SY Nations Cup II: Prediction Contest Overview

Netherlandsprv_limb

Administrator
Staff member
Dec 9, 2014
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#1

After about 4 months and a week, SY Nations Cups II has come to an end and with it the Prediction Contest has also come to an end. The contest started on July 15th with the match prediction for the group stage, the match prediction for the group stage lasted about 5 weeks. After the match prediction in the Group Stage the prediction contest went on to the "wager system". The wager system started on August 26th and ended with the final game of the tournament on November 8th with China A (vs) Dream Team.

A big thank you

First of all we would like to thank the SY sponsor to sponsor this event, not only the Nations Cup, but also the Prediction Contest. SY was generous enough to grand us a prize pool of $1,000.

Second we would like to thank the tournament admins, streamers and players for organizing the tournament and providing us with enjoyable stream and countless of hours of recs and fun.

Third we would like to thank all participants for entering and participating in this event and for your patience and understanding during the contest.

Lastly I would like to thank the staff that helped us provide the best bets and odds. The staff members who helped a lot are:
  • Tsu_NilPferD, Nilpferd and Arma were both part of the team for the first prediction contest nimanoe and I ran (War is Coming). Nilpferd and I discussed a couple of times to figure out the best bets and odds for the bets. Nilpferd and Arma are the spine of the prediction contest team, providing with the most input of them all.
  • Arma, like with Nilpferd, Arma and I have discussed the bets a couple of times. Arma also suggested a way to change the wager system, which wasn’t used in this contest but might be used in future contests. By coincidence Arma was top of the table almost the whole competition (Finals Stage and onwards). I really enjoyed discussing the bets with him, because he jokingly (I think) asked everytime to just end the contest. :lol:
  • Millo, Millo was the winner of the last prediction contest which featured the wager bet system (War is Coming). We wanted to ask players who were either already eliminated or didn’t participate in the tournament at all. Since Millo said he wouldn’t play a game with the Argentina A team, we asked him to join the team for the contest. Millo provided with useful insight and commented on the odds for the bets.
  • Tatoh, Tatoh was asked as arguably the best Spanish player active at the moment. When he was asked I don’t think he even had to think about it, because Tatoh is happy to join anything that has remotely to do with an AoC tournament. Similar to Millo he provided us with useful insights and comments on the bets/odds.
  • Juan_, we didn't plan to ask Juan to be part of the team, because we expected the Argentina A team to go through great lengths and challenge for the top positions. We didn’t want to distract the players with this while still playing and competing for the top positions. He was especially helpful with the bets and scheduling insight for the South American teams.
  • nC_Andorin, Andorin was a little too busy to contribute a lot of time, but still proved to be a good asset concerning input for the bets and odds.
  • Spaden, Spaden joined the team even though he said he dislikes betting. While disliking betting he was still able to provide some good input.
  • 8th_wonder, wonder was asked via PM if he wanted to help out with the contest and he responded in his regular characteristic response with just: “okay”, nothing more nothing less. Everything he said something during the contest it always was short and straight to the point.
The last member I would like to thank is the one person who helped me the most and is my partner during the whole contest. This person is nimanoe, nimanoe supported me throughout the whole contest. He did not only help provide bets and odds, but helped me with the administrative work as well. He verified all bets the participants placed in the module, so the outcome would be correct and to make sure we did not make a mistake. I exchanged a lot of ideas with nimanoe, we tried to come up with ways to make the contest run as smooth as possible when teams postponed or played at a time that was not really convenient for us. On top of that we discussed the progress and what we were going to do next. So a very big thanks to nimanoe.

Congratulations

Congratulations to all participants and to the top 5 in particular. The Germans and the Mexicans ruled the prediction contest in the last weeks of Nations Cup II Prediction Contest; this is also reflected in the final position. Arma won the contest with 5,225 gold and with it $500 provided by the SY sponsor. The other prize winners are Tsu_NilPferD,
scud90, (_blank) L_Clan_Cabron__ and Siesta_ who won $250, $125, $75 and $50 respectively.

