Red Bull Wololo V: Group Stage

[nimanoe]

Decider Matches, who goes through, who's out?

13.30 GMT - opening
1st series Nicov vs Barles
2nd series dogao vs slam
3rd series TaToH vs DauT
4th series Vinchester vs Villese
5th series Hera vs Capoch
6th series TheViper vs MbL
7th series JorDan vs Liereyy

 

[oozkan]

So if Viper loses 2-0 tomorrow, he might be out after winning against Hera and losing with 1 game in hand to Liereyy.

Swiss system is never a good idea.

 

[sechsstein]

So if Viper loses 2-0 tomorrow, he might be out after winning against Hera and losing with 1 game in hand to Liereyy.

Swiss system is never a good idea.

Swiss system is a good thing, but you need more round. (which they couldn't have because of the schedule)

 

[Dench]

So if Viper loses 2-0 tomorrow, he might be out after winning against Hera and losing with 1 game in hand to Liereyy.

Swiss system is never a good idea.

Highly unlikely though because his Buchholz tiebreak will be very high, since he played Hera and Liereyy.

 

[Min]

Decider Matches, who goes through, who's out?

13.30 GMT - opening
1st series Nicov vs Barles
2nd series dogao vs slam
3rd series Vinchester vs Villese
4th series Hera vs Capoch
5th series TheViper vs MbL
6th series TaToH vs DauT
7th series JorDan vs Liereyy

Are all seven games on the main channel tomorrow?

 

[archxeon]

Viper is already through.

So if Viper loses 2-0 tomorrow, he might be out after winning against Hera and losing with 1 game in hand to Liereyy.

Swiss system is never a good idea.

 

[melixc77]

the system is very bad, for example MBL has to decide against viper while slam decides against dogao, for MBL it was more easy to just let himself be defeated by slam today. for Daut it similar, has to decide against tatoh (number 6) after facing the Jordan (the first or two in the ranking) and capoch (currently number 5) while others who could let him out the playoff have playe "more accessible" games.

 

[nimanoe]

Are all seven games on the main channel tomorrow?

Yes

 

[b1gwalt]

I thought Daut was a goner on Tuesday afternoon, now... there's a chance. Only trouble is he's against Tatoh 11. This will be a very emotional series I think, very hyped.

 

[mgenie]

So if Viper loses 2-0 tomorrow, he might be out after winning against Hera and losing with 1 game in hand to Liereyy.

Swiss system is never a good idea.

Not possible. Viper is already in. Let me explain:
In your worst case, Viper is 2-2. Let's further constrain the worst case: all of his opponents lose, Hera, Dogao, and Liereyy. This would mean he finishes with 9 Buchholz points.
This means Jordan, Liereyy, MbL, and Capoch all qualify with 3-1 records or better.
Now the issue of TaToH-DauT: if TatoH wins, he is in. If not, they are both 2-2.

Let's first consider a TaToH win, as I think it's easier to go through.
We now have 5 players qualified before Viper.
Viper and Hera are now both 2-2.
Hera, with a loss to Capoch, and TheViper losing, ends up with 10 bp.
Villese is the strongest remaining possible 2-2, at a maximum of 9 bp. Let's make him win over Vinchester, then.
But wait! If Villese wins, Hera gets only 9bp, would be tied with TheViper. So that's one less player to worry about. Alternatively, if Vinchester wins, he only has 8 bp. Viper has 9, so Vinch is out.
Slam and Dogao, similarly, cannot pass TheViper in bp.
It's easy to see how a TaToH win guarantees TheViper advances to knockouts, with, at worst, the 7th seed.

Let's now consider a TaToH loss.
We now have only 4 players with better records than TheViper: Jordan, Liereyy, MbL, and Capoch.
With TaToH and Viper losses, Hera can, at best, tie Viper with 9 bp (this assumes a Vinch win). Viper won the head-to-head, so he is clearly over Hera.
TaToH can't get more than 8 bp in this scenario. 8 < 9
DauT is trickier here. Under our assumptions, a win would guarantee him 9 bp (since we assume Capoch and Jordan victories). Nicov winning would boost him to 10, where he makes it past a 9 bp Viper.
Our constraints cap both Villese and Vinch at 8 bp. No problems for the Viper.
Dogao and Slam are obviously not a threat to Viper's bp.
A TaToH loss actually guarantees Viper, at worst, the 6th seed in knockouts.

If Hera wins TheViper has 10 bp, so I'm not even going to consider it, I've spent enough time on this already and I think it should be trivially obvious that 10 buchholz points would make him a lock.

TL;DR Viper is already a lock for 7th seed or better, worst case.

 

[Spawn]

Viper is already through.

Well, not exactly, if we take the potential match ups tomorrow we can see that if dogao, hera, lierey all lose their could technically be a scenario were viper is only at 9 points which looking at the potential points you see their is lots of players that can reach that and he has mainly 2-1 wins so his game score not so good, that being said obviously these 3 causes a chain reaction to the other potential scores so would have to compute to see the effects but yeah maybe he could lose and be out.

Player	Matches	Pts
TheViper	2-1	9-12p*
Capoch	2-1	9-10p*
Hera	2-1	9-11p*
DauT	1-2	7-11p
MbL	2-1	7-10p*
Vinchester	1-2	7-9p
TaToH	2-1	6-9p*
Villese	1-2	5-9p
dogao	1-2	4-8p
slam	1-2	3-7p

*Player is already 2-1 so they in the case tiebreaker is needed you assume their opponent won thus their score is higher

 

[mgenie]

Well, not exactly, if we take the potential match ups tomorrow we can see that if dogao, hera, lierey all lose their could technically be a scenario were viper is only at 9 points which looking at the potential points you see their is lots of players that can reach that and he has mainly 2-1 wins so his game score not so good, that being said obviously these 3 causes a chain reaction to the other potential scores so would have to compute to see the effects but yeah maybe he could lose and be out.

Player	Matches	Pts
TheViper	2-1	9-12p*
Capoch	2-1	9-10p*
Hera	2-1	9-11p*
DauT	1-2	7-11p
MbL	2-1	7-10p*
Vinchester	1-2	7-9p
TaToH	2-1	6-9p*
Villese	1-2	5-9p
dogao	1-2	4-8p
slam	1-2	3-7p

*Player is already 2-1 so they in the case tiebreaker is needed you assume their opponent won thus their score is higher

I went through TheViper's possibilities exhaustively in the reply right above yours. He is in.

 

[Spawn]

Not possible. Viper is already in. Let me explain:
In your worst case, Viper is 2-2. Let's further constrain the worst case: all of his opponents lose, Hera, Dogao, and Liereyy. This would mean he finishes with 9 Buchholz points.
This means Jordan, Liereyy, MbL, and Capoch all qualify with 3-1 records or better.
Now the issue of TaToH-DauT: if TatoH wins, he is in. If not, they are both 2-2.

Let's first consider a TaToH win, as I think it's easier to go through.
We now have 5 players qualified before Viper.
Viper and Hera are now both 2-2.
Hera, with a loss to Capoch, and TheViper losing, ends up with 10 bp.
Villese is the strongest remaining possible 2-2, at a maximum of 9 bp. Let's make him win over Vinchester, then.
But wait! If Villese wins, Hera gets only 9bp, would be tied with TheViper. So that's one less player to worry about. Alternatively, if Vinchester wins, he only has 8 bp. Viper has 9, so Vinch is out.
Slam and Dogao, similarly, cannot pass TheViper in bp.
It's easy to see how a TaToH win guarantees TheViper advances to knockouts, with, at worst, the 7th seed.

Let's now consider a TaToH loss.
We now have only 4 players with better records than TheViper: Jordan, Liereyy, MbL, and Capoch.
With TaToH and Viper losses, Hera can, at best, tie Viper with 9 bp (this assumes a Vinch win). Viper won the head-to-head, so he is clearly over Hera.
TaToH can't get more than 8 bp in this scenario. 8 < 9
DauT is trickier here. Under our assumptions, a win would guarantee him 9 bp (since we assume Capoch and Jordan victories). Nicov winning would boost him to 10, where he makes it past a 9 bp Viper.
Our constraints cap both Villese and Vinch at 8 bp. No problems for the Viper.
Dogao and Slam are obviously not a threat to Viper's bp.
A TaToH loss actually guarantees Viper, at worst, the 6th seed in knockouts.

If Hera wins TheViper has 10 bp, so I'm not even going to consider it, I've spent enough time on this already and I think it should be trivially obvious that 10 buchholz points would make him a lock.

