Hello aoezone,
There is 7 matches today, for a total of 2^7 = 128 possibilities of different outcome. I created a program that would analyse each outcome to see where players could finish once the qualification stage is over.
There is a limitation to my program : I don't consider map wins. I only take the number of victories and the bucholz score.
At the end of the day, 1 player will be 4-0, 3 or 4 will be 3-1, 4 or 6 will be 2-2, 3 or 4 will be 1-3 and 1 will be 0-4.
Every 4-0 will qualify, every 3-1 will qualify and 3 out of the 4 2-2 or 4 out of the 6 2-2 will qualify.
Liereyy and Jordan
They are both certain to qualify with either 4-0 or 3-1.
Hera
If he wins, he's in. But if he loses, he could be in a 3-way tie in only 1 scenario.
Viper
If he is whatever happens.
Capoch
He is in whatever happens.
Tatoh
If he wins, he's in. If he loses, it could be hard for Tatoh. If 2 of his 3 previous opponents wins, his chances are clearly higher. If both Tatoh and Hera wins, Tatoh has 75% chances of qualifying. If Hera wins and Dogao or Villese, he is pretty much in.
MBL
If he wins, he's in. If he loses, his chances are still pretty high. If Liereyy wins, he's pretty much in. It's also the case for Slam and Barles. If MBL loses, he needs a victory by one of his previous opponents.
Daut
He needs a win. Even if he wins, he still needs a victory from one of his previous opponents.
Vinch
He needs a win. If he wins, he is in about 75%.
Villese
If he wins, he is in about 75%
Dogao
If he wins, its a toss up.
Slam
Out
Nicov and Barles
They are out.
There can be 2-way ties at the 8th position. Its hapening in 35 out of the 128 scenarios. One thing to note is that if you have 2 victories, having 6 bucholz score pretty much certifies you the qualification. 7 is always in.
I figured people would be interested in seeing the data, so here it is : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bJ1_BtJUTHVyZCkuQBtYj34i1wT8MYOMGdwoP1yIAE8/edit?usp=sharing
Have a great day of RBW5
There is 7 matches today, for a total of 2^7 = 128 possibilities of different outcome. I created a program that would analyse each outcome to see where players could finish once the qualification stage is over.
There is a limitation to my program : I don't consider map wins. I only take the number of victories and the bucholz score.
At the end of the day, 1 player will be 4-0, 3 or 4 will be 3-1, 4 or 6 will be 2-2, 3 or 4 will be 1-3 and 1 will be 0-4.
Every 4-0 will qualify, every 3-1 will qualify and 3 out of the 4 2-2 or 4 out of the 6 2-2 will qualify.
Liereyy and Jordan
They are both certain to qualify with either 4-0 or 3-1.
Hera
If he wins, he's in. But if he loses, he could be in a 3-way tie in only 1 scenario.
Viper
If he is whatever happens.
Capoch
He is in whatever happens.
Tatoh
If he wins, he's in. If he loses, it could be hard for Tatoh. If 2 of his 3 previous opponents wins, his chances are clearly higher. If both Tatoh and Hera wins, Tatoh has 75% chances of qualifying. If Hera wins and Dogao or Villese, he is pretty much in.
MBL
If he wins, he's in. If he loses, his chances are still pretty high. If Liereyy wins, he's pretty much in. It's also the case for Slam and Barles. If MBL loses, he needs a victory by one of his previous opponents.
Daut
He needs a win. Even if he wins, he still needs a victory from one of his previous opponents.
Vinch
He needs a win. If he wins, he is in about 75%.
Villese
If he wins, he is in about 75%
Dogao
If he wins, its a toss up.
Slam
Out
Nicov and Barles
They are out.
There can be 2-way ties at the 8th position. Its hapening in 35 out of the 128 scenarios. One thing to note is that if you have 2 victories, having 6 bucholz score pretty much certifies you the qualification. 7 is always in.
I figured people would be interested in seeing the data, so here it is : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bJ1_BtJUTHVyZCkuQBtYj34i1wT8MYOMGdwoP1yIAE8/edit?usp=sharing
Have a great day of RBW5
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