[Spoilers!] Potential standings after current ECL stage

[Cuth]

I really hope a chinese team get into the finals. Frantic is a good team but the lack of xiaofan as 4th is a pity. It's a pity in general that the chinese split their best players in two teams.

I wouldn't mind seeing Suomi in the finals either. aM is pretty good too but we've seen them at NaC alrdy and I don't feel their teamwork is on par with SY/Secret.

VNA could do some upsets but I doubt they will get second place. Heresy is a lot of stronger now and BzK is a lot weaker in team games.

"the Chinese"... They didn't "split" into two teams. They're just two different teams. SY is probably the oldest team in ECL (except VNS?).

COuld be wrong but I don't think Yo and Tim ever even played in the same team.

 

[rustyknivess]

"the Chinese"... They didn't "split" into two teams. They're just two different teams. SY is probably the oldest team in ECL (except VNS?).

COuld be wrong but I don't think Yo and Tim ever even played in the same team.

SY is just CKF but with Yo instead of Tim (paladin/lovecheng/Dee were both in CKF).

If Vivi wasn't that cocky and lovecheng was more active the chinese dream team of Yo/Tim/Lyx/Vivi/Lovecheng would be really strong. It's also a pity that James quit.

Second/third/fourth/fifth place gap is really small so I see everyone having a shot at second place aside of Heresy/BzK/VNA. But there are plenty of chances left so who knows!

 

[rustyknivess]

Oh and I also think CL is really good but he isn't that much active either. I don't think the Chinese teams are motivated unlike the ones where the sponsors are Chinese themselfs. The Clan Showdown that SY won vs Tyrant showed how motivated SY was in the finals.

 

[Huehuecoyotl22]

Oh and I also think CL is really good but he isn't that much active either. I don't think the Chinese teams are motivated unlike the ones where the sponsors are Chinese themselfs. The Clan Showdown that SY won vs Tyrant showed how motivated SY was in the finals.

Both CL and LoveCheng are very active, play 10-15 games on Voobly China almost every day. Most of them are Nomad, but all of them at 2k1+ level.

 

[Kantos]

Spoiler

The definition of the second spot will be very tight even till the last event. Here are my thoughts:

SOUTHEAST ASIA 3v3 STAGE
The semifinal between aM and Suomi is very important, there are 3 points in dispute, with the possibility to win 2 more points in the finals. The team who loseS this match, has to "pray" that the other team doesn't win in the final as well.

My predictions: 1st: Secret 2nd: Suomi

AMERICAS 2v2
Sy: Most likely the couple will be Yo + Fengxing. They need to win against Bzk but in the semifinal they have a very hard spot most likely against Secret (probably Viper + Tatoh).
Suomi: The couple probably will be Villese + Zuppi. His situation in this event is worst than SY because they have to face Secret directly in the first round. I don´t see them wining
Frantic: Maybe CL + Vivi. They have an "easy" first match up against Heresy, and then they could face Am team, who are the favorites if case they face each other, i think.
aM: With probably Nicov + Liereyy, they have in this even a great opportunity to reach at least the final. Against VNA and Frantic (if the chinese team win), they need to win
My predictions: Am and Secret reach the finals. Sy and Frantic lost in the semi

AMERICAS 4V4 STAGE
aM: They are the favourites against Frantic, but then the have to face the winner of Sy vs Secret (probably the best 4v4 teams in the event). Hard that they reach the final
Frantic: They have maybe the hardest path to the finals. aM, Secret/Sy and then probably Suomi. Maybe losing in the first round
Sy: I think this team is very strong in 4v4 situations, so they have a great opportunity to defeat Secret in the first round and then reach the finals beating ¿aM? in the semi. But they have a very tough bracket, taking in consideration that they could face also Suomi in the gran final. Even though, i see them wining the whole event
Suomi: they have a very good situation to at least reach the finals. The "hardest" teams are in the other side of the bracket and i think they have good chances to win against Heresy and Bzk/VNA
My preditctions: 1st: Sy 2nd: Suomi Semi: aM and VNA

