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As I was hyped for the upcoming RBWL qualifiers, I decided to create an overview of the main contenders for the remaining spots at the RBWL LAN event based on some statistics and my perception of the recent results.
Below is the list that I came up with. Who are your favorites?
Marco “JorDan” Bloch
Nicolás “Nicov” Bruno
Huy “ACCM” Hoang
Morten “MbL” Beite Levernes
Arthur “Sitaux” Alauzen
Guilherme “dogao” Pippi
Miguel “miguel” Dornelles
Patricio “Capoch” del Olmo
Wang “Fat_Dragon” Long (aka vivi)
Biên “BacT” Ha
Richard “Barles”
Christopher “slam” Gregson
Helenês “F1Re” Romano Cândido
“Valas”
Viktor “classicpro” Vitoshko
Ashwin “The_Dragonstar” Kumar
When I made the initial list of names, I had a few more players in mind but later decided to narrow it down a bit. Additional candidates for qualification certainly include
Dark, BadBoy, SongSong and 
Daniel. Besides, TheMax, 
PROject_Belgium and saymyname deserve a mention but it doesn’t look like they will sign up, hence I left them out.
Data sources:
Below is the list that I came up with. Who are your favorites?
Marco “JorDan” Bloch|
| After his return in July 2020 the German #1 has closed in on the top of the world quicker than most people expected, reaching one S-tier final and three S-tier semifinals. Although the steep climb has slowed down since then, he has with no doubt established himself in the top 16 and is one of the top candidates to qualify for RBWL and have his 2nd appearance in the castle of Heidelberg after reaching the semifinal in RBW5!
Odds of qualification: 90% |
Nicolás “Nicov” BrunoThe Argentinian player has been in incredibly strong shape this year and managed to take out multiple top players in A-/B-tier tourneys. He sometimes seems to struggle mentally when facing top players in major events. Yet, he hasn't had any issues to qualify for Top 16 and his strong performance in TTL shows that he can be a threat to anyone even in the main stage. Nicov missing the RBWL main event would be a big upset.
Odds of qualification: 90% |
Huy “ACCM” HoangThe heavy grind of the past years - basically participating in every single tournament out there - definitely paid off for ACCM. For some time already he has established himself in the top 16 but he is definitely capable of aiming for more, as e.g. his RBW3 performance shows. Unless visa issues for Vietnamese players strike again, ACCM looks like a safe candidate to qualify.
Odds of qualification: 90% |
Morten “MbL” Beite LevernesThe former top 5 player is known for his survival instinct. Initially not a fan of the Empire Wars game mode, his semifinal performance in RBW5 showed that he has mastered this discipline in the meantime. Sometimes MbL struggles with a lack of preparation and discipline but as he is grinding the EW ladder this time, even this obstacle is likely to be taken, at least with regard to qualifying for the main event.
Odds of qualification: 90% |
Arthur “Sitaux” AlauzenThe French #1 and former TG specialist is one of the newest members of the top 16. Since his 1v1 breakthrough performance in KotD4 he hasn't missed the Ro16 in any major tournament (except for TTL, where he was not seeded high enough for Platinum League). Sitaux has not yet reached a top 12 result in RBW but still shows a clear upward trend and has very decent chances to qualify for the main event.
Odds of qualification: 70% |
Guilherme “dogao” PippiNot too long ago the Hidden Cup 3 semifinalist would have been a safe pick for the finals but his recent performance drop puts his participation in Heidelberg at risk. However, dogao's talent and potential remain undisputed. He is still a candidate for top 16 and it's clearly too early to write him off.
Odds of qualification: 50% |
Miguel “miguel” DornellesAfter some less successful years the "people's champ" seems to be back in shape and has solid arguments to be part of the top 16 again. Some doubts may be raised about his performance in Empire Wars settings as RBW2 is his only RBW main event participation to date. Since the last edition though the trend is clearly going upward for miguel so he'll certainly aim to qualify this time.
