What do you mean by rule? In AOC which civ did rule Arabia? Hun, Aztecs or Mayans? Hun where most used in rated games while in tourneys people almost only used Aztecs.
Aside from that Maya looks good, but I still think Huns will be popular (maybe even popular than before).
I think Japanese is going to be very good in 1vs1, it's the civ that can use Hunting Dogs the best and slower walls -> better MAA. Getting Bloodlines makes their feudal age great (because MAA isn't very good), and gives them another good castle age unit in Knights. We'll see if it's the top civ or if another civ beats it.
My best guess is that the Huns will still dominate. Maybe not 75% of the time; rather, more like 25% of the time, after the nerfs. My reason is that people were so used to playing the Huns before, that they probably got the build order memorized at the back of their hands. Also, no-house bonus is still a significant bonus, whether they have stone walls or not. We may also see more knights and fewer cavalry archers.
Mongols and Mayans would probably be just as popular, due to their excellent dark and feudal age, the Mayan's resource bonus, and the Mongol's scout bonus.
Chinese would skyrocket in use due to the new TC LoS bonus. They might be used as much as Mongols, or maybe more.
Aztecs, I'm not too sure. Maybe the same as before. Their drush has been slightly weakened due to the loom requirement, but they also have the potential to field 8 militia, which is risky, but on the hands of a good player, it can rip the opponent to shreds.
Another new civ that will probably end up being top tier on Arabia is the Incas. Faster feudal due to extra starting turkey, 10 pop/house bonus which makes them a mini-Hun, and most importantly, stronger villagers and cheaper towers making the opponent's flushing attempts more difficult.
With regards to the other civs:
Celts, Britons, Byzantines, and Goths was middle of the pack before, and now they may be slightly used more due to hunting dogs.
Japanese is going to rock! Now players are going to go mill first, hunting dogs, and then fast forward to feudal. The fact that they now get bloodlines means their castle age is going to be really good. Probably middle tier, due to the fact that the collection site bonus shines early on, but isn't as strong later on in feudal.
Magyars would also be middle-tier. Free foraging and 10% cheaper scouts help, but they have no economic bonuses, and no dark age bonus to help you get to feudal age faster (1-kill wolf bonus doesn't help with boars).
Slavs would probably also be middle tier. Faster farming means you can skyrocket to castle age, and free tracking is good for MAA rushes. 5 pop/military building is sweet, but they ain't getting to feudal age faster, since hardly anybody build farms in dark age.
Franks, although now they have the foraging bonus, might still be low tier on arabia maps. Boar and sheep are still faster ways of gathering food, and they can reach a faster castle, but not a faster feudal, the latter of which is more important. They are absolute MONSTERS as pocket players though, but what are the chances that you'll be pocket on Arabia in team games?
Teutons, Turks, Vikings, and Persians would be low tier for the same reason they were in AoC. Good bonuses, but not as good as the bonuses found in some of the other civs. Indians would also be low tier, except in a few cases where they receive shore fish (who would want to take the risk?). Italians would also be low tier because all they have is the age advancement bonus.
Spanish, Saracens, and Koreans would be picked the least due to their lack of good bonuses. In team games, Spanish may rise up a few notches due to the excellent team bonus.
I read somewhere that Slav's bonus really only counts as 8% in reality. The farmers gather 15% faster while they work. Walking times weren't included.
Think it was on the reddit.
Think Incas are also going to be very powerful. Japs, yeah kinda but once their starting kick (with or without m@a is handled), their power fades away like in aoc.
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