EUROPE WEST 1V1
Frantic: ¿Cl and Xiaofan?. The will face Secret, so probably one of them has to face Viper and the other one ¿Tatoh? I think is very dificult that they catch any points
Suomi: ¿The Max and Rubenstock vs Bact and Stark? I think here Suomi will reach maximun 1 point. Then The Max, if he win, have to face 1 of the Secret boys, so.. very hard
Sy: ¿Lyx and Fengxing? I think Lyx is very strong in 1v1, but in the second round he probably have to face Nicov or Mbl, so i don´t see him advancing to the next round. Also i don´t see Fengxing winning against ¿Dogao, Mattheus, Miguel?
aM: They could use Mbl and Nicov as their players. I think this team have a great opportunity to reach some good points. I see Nicov and Mbl reaching at least de semifinal, both of them
My predictions: Is hard to predict because we don´t know who are the players and i wich side of the bracket are going to be each one of them, but i think the semi will in both cases Secret vs aM

EUROPE WEST 3V3
Frantic: I see them loosing in first round against Soumi
Suomi: They are one of the best 3v3 teams. I see them reaching at least the final. ¿And wining?
aM and Sy: is hard to say who i think will win. It will be a very even match up and one of the most important of the tournament, if both of them still have chances at that point.
My predictions: 1st Suomi 2nd: Secret Semi: VNA and aM/Sy

So in general i think that Suomi is the team that have more chances to the second spot, followed very closely for aM and Sy. Finally i think Frantic will be in a very hard spot and they need to win very "important" matches to go to the LAN. Of course i don´t take in consideration any "upset", because they are almost imposible from predict, but most likely there are going some

 

[ArthurMarques]

Really like this kind of discussion! I was making an ECL calculator these days just to practice some stuff in excel and finished yesterday (I'm not sure if there's already something like this for ECL, but again, I was making this just for fun 11).

I'm going to leave the link in case anyone wants to download it (it does not work well on google sheets or other online viewer). In it you can select the ECL stage you want and predict the results, the points in the league table should automatically update after the new scores are filled. I have not filled the Southeast Asia 3v3 stage to prevent spoilers. Also, you can edit the past stages in case you want to see what would have happened if something went different. It might help you to see what the potential standings may be at the end.

Link to the spreadsheet:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/rc545lf9dlm25py/ECL Calculator.xlsx?dl=0

 

[rustyknivess]

Spoiler

The definition of the second spot will be very tight even till the last event. Here are my thoughts:

SOUTHEAST ASIA 3v3 STAGE
The semifinal between aM and Suomi is very important, there are 3 points in dispute, with the possibility to win 2 more points in the finals. The team who loseS this match, has to "pray" that the other team doesn't win in the final as well.

My predictions: 1st: Secret 2nd: Suomi

AMERICAS 2v2
Sy: Most likely the couple will be Yo + Fengxing. They need to win against Bzk but in the semifinal they have a very hard spot most likely against Secret (probably Viper + Tatoh).
Suomi: The couple probably will be Villese + Zuppi. His situation in this event is worst than SY because they have to face Secret directly in the first round. I don´t see them wining
Frantic: Maybe CL + Vivi. They have an "easy" first match up against Heresy, and then they could face Am team, who are the favorites if case they face each other, i think.
aM: With probably Nicov + Liereyy, they have in this even a great opportunity to reach at least the final. Against VNA and Frantic (if the chinese team win), they need to win
My predictions: Am and Secret reach the finals. Sy and Frantic lost in the semi

AMERICAS 4V4 STAGE
aM: They are the favourites against Frantic, but then the have to face the winner of Sy vs Secret (probably the best 4v4 teams in the event). Hard that they reach the final
Frantic: They have maybe the hardest path to the finals. aM, Secret/Sy and then probably Suomi. Maybe losing in the first round
Sy: I think this team is very strong in 4v4 situations, so they have a great opportunity to defeat Secret in the first round and then reach the finals beating ¿aM? in the semi. But they have a very tough bracket, taking in consideration that they could face also Suomi in the gran final. Even though, i see them wining the whole event
Suomi: they have a very good situation to at least reach the finals. The "hardest" teams are in the other side of the bracket and i think they have good chances to win against Heresy and Bzk/VNA
My preditctions: 1st: Sy 2nd: Suomi Semi: aM and VNA

