RBW5 - Players road to qualification

[PouletMayo1]

Hello aoezone,
There is 7 matches today, for a total of 2^7 = 128 possibilities of different outcome. I created a program that would analyse each outcome to see where players could finish once the qualification stage is over.
There is a limitation to my program : I don't consider map wins. I only take the number of victories and the bucholz score.
At the end of the day, 1 player will be 4-0, 3 or 4 will be 3-1, 4 or 6 will be 2-2, 3 or 4 will be 1-3 and 1 will be 0-4.
Every 4-0 will qualify, every 3-1 will qualify and 3 out of the 4 2-2 or 4 out of the 6 2-2 will qualify.

Liereyy and Jordan
They are both certain to qualify with either 4-0 or 3-1.

Hera
If he wins, he's in. But if he loses, he could be in a 3-way tie in only 1 scenario.

Viper
If he is whatever happens.

Capoch
He is in whatever happens.

Tatoh
If he wins, he's in. If he loses, it could be hard for Tatoh. If 2 of his 3 previous opponents wins, his chances are clearly higher. If both Tatoh and Hera wins, Tatoh has 75% chances of qualifying. If Hera wins and Dogao or Villese, he is pretty much in.

MBL
If he wins, he's in. If he loses, his chances are still pretty high. If Liereyy wins, he's pretty much in. It's also the case for Slam and Barles. If MBL loses, he needs a victory by one of his previous opponents.

Daut
He needs a win. Even if he wins, he still needs a victory from one of his previous opponents.

Vinch
He needs a win. If he wins, he is in about 75%.

Villese
If he wins, he is in about 75%

Dogao
If he wins, its a toss up.

Slam
Out

Nicov and Barles
They are out.
There can be 2-way ties at the 8th position. Its hapening in 35 out of the 128 scenarios. One thing to note is that if you have 2 victories, having 6 bucholz score pretty much certifies you the qualification. 7 is always in.
I figured people would be interested in seeing the data, so here it is : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bJ1_BtJUTHVyZCkuQBtYj34i1wT8MYOMGdwoP1yIAE8/edit?usp=sharing
Have a great day of RBW5

 

[nimanoe]

If he wins, he's in. If he loses, he is only out in 3 scenarios. If Hera, Liereyy, Villese, Tatoh and Dogao all win, he could be out.

I calculated this one and it doesn't seem to be correct :S

 

[Elvaenor]

I really llike analyses posts like this!

 

[wincher01]

Good job. It doesn't seem to complicated to take into account the next tie-breaker, any reason why you didn't do it?

 

[username_required]

Thanks for taking your time out for this analysis

 

[PouletMayo1]

I calculated this one and it doesn't seem to be correct :S

If Liereyy, Hera, Villese, Tatoh, Dogao and Barles win, both Capoch and Villese ends tied at 8th place with 2 wins and 6 bucholz. Capoch is 4-4 with the maps, Villese is 3-5. If Villese wins 2-0 and Capoch loses 0-2, Villese would up up in the matches. Now that Barles lost, this scenario is gone.

Another scenario is Lierey, Viper, Hera, Villese, Tatoh, Dogao and Nicov. That scenario would put Capoch, MBL and Dogao at 6 Buch. at 7th, 8th and 9th place. If Dogao wins 2-0, Capoch loses 0-2, Capoch could bt out. Extremely unlikely scenario indeed, but possible.

Good job. It doesn't seem to complicated to take into account the next tie-breaker, any reason why you didn't do it?

I created my file with a Python script. Programmatically, it was difficult to add another layer. Each match can end with 2-0,2-1,1-2 and 0-2 so you multiply by 4 the scenarios.

 

[nimanoe]

If Liereyy, Hera, Villese, Tatoh, Dogao and Barles win, both Capoch and Villese ends tied at 8th place with 2 wins and 6 bucholz

Capoch already has 5 buchholz, if he loses to hera, that would add 3 buchholz and that is assuming all of his opponents from the previous rounds don't get any points

 

[mgenie]

Hello aoezone,
There is 7 matches today, for a total of 2^7 = 128 possibilities of different outcome. I created a program that would analyse each outcome to see where players could finish once the qualification stage is over.
There is a limitation to my program : I don't consider map wins. I only take the number of victories and the bucholz score.
At the end of the day, 1 player will be 4-0, 3 or 4 will be 3-1, 4 or 6 will be 2-2, 3 or 4 will be 1-3 and 1 will be 0-4.
Every 4-0 will qualify, every 3-1 will qualify and 3 out of the 4 2-2 or 4 out of the 6 2-2 will qualify.

Liereyy and Jordan
They are both certain to qualify with either 4-0 or 3-1.

Hera
If he wins, he's in. But if he is out, there is 6 scenario out of 64 where he is out. If Capoch, MBL, Villese and Daut wins, Hera only gets in 2 out of the 8 scenario remaining. Unlikely scenario, but who knows

Viper
If he wins, he's in. If he loses, the lowest he can get if 8th.