Odds of qualification: 40% |
Patricio “Capoch” del OlmoThe experienced Argentinian has a strong record in RBW tournaments, having his breakthrough performance in RBW2 and reaching top 8 again in RBW5. His aggressive playstyle clearly benefits from the Empire Wars setting. After focusing on AoE4 for some time with mediocre results in AoE2, he now seems to master the balancing act and looks at least as strong as before. All in all, he should have a good chance to qualify.
Odds of qualification: 40% |
Wang “Fat_Dragon” Long (aka vivi)The Chinese player formerly feared for his trushes dropped in performance after DE release but currently seems to be in decent shape. His apparent lack of discipline remains his biggest opponent though and with only a few games played on the EW ladder it is unclear whether he will sign up. If he does though, he'll certainly be a strong contender.
Odds of qualification: 30% |
Biên “BacT” HaOver the last years, BacT has lost his spot as Vietnamese #1 and undisputed top 16 player. However, he is still very active and occasionally shows very strong performances across all settings. As for ACCM, visa issues prevented him from attending the last LAN event he qualified for (NAC2). His main problem seems to be the lack of consistency but on a good weekend BacT must not be forgotten.
Odds of qualification: 30% |
Richard “Barles”The player formerly focused on Black Forest teamgames has established himself in the top 20 for some time and regularly enters the top 16 of major tournaments. He managed to qualify for RBW5 last minute. Despite finishing on the 14th and last spot he once more proved to be able to challenge the best of the best. Barles will be a serious contender for the qualification, although a lack of versatility with regard to maps could be an issue.
Odds of qualification: 30% |
Christopher “slam” GregsonThe calm Canadian has been notoriously known for choking in important situations. After qualifying for RBW5 this looked like a thing of the past but his recent results did not look too promising anymore. Yet slam is an experienced and well-rounded player and will certainly try to qualify for Heidelberg once more. Last year he put up a very solid performance with 2 wins in the Swiss stage and failed to qualify for the quarters only due to the Buchholz score.
Odds of qualification: 30% |
Helenês “F1Re” Romano CândidoWith a focus on coaching the "shirtless warrior" had become less active as a competitive player for some time. However, recent performances were quite consistent and remarkable. It has to be mentioned that the Brazilian failed to qualify for any RBW event since RBW1, which puts a question mark over his EW skills.
Odds of qualification: 20% |
“Valas”Valas is another former BF player who has turned into a well-rounded, competitive 1v1 and TG player. He managed to reach his first S-tier top 16 in RBW4, where he convincingly upset slam in the qualifier. With a clear focus on playing instead of talking, Valas has silently made his way to the top 20 with remarkable recent results, e.g. in Only Land Cup and as an uncontested group winner in TTL Gold League.
Odds of qualification: 20% |
Viktor “classicpro” Vitoshko| classicpro has been one of the rising stars of 2022. While he already upset multiple top players in the past, he managed to increase his consistency over the last months and is now a serious contender for top 16. Unfortunately, it seems unclear whether he would be able to leave the Ukraine in the current situation in case he qualifies for the main event.
Odds of qualification: 20% |
Ashwin “The_Dragonstar” KumarAnother rising star of 2022, the young Indian player has shocked the AoE2 scene with his convincing victory in World Rumble and got multiple other strong results this year. He has not yet made it into the top 16 of an RBW event but has clearly improved his gameplay since the last edition, hence the value of this information is unclear.
Odds of qualification: 10% |
When I made the initial list of names, I had a few more players in mind but later decided to narrow it down a bit. Additional candidates for qualification certainly include
Dark, BadBoy, SongSong and Daniel. Besides, TheMax, PROject_Belgium and saymyname deserve a mention but it doesn’t look like they will sign up, hence I left them out.Data sources:
- Pictures from liquipedia
- AoE Tournament Elo from aoe-elo.com*
- ATP Ranking*
- Highest RM Ladder Ratings*
- Highest EW Ladder Ratings: manually retrieved from aoe2.net*
- Conclusions and odds of qualification are my own subjective view
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