll in the group stage now, even though he clearly wasn't at 100%. You could also ask why he wasn't at 100% and if that could have had something to do with MbL as well. So yes, i think MbL has been "doing quite well" against Viper recently. That does not mean he's better than him or closer to him than Liereyy or anything you might interpret. It just means: He's been doing quite well.

 

[nimanoe]

Liereyy has performed much better vs. Viper than MbL: Liereyy faced off against him in important tournament matches (semis/finals), in which Viper was mostly 100% serious and still managed to win games.

How is losing 5-4 in KotD1, 5-2 in NAC1, 5-3 in KotD2 and 5-0 in NAC2 much better than losing 4-2 in Hidden Cup?
MbL and viper haven't played much in playoff stages of big tournaments where everything was on the line, but in group stages his results have been quite promising, that's why people would like to see MbL face Viper

 

[pumukel]

In order to thicken this argument, one should also consider the two matches in which Liereyy beat TheViper.

Escape Gaming Masters 2 - Losers Bracket Second Ro4: Liereyy 1-0 TheViper -> We all know TheViper is much more likely to lose a game than a series.

Strike the Balance - Group Stage: Liereyy 3-2 TheViper -> Looks a lot like these matches without everything on the line that MbL took from TheViper.

 

[Syphax]

Liereyy has performed better against Viper because he faced him more often and has taken more games from him when it counted (knockout rounds in important tournaments).

What is much more important is the way Viper played against MbL in the aforementioned groupstages compared to how he played in the knockout rounds against Lierrey:

It's not that he only played "worse" as in making a few mistakes more or MbL playing much better than Liereyy. It's that Viper from the general style played much differently (more "try hard" in knockout rounds): e.g. in KotD2 Viper walled basically every game, played super safe and his general gameplan was mostly flawless. Conversely, against MbL in NAC2 he e.g. didn't wall at all for no reason (game1) or didn't push at all when he easily could have (Conqs on coastal mountain - why camp the docks with them when Viper already had water supremacy and not just push or raid?).

Now obviously it could just be a "mental problem" or "MbL has figured Viper out" or whatever. But when you consider the other circumstances (games didn't really matter/Viper is known to not play 100% at times, e.g. show matches/Viper otherwise played almost flawlessly against others/ etc.) it just seems much more likely that Viper didn't go full try hard.

Also note that Viper said he "played his heart out" against Liereyy in the group stage and that Nicov told MbL about Viper, "he played serious against me".

 

[buhanisson]

Mbl actually won those games. When seeding is used, Liereyy tends to face TheViper in the latest stages of tournaments when most is at stake. But that doesnt mean he deserves any additional participation award points when he loses.

Theres no way of knowing how many games mbl could have taken in those same finals. The finals is the last chance to perform in that particular tournament, and the challengers too are probably much more motivated.

 

[nimanoe]

I'm not comparing mbls group stage matches to liereyys playoffs matches, I'm comparing mbls playoffs matches to liereyys playoff matches. MbL only played viper once (hidden cup) and took 2 games of viper, while losing 4. Liereyy played viper 4 times and took 9 games and lost 20 games. The percentage of wins is really similar, it's just that MbL has only played viper once in the playoffs.

 

[Syphax]

My point is: there is no real reason to assume that MbL is a better match for Viper than Liereyy is. Instead, there are many indicators for the opposite.

- The group stage matches are mostly meaningless and don't allow for any serious judgment on knock out performances, especially when it comes to Viper who has been known to not care as much when it doesn't matter

- The (tournament) performances of MbL and Liereyy overall (Lierey being 2nd in KotD1, 2 and NAC1) and vs. each other point more towards Liereyy being the better player and thus the better challenger for Viper.

Obviously we "don't know for sure", I just don't understand why people use a few group series as an indication for anything. That is like saying Vivi is #2 because he beats him in rated games regularly (despite the fact that in most tournament knock out rounds Vivi is eliminated by a great many players quickly, let alone by Viper).