Capoch
If he wins, he's in. If he loses, he is only out in 3 scenarios. If Hera, Liereyy, Villese, Tatoh and Dogao all win, he could be out.

Tatoh
If he wins, he's int. If he loses, it could be hard for Tatoh. If 2 of his 3 previous opponents wins, his chances are clearly higher. If both Tatoh and Hera wins, Tatoh has 75% chances of qualifying. If Hera wins and Dogao or Villese, he is pretty much in.

MBL
If he wins, he's in. If he loses, his chances are still pretty high. If Liereyy wins, he's pretty much in. It's also the case for Slam and Barles. If MBL loses, he needs a victory by one of his previous opponents.

Daut
He needs a win. Even if he wins, he still needs a victory from one of his previous opponents. To be honest, it's pretty unlikely. I see Nicov beating Barles, so there is a chance.

Vinch
He needs a win. If he wins, he is pretty much in. There is only 8 scenarios out of 64 where Vinch does not make the cut if he wins.

Villese
If he wins, he's out only in 10 scenarios out of 64.

Dogao
If he wins, its a toss up. He's in in 32 scenarios out of 64 if he wins.

Slam
There is only 4 scenarios out of 128 where Slam qualifies.

Nicov and Barles
They are out.
There can be 2-way ties at the 8th position. Its hapening in 54 out of the 128 scenarios. One thing to note is that if you have 2 victories, having 6 bucholz score pretty much certifies you the qualification. 7 is always in.
I figured people would be interested in seeing the data, so here it is : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bJ1_BtJUTHVyZCkuQBtYj34i1wT8MYOMGdwoP1yIAE8/edit?usp=sharing
Have a great day of RBW5

As others have pointed out, this analysis is incorrect.
3 problems:
Slam was already out last night. No scenarios for him to qualify.
Hera was already in last night.
Capoch was already in last night.

I'm having trouble interpreting your sheet. If you point out the specific scenarios, I can help you see where you went wrong.

 

[mgenie]

Capoch already has 5 buchholz, if he loses to hera, that would add 3 buchholz and that is assuming all of his opponents from the previous rounds don't get any points

This is where you most likely went wrong @PouletMayo1, it looks like you struggled to perform the correct computations for each player's loss.
For example, in one scenario where you have Hera at the 9 seed, you gave him 6 buchholz. This is mathmatically impossible, the lowest he could have is 7 with a win, 8 with a loss.

 

[mgenie]

I wrote a script that computes all the tie breakers correctly. Here are the actual possibilities, now updated for Nicov's win. Note there are 4096 outcomes because to compute map wins, each match has 4 possible outcomes, not 2. I didn't solve unsolvable ties, so those may be misrepresented here (e.g. 9 could mean tied for 7, 2 could mean tied for 2), but I double-checked all the important cases (for example, dogao can qualify outright though the majority of his 7 and 8 placings are actually unsolvable ties for 7 or 8).

Most notably, Viper, Hera, and Capoch are all locks. Slam cannot qualify (and nicov's win didn't change any of this, believe it or not). If you would like to challenge that, present me with the scenario and I'll help you figure it out.

Barles {14: 4096}
Capoch {6: 728, 7: 544, 5: 608, 4: 816, 3: 1056, 2: 64, 8: 280}
dogao {8: 192, 12: 1024, 7: 32, 10: 1024, 13: 1024, 9: 800}
DauT {10: 2048, 6: 704, 5: 640, 7: 640, 8: 64}
Hera {4: 608, 2: 256, 3: 1184, 6: 1152, 7: 736, 8: 32, 5: 128}
JorDan_AoE {1: 2048, 4: 320, 3: 320, 2: 1408}
Liereyy {3: 192, 2: 1856, 1: 2048}
MbL {9: 408, 8: 664, 7: 696, 5: 464, 4: 1392, 6: 232, 3: 240}
Nicov {13: 1536, 12: 2304, 11: 256}
slam {12: 512, 9: 1120, 13: 1536, 10: 928}
TaToH {5: 1584, 7: 424, 9: 600, 8: 800, 4: 448, 3: 80, 10: 96, 6: 64}
Villese {11: 2048, 6: 112, 8: 720, 9: 752, 7: 464}
Vinchester {7: 288, 8: 1344, 11: 1792, 9: 416, 12: 256}
TheViper {2: 512, 4: 512, 3: 1024, 6: 1104, 5: 672, 7: 272}

 

[PouletMayo1]

Capoch already has 5 buchholz, if he loses to hera, that would add 3 buchholz and that is assuming all of his opponents from the previous rounds don't get any points

You are right. I didnt take into account the buch for the opponent they will face in round 4. I edited my post to take this in consideration.

I edