TaToH's strange match point phenomenon

[Liamsmalley7]

I remember coming across this post in the AoE2 reddit by user @Umdeuter, and I thought it was pretty remarkable that TaToH generally performs very well in normal matches, but had lost every single match point (3rd game in Bo3, 5th game in Bo5, etc..) in S-Tier 1v1 tournaments, over the past year (as of February 2022, just after WWC)

Well, again we see this unusual pattern, with TaToH being eliminated from The Resurgence after 3-2 losses to both Villese and saymyname respectively, making him 0-16 in match point scenarios since HC4. Even more interestingly, TaToH beat saymyname with ease during the first round, 3-0.

So what do people think is going on here? Is this just a complete coincidence and Tatoh is the most unlucky player ever or is there some seriously crazy mental block going on?

 

[KolyaKrasotkin]

If it were an issue of sports psychology, posts like this are probably not helpful.

 

[Monocle]

Im kind of surprised as well cause tatooh is absolutly incredible in team game atm.

 

[Huehuecoyotl22]

I don't know if the "S tier" matters.

If you look at A and B tier tournaments in 2022:
In Master of HyperRandom, he lost 4:5 vs. Villese (final), but in OnlyBans 0:2 vs. classicpro (Ro16), and in King of Americas 3 he won the final vs. Nicov 4:2.
He also won Deep Waters Pro League: Season 2 and the Spanish national tournament (but that one was expected). In Sink or Swim he is in the final and he has had appearances in JorDan's Medieval Brawl(s).

I would say that a 4:5 vs. Villese or a 4:2 vs. Nicov (although B tier and A tier) are harder or easier than a 2:3 vs. saymyname. So it can only be random coincidence or really thinking "this is S tier", so getting more nervous.
Now that he is with TyRanT/Secret/GL since almost 4 years, I would think that he has some of the best supporters and motivators as team members, who I believe also help him preparing for 1v1 matches, so I also don't think it's lack of mental support or experience.
Did GL and/or TaToH say anything about it already?

So in my opinion it is still just coincidence/bad luck that it happens exactly in the S tier tournaments.

 

[Salawen]

i feel like for him it cood be some sort of self fulfiling profesy you now. imagin this situation: you play bo5 and score is 2-2. you are tatoh and think `i am nown for losing match points, i can feel the preshure´. your confidence will be low becos in your brain you have this thinking of all the lost match points in the past. he needs to end that vishes cycle so he can have a cool mind in those situations in the future. i like tatoh and wish only the best for him.

 

[SuperskinnyBLS]

Saymyname usually is very incosistent, he goes from playing like TheViper to performing like Superskinny. If you follow his tournament performances, you will remember that he was the one who pushed Viper to his absolute limits in the last KOTD.
All of the above means that Tatoh simply faced TheViperlike Saymyname that day, in my opinion.

 

[IYIyTh]

If it were an issue of sports psychology, posts like this are probably not helpful.

Didn't know we were all trained sports psychologists with an obligation to care.

About as controversial as saying Nicov experiences the same phenomenon.

 

[EricDolphy]

Tatoh is one of the best players in the world and his rank would be top 5-7 if everyone was active. When he reaches final stages of a tournament he is likely to face better players than him, so he loses. In the post you quote most of the series were lost vs Viper, Liereyy, Hera, all players who are above his level.

 

[malamadre]

I think its coincidence.

 

[archxeon]

Tatoh is one of the best players in the world and his rank would be top 5-7 if everyone was active. When he reaches final stages of a tournament he is likely to face better players than him, so he loses. In the post you quote most of the series were lost vs Viper, Liereyy, Hera, all players who are above his level.

Wonder if 50% or more of those close matches went in his favor, we would put him in that list.

 

[willdbeast]

It's just hax

 

[TopperHarley]

First and foremost, Tatoh is showing what an exceptionally strong player he is by even getting to the final decider game vs. guys like Viper and Lierrey etc

He has been a bit unlucky with these final games but I think It’s only a question of time before he gets his big tournament win

 

[lecracheursagacite]

If it were an issue of sports psychology, posts like this are probably not helpful.

This post isn't saying he is incapable of doing it just noticing a trend. I don't think it's problematic until it becomes unreasonable conclusions about personal ability.

 

[oozkan]

About as controversial as saying Nicov experiences the same phenomenon.

Nicov is unlucky with draws though, poor lad always ends up with favourites in early stage even in random draws like Hidden Cup

 

[IYIyTh]

Nicov is unlucky with draws though, poor lad always ends up with favourites in early stage even in random draws like Hidden Cup

I don't necessarily think that's the case. That is what happens when you make the top 16 etc of a tournament. Everyone you play is going to be really good. In AOE2, the top 4-5 at a given time typically make folks just outside the top 10 look like a 1600 vs 1800 match. Both relatively high ratings, but there's a substantial amount of intangibles (whether it's apm or ability to macro/focus better while executing,) that set them apart.

I think he and Tatoh are just well seeded for their skill level and perform about as expected. Tatoh drafts better and has more strategy/mixed map plays, but I don't think it's unfair to say his meta play is usually a tier below the best of the best.

There is no shame in being a top 20 player consistently. AOE2 is played in series, and because of that fact the top 4-5 players who are REALLY good more than often overcome upsets. The skill gap is jut that great.

It's like having to not just beat the best team in given sport once, but 4/7 times to advance.

Always kind of laughable that folks give them **** because they're still in the top 99.9%

 

[willdbeast]

Always kind of laughable that folks give them **** because they're still in the top 99.9%

Uh, basically everyone is in the top 99.9% tho 11

 

[lecracheursagacite]

Uh, basically everyone is in the top 99.9% tho 11

No he means the base is 99.9% not the ceiling.