EUROPE WEST 1V1
Frantic: ¿Cl and Xiaofan?. The will face Secret, so probably one of them has to face Viper and the other one ¿Tatoh? I think is very dificult that they catch any points
Suomi: ¿The Max and Rubenstock vs Bact and Stark? I think here Suomi will reach maximun 1 point. Then The Max, if he win, have to face 1 of the Secret boys, so.. very hard
Sy: ¿Lyx and Fengxing? I think Lyx is very strong in 1v1, but in the second round he probably have to face Nicov or Mbl, so i don´t see him advancing to the next round. Also i don´t see Fengxing winning against ¿Dogao, Mattheus, Miguel?
aM: They could use Mbl and Nicov as their players. I think this team have a great opportunity to reach some good points. I see Nicov and Mbl reaching at least de semifinal, both of them
My predictions: Is hard to predict because we don´t know who are the players and i wich side of the bracket are going to be each one of them, but i think the semi will in both cases Secret vs aM

EUROPE WEST 3V3
Frantic: I see them loosing in first round against Soumi
Suomi: They are one of the best 3v3 teams. I see them reaching at least the final. ¿And wining?
aM and Sy: is hard to say who i think will win. It will be a very even match up and one of the most important of the tournament, if both of them still have chances at that point.
My predictions: 1st Suomi 2nd: Secret Semi: VNA and aM/Sy

So in general i think that Suomi is the team that have more chances to the second spot, followed very closely for aM and Sy. Finally i think Frantic will be in a very hard spot and they need to win very "important" matches to go to the LAN. Of course i don´t take in consideration any "upset", because they are almost imposible from predict, but most likely there are going some

Was a nice read, I like how you don't underestimate the other teams.

 

[Tarsiz]

Don't underestimate Heresy in 2v2 stage, Miguel + dogao is a world class duo that could certainly beat anyone on a good day and in any case threaten any team with the proper preparation.

 

[Kantos]

Was a nice read, I like how you don't underestimate the other teams.

Of course every team have chances to go to the LAN, but I wanted to analise those who are very close to make it, prioritizing the direct matches between them. If you want to include all the teams and all the possibilities, the analysis will be 3 times longer

 

[HarshtJ]

Sy: I think this team is very strong in 4v4 situations, so they have a great opportunity to defeat Secret in the first round

Yes this is possible but Secret faced SY in 4v4 Europe East and 4v4 East Asia winning both meetings 3-0. I think favourites should be Secret.

 

[Kantos]

Yes this is possible but Secret faced SY in 4v4 Europe East and 4v4 East Asia winning both meetings 3-0. I think favourites should be Secret.

Yes I think you are right, i didn't remeber the second 4v4 between them

 

[dooog]

Well, I did not see that scoreline coming

 

[archxeon]

Random Musings:
1. Whoever wins the SEA 3v3 final: there will be 4 teams with a maximum of 2 points separating them.
2. If aM wins, (with TheViper not playing the chances improve a lot) they will be tied with SY for 2nd place.
3. Heresy will mathematically be unable to make more points than what Secret will have after the current stage.
3. Heresy can still make it to the LAN Event (theoretically).

 

[Seb1234]

Heresy can still make it to the LAN Event (theoretically).

Even if just theoretically, i'm pretty sure that is not true. You need to consider that in every round some teams will get points.

 

[dodageka]

Even if just theoretically, i'm pretty sure that is not true. You need to consider that in every round some teams will get points.

I just checked, it is still possible for Heresy, independent of the outcome of the current SEA 3v3 event

 

[archxeon]

Even if just theoretically, i'm pretty sure that is not true. You need to consider that in every round some teams will get points.

.
It's actually true. I had checked. Need some help from other lower ranked teams and need to win everything.

 

[JoshuaR]

Day 1
1v1 (x2) Bo3 1 Point per match win. First place from League Stage selects a player to represent the team in this match. This player challenges one of the other teams’ players, then the second team challenges one of the first team’s players.
2v2 Bo3 1 Point. The two players from each team who played in the 1v1 are not allowed to play here.
3v3 Bo3 1 Point. No player limitations.

Day 2
4v4 Bo1 1 Point No player limitations
3v3 Bo3 1 Point No player limitations.
1v1 (x2) Bo3 1 Point per match win. The four players must be the players who played in the 2v2 from Day 1. The highest team from the League stage issues the first challenge.
2v2 Bo3 1 Point. The four players must be the players who played in the 1v1 games from Day 1.

Thanks for the info. I'll echo the other comment in that the above settings might lead to either players five and six not playing, or it might be to a team's disadvantage to bring the 5th-6th players.