TL;DR Viper is already a lock for 7th seed or better, worst case.

And you do all the maths for the scenario in my post before I finish typing haha

 

[Spawn]

I went through TheViper's possibilities exhaustively in the reply right above yours. He is in.

Yes You did haha, I Love it, its actually really interesting because with all the match ups now we can actually further lock in players that make it or players that are already eliminated

 

[Wop]

So if Viper loses 2-0 tomorrow, he might be out after winning against Hera and losing with 1 game in hand to Liereyy.

Swiss system is never a good idea.

Viper is already through

 

[mgenie]

I made a separate thread that I can't find now (I'm pretty new to aoezone so maybe I violated a rule I didn't know about).

Basically, there could be some really bad tiebreaks, including ties for 8th place where candidates could have even series and map records, same BP, and no head-to-head. In these cases, is the unlisted (on liquidpedia) 5th tiebreak seeding? If so, that could lead to some pretty harsh controversy.

 

[nimanoe]

I made a separate thread that I can't find now (I'm pretty new to aoezone so maybe I violated a rule I didn't know about).

Basically, there could be some really bad tiebreaks, including ties for 8th place where candidates could have even series and map records, same BP, and no head-to-head. In these cases, is the unlisted (on liquidpedia) 5th tiebreak seeding? If so, that could lead to some pretty harsh controversy.

The automated bot didn't like your edits, but the thread should be visible again

 

[Spawn]

I made a separate thread that I can't find now (I'm pretty new to aoezone so maybe I violated a rule I didn't know about).

Basically, there could be some really bad tiebreaks, including ties for 8th place where candidates could have even series and map records, same BP, and no head-to-head. In these cases, is the unlisted (on liquidpedia) 5th tiebreak seeding? If so, that could lead to some pretty harsh controversy.

Are you saying their is a situation where rank 8 and 9th are tied, that would be interesting I haven't tried to simulate that situation. Looking at it my self its going to come down to MBL, Daut, Vinch, Tatoh, Vilese.

Dogao, Slam 100% out and Viper, Capoch, Hera All in

As for the rest it doesn't just depend on their games it depends on the others

 

[marco47]

the system is very bad, for example MBL has to decide against viper while slam decides against dogao, for MBL it was more easy to just let himself be defeated by slam today.

This is not true. If MBL loses to Viper tomorrow, he adds 3 points to his Bucholz score while Slam will only add 1 point to his if he beats Barles. As a matter of fact, MBL will finish ahead of Slam in the rankings no matter what happens tomorrow.

 

[marco47]

Dogao, Slam 100% out and Viper, Capoch, Hera All in

If Slam is 100% out (I haven't done the math), is there a scenario where Tatoh can throw the series to Daut and both qualify?

 

[amazing_knight]

The automated bot didn't like your edits

Damn these AIs.

First, they won't let me win campaigns and now they're on AoeZone restricting our Freedom of Speech.

 

[Spawn]

If Slam is 100% out (I haven't done the math), is there a scenario where Tatoh can throw the series to Daut and both qualify?

Yeah their is a situation where this happens, funny enough it requires their team mate slam to lose, but it also requires Villese to beat Vinchester , which funny enough means for Vilese to get in Daut must lose

 

[edu2008]

Hera could be out if lose 2:0 to Capoch.

 

[Venezuelan warlord]

What needs to happen for both tatoh and Daut to qualify ?

 

[thepitzaboy]

The production looks amazing for the event, congrats to redbull to pull off this amazing event.

I had a few requests:

1/ The post game interviews seems a bit off, the casters are running between interview to the pre-game talk with riley. Didnt we have Nelson dedicatedly for this?
2/ Its probably a good idea to do some special session with the players involved
e.g. How to get good at age: with comments from some players on their roadmap, how to improve Micro, Macro, Strategy decision, secret of drafting, common AOE mistakes they see
3/ Can players also participate in post game interviews as interviewer? this used to happen in NAC and was a fun segment
4/ Can the head-head stats between players be flashed before the match ups to give a sense of who has the edge, e.g. slam vs mbl I dont know how they measure up in tournaments

Anyways, this has been one heck of a tournament and I hope this is the beginning of a long journey with Redbull in the AOC scene..