 

[Tendo]

I always thought this statistic seems kinda fishy, maybe I just don't understand part of this so if someone could enlighten me in case I just misunderstood.

Well, again we see this unusual pattern, with TaToH being eliminated from The Resurgence after 3-2 losses to both Villese and saymyname respectively, making him 0-16 in match point scenarios since HC4. Even more interestingly, TaToH beat saymyname with ease during the first round, 3-0.

So he won against saymyname before, so that means he won a matchpoint, doesn't it?

Also looking at the reddit post it's only about playing against the absolute top top Players like Viper, Lierrey, Hera, Yo and Jordan.
If you count match-ups like the one against saymyname then why doesn't a match-up like f.e against MBL in the Open Classic mid 2021 count, where he beat MBL 3-2 even though he was 2-1 behind?

Obviously that is only 1 example, there are also other cases where he beat Villese (KoTD, RBW5), Nicov (KoTD), Dogao (RBW5, Holy Cup), Capoch (Open Classic) in S-Tier Tournaments.

Also if you only count the mentioned top top Players above, why doesn't the 3rd Place Match 2-0 Win for Tatoh against Jordan count in Open Classic?

So imo it's wrong to say that Tatoh loses in general all Match-Points, he just loses against the mentioned 5 Players pretty consistently, while being often pretty close in winning against them.

 

[robo]

I always thought this statistic seems kinda fishy, maybe I just don't understand part of this so if someone could enlighten me in case I just misunderstood.


So he won against saymyname before, so that means he won a matchpoint, doesn't it?

By match point, they mean the final game in a series. So the 5th game in a Bo5, 7th game in a Bo7 etc.

but had lost every single match point (3rd game in Bo3, 5th game in Bo5, etc..) in S-Tier 1v1 tournaments, over the past year (as of February 2022, just after WWC)

 

[Tendo]

By match point, they mean the final game in a series. So the 5th game in a Bo5, 7th game in a Bo7 etc.

A 4th game in a BO5 is also a Match-Point, like if you're leading 2-1 then you have 2 Match-Points (if you're opponent is leading 2-1 he has 2 Match-Points).
Which you can see in the Reddit Post, otherwise how could a 2-3 loss against lierrey be 3 lossed Matchpoints if only the 5th game counts?

 

[LmScar12]

A 4th game in a BO5 is also a Match-Point, like if you're leading 2-1 then you have 2 Match-Points (if you're opponent is leading 2-1 he has 2 Match-Points).
Which you can see in the Reddit Post, otherwise how could a 2-3 loss against lierrey be 3 lossed Matchpoints if only the 5th game counts?

Exactly. "Match point" from the reddit post means exactly the same thing as match point in tennis: If you win the point (or game), then you win the game (or the set in the case of AoE2). Thus match points are "owned"; a match point for you is not necessarily a match point for your opponent (and never is if you're required to win by 2). Tatoh went 0 for 14 in his 14 match points that were listed in the reddit post.

 

[Umdeuter]

Please note that my initial post was about his matchpoints AGAINST TOP PLAYERS

If he had a 0:x performance in ALL matchpoint games, that would mean that he never won a set.

He did perfectly fine against "normal" opponents and against saymyname he also lost 2 out of 4 before his matchpoint game. Saymyname just played very well.

We shouldn't attribute every set that Tatoh lost to that factor. He plays many, many sets and occasionally he'll lose one.

 

[dNlnn]

Lmao midwits. Match point in that post is clearly defined. It is the decider match of a series when both players are tied and the series has went to the last game.

In my opinion it is absolutely clear that he chokes hard in these situations or something is up with his drafting that leaves him hopeless in the last game.

Let's put numbers to it.

I've read a couple of post above that he is 0-16.
We can model this as a Binomial process. Since we are looking only what is happening on those "match points" we can assume that the probabilty of him winning is 50% since to get there tatoh and his opponent have won the same number of games in the series. This approximation should be good enough for what we want to do here.

If he went 0-16... the probability of him winning more games than that i.e. 1-15, 2-14, 3-13, 4-12 etc. is an asthonishing 99,9984% so you decide if that is "bad luck" or a "random happening" or there is something else.

To put in other words if he replayed all those decider matches 100000 times in only two ocasions you would expect him going 0-16.

 

[enmipho]

We can model this as a Binomial process. Since we are looking only what is happening on those "match points" we can assume that the probabilty of him winning is 50% since to get there tatoh and his opponent have won the same number of games in the series.

Well, if I understand correctly, the opponents he faced in those 16 match points are Viper (x4), Liereyy (x3), Hera (x3), Jordan (x2), Yo (x2), Saymyname (x1) and Villese (x1).

I understand your argument that Tatoh got to a match point against them in each case, but it still seems really difficult to give anyone a 50% chance on average of winning those 16 matches.

 

[dNlnn]

Well, if I understand correctly, the opponents he faced in those 16 match points are Viper (x4), Liereyy (x3), Hera (x3), Jordan (x2), Yo (x2), Saymyname (x1) and Villese (x1).

I understand your argument that Tatoh got to a match point against them in each case, but it still seems really difficult to give anyone a 50% chance on average of winning those 16 matches.

Obviously it is impossible to gauge exactly which % of winning in each of those 16 matches each player had but it should be close to 50% from a theoretical point of view. Recall that Tatoh is top 3 according to aoe2 elo https://aoe-elo.com/players so in some of those matches the probability should be even higher than 50% for the spaniard making the argument even stronger.

The simple conclusion is that something is happening on those matches or he has been extremely/astronomically unlucky regardless of the exact numbers you want to use.