I agree it's complex. Remember I am not the one with a polar viewpoint: that lies with you and the rest of the people wholly against my premise. I have traded MANY times. I simply point out that 14 minutes is a long time, and that you will be at a very significant disadvantage vs a non trader during that time. By very significant I mean the equivalent of 40 Mangudai. My spreadsheet supports both of these figures. It can easily be tweaked for Arabia by lowering the bumping penalty from 89% to closer to 20%.It's not, empircal sience is still very common nowadays, there are simply some systems/facotrs that are way too complex to be analysed analytically, this also goes for trading on BF. There are simply too many factors depending on each other, to get a simply formula/simple maths and therefore the experiment in form of rated games (=experience) gives us the best strategy and well atm thats trading on BF.
But defending your side of the argument by saying "it's complex" is hiding from the issue. Everything is complex. If you want to keep blindly trading and not crunch any numbers, go for it.