Additionally, although 3v3 games do require more out of the pocket player than 4v4s and for many can feel more interesting, I feel like it'd be a shame to have so many great players in the finals sitting on the sidelines for most every game. Personally, I would drop the 1v1s in favor of 4v4s since in the end I want to see these bad ass teams compete as teams, and I get to see plenty of 1v1 games between most all these players. It seems like an incredible shame that in two days and up to twenty-five games, there would only be a single 4v4 match. (E.G. rather than 2x 1v1 Bo3, you could do 1x 4v4 Bo5 on Day 1, and you could have a Bo7 on day 2).

 

[amazing_knight]

*Calling out the geeks*
Now that only 1 stage remains, can someone do the same analysis after the current stage (4v4 America).
Here are a few questions everyone's probably wondering -

1) Is there any possible scenario where Secret does not make the cut or are they confirmed finalists now?
2) What would it take for Suomi to make it to the top 2?
3) Is there any other team which has a chance to make to top 2 besides Secret, aM and Suomi? If yes, what would that take.

The results of the 4v4 Americas Stage is not updated on standings page just yet, but please do take that into account in your analysis.

 

[Tarsiz]

No need for major analysis I think.

1) Secret is in no matter what (they can be surpassed by aM for first place but will remain top 2 no matter what).
2) Suomi is 13 points behind aM, meaning they need to win both the 1v1 and the 3v3 stage to qualify, and hope that aM screws up big time and doesn't score any more points.
3) SY could technically still surpass aM but they would need basically to place 1st and 2nd in the 1v1 and win the 3v3 and hope that aM doesn't score any point.
4) Viper is playing the 1v1 and if he wins, Secret & aM are qualified no matter what.

 

[peterdastehter]

No need for major analysis I think.
[...]
4) Viper is playing the 1v1 and if he wins, Secret & aM are qualified no matter what.

All the info necessary.

 

[chrummi]

1) Is there any possible scenario where Secret does not make the cut or are they confirmed finalists now?
2) What would it take for Suomi to make it to the top 2?
3) Is there any other team which has a chance to make to top 2 besides Secret, aM and Suomi? If yes, what would that take.

1v1 Events:1st= 6pts2nd= 4pts=3rd= 3pts=5th= 1p
All Other Events:1st= 8pts2nd= 6pts=3rd= 3pts

Current standings:
Secret 59
AM 49
Suomi 36
SY 33
Frantic 32
VNA 16
BzK 10
Heresy 5

Teams can gather a Maximum of 18 points in the last 2 rounds. Secret already is qualified for the Lan stage, only AM has the chance to grab the first spot from them but there is no way any other team surpasses them. In theory Suomi, SY and Frantic all could potentially finish second, but the difference to AM is pretty big.

Frantic is 17 points behind, so they would need to win both events plus also get the second place in the 1v1 event whilst AM doesnt get any points. If AM gets 1 point (=one of their 2 players winning their first round match) there will be a tie (there teams would play a series with qualification settings against each other), if AM gets 2 or more points (=both of their players reaching second round, 1 reaching the semi finals or the team winning the first round of the 3v3 stage) Frantic is out.

SY is 16 points behind, so they also need to win both events plus getting the second place in the 1v1 event too. If AM wins 2 points (both players reaching the second round of the 1v1 stage plus losing to SY in the 3v3 event) there is a tie. If AM gets 3 or more points (=one of their players reaching the semis) SY is out.

Suomi is 13 Points behind, so they dont need to win the maximum of 18 points to stand a chance (but of course that would help a lot). To make sure Suomi doesnt have a chance to qualify AM needs at least 6 points.

 

[chenteparap]

Does someone have the table of rankings updated with the results of yesterday?

 

[amazing_knight]

4) Viper is playing the 1v1 and if he wins, Secret & aM are qualified no matter what.

What if -

1) Viper wins, but Suomi gets 2nd and 5th in the 1v1.
2) Suomi wins the 3v3.
3) aM screws big time and doesn't win any more points.

That's a total of 13 points for Suomi, which gets their total at 49
So assuming Viper wins the 1v1, there's one possible case in which Suomi and aM might result in equal points. What happens then?

Correct me if I'm wrong please.

 

[amazing_knight]

Does someone have the table of rankings updated with the results of yesterday?

Current standings:
Secret 59
AM 49
Suomi 36
SY 33
Frantic 32
VNA 16
BzK 10
Heresy 5

 

[chrummi]

yes its possible that AM and Suomi end with the same amount of points even if Viper wins the 1v1 event. In this case AM and Suomi will play a series with qualification settings to determine who goes to the lan event.