Some stats

Group Stage
We have posted 60 bets in total, of which 11 bets got voided:
  • Week 1: 12 bets (0 bets voided)
  • Week 2: 12 bets (1 bet voided)
  • Week 3: 12 bets (3 bets voided)
  • Week 4: 12 bets (2 bets voided)
  • Week 5: 12 bets (5 bets voided)
Highest gains in the Group Stage:
Most predictable matches in the Group Stage (point wise)
  1. Brazil A (vs) Vietnam B - 248 points rewarded
  2. Canada (vs) Argentina B - 244 points rewarded
  3. China A (vs) Russia - 244 points rewarded
  4. Brazil B (vs) Turkey B - 238 points rewarded
  5. China A (vs) Poland - 214 points rewarded
Biggest upsets in the Group Stage:
Biggest upsets in the Group Stage (point wise)
  1. Brazil A (vs) Germany A - 0 points rewarded
  2. (czech) Czech A (vs) Japan A - 3 points rewarded
  3. Argentina A (vs) Norway A - 4 points rewarded
  4. Mexico B (vs) Germany A - 9 points rewarded
  5. China D (vs) USA A - 14 points rewarded
Participants:
  • There were 77 participants in total
  • Highest amount of participants in a week: 63 (week 1)
  • Lowest amount of participants in a week: 45 (week 5)
  • 3 different number 1s ( (_blank) ThatsIt (4), Skibari (1) and scandisk (1))
  • 26 different nations represented
  • Most represented country: Germany 9 participants (12%)
  • Most represented continent: Europe 43 participants (56%)
Finals Stage
We have posted 86 bets in total, of which 23 bets got voided:
  • Week 1: 12 bets (1 bet voided)
  • Week 2: 16 bets (1 bet voided)
  • Week 3: 14 bets (8 bets voided)
  • Week 4: 14 bets (8 bets voided)
  • Week 5: 20 bets (0 bets voided)
  • Week 6: 5 bets (5 bets voided)
  • Week 7: 5 bets (0 bets voided)
Highest gain on a single bet:
The highest gain on a single bet was Week 3: bet 5 with 9,044 gold. 4,111 gold staked with odds of 3.2.
5. (Closed) China A (vs) Finland , Game 5: SY_Land Nomad, what civilization will not be picked by Finland?
  • Spanish (5.0) (-270)
  • Mayans (3.2) (+9044)
  • Mongols (5.0) (-200)
  • Persians (3.5) (-150)
  • Chinese or 2 of the above mentioned civs (8.0) (-0)
Highest loss on a single bet:
The highest loss on a single bet was Week 3: bet 1 with – 4,201 gold. 4,201 gold staked with odds of 1.80 for predicting the result if Finland starts with 3 points.
1. (Closed) China A (vs) Finland , who will win if Finland gains an extra 3 points? (If real score is 5-0, 5-1 China A (option a) win, real score 5-2 draw (option c), real score 5-3, 5-4 Finland win (option b) etc.)
  • China A (1.8) (-4201)
  • Finland (6.0) (+3120)
  • Draw (3.0) (-0)
Participants:
  • There were 83 participants in total
  • Only 5 players busted, ended with 0 gold left
  • Highest amount of participants in a week: 44 (week 1)
  • Lowest amount of participants in a week: 10 (week 7)
  • 3 different number 1s ( Arma (5), Lews_Therin (1) and Skibari (1))
  • 7 participants who played every week ( Arma, (_blank) L_Clan_Cabron__, pedro, scandisk, scud90,
    Siesta_, Skibari and Tsu_NilPferD)
  • Average entries per contestant: 2.2 entries
  • 27 different nations represented
  • Most represented country: Germany 10 participants (12%)
  • Most represented continent: Europe 45 participants (54%)
Final words

We hope all participants had fun while competing for the top 5. We had fun organizing this contest, not everything went as planned and in hindsight things could have gone better. If you have any suggestions for future prediction contests you can go here (viewtopic.php?f=1136&t=116984) and leave a comment. You can use that topic to submit what your opinions were about the contest, things that went well and thing that could have gone/be done better. This will help us in future with other prediction contests if we happen to run another one.
 
Apr 11, 2010
500
0
16
#3
I want to thank the sponsor and especially limb for his huge efforts in running the contest :clap: was really close in the end but seems I took just enough risks. It was really fun thinking about the probabilities of the bets :crazy:
 
Jul 3, 2012
203
1
23
31
CDMX
Voobly
EL_PUERCO_NEGRO
View profile
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Losses
741
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#4
Big thx for sy sponsor , also prv_limb did u awesome job i cant imagine how many hours u took for this , and thx for all participants this was fun .
 

Austriateutonic_tanks

Two handed swordman
Mar 30, 2013
2,178
536
118
#6
thx for your great work guys and thx to the sponsor for making that happen

gg wp Arma

some conspiracy theories:

Lastly I would like to thank the staff that helped us provide the best bets and odds. The staff members who helped a lot are:

Tsu_NilPferD, Nilpferd and Arma were both part of the team for the first prediction contest nimanoe and I ran (War is Coming). Nilpferd and I discussed a couple of times to figure out the best bets and odds for the bets. Nilpferd and Arma are the spine of the prediction contest team, providing with the most input of them all.
Arma, like with Nilpferd, Arma and I have discussed the bets a couple of times. Arma also suggested a way to change the wager system, which wasn’t used in this contest but might be used in future contests. By coincidence Arma was top of the table almost the whole competition (Finals Stage and onwards). I really enjoyed discussing the bets with him, because he jokingly (I think) asked everytime to just end the contest. :lol:
Arma won the contest with 5,225 gold and with it $500 provided by the SY sponsor. The other prize winners are Tsu_NilPferD
SO RIGGED
 

SpainAtor

Known Member
Apr 3, 2011
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TaToH
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RM - 1v1
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#7
The work you have done behind the scenes on this prediction contest was just insane limb, really very good job man, you are amazing. Chapeau!
 

Netherlandsprv_limb

Administrator
Staff member
Dec 9, 2014
1,764
57
63
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#12
I think we all are, this was just a happy coincidence and I am happy that some of the people who put most effort towards the contest get rewarded with the top 2 places. In a way karma paid out for them. :D
 

GermanynC_Andorin

Well Known Pikeman
Oct 22, 2010
1,816
152
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_Andorin
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#14
Congrats Arma and the other winners... and a big thanks to the SY sponsor, prv_limb and others. :smile:
Sry i didn't have much time to give more input but Arma, Nili Millo, Tatoh and co did a great job there.
Looking forward to more contests like these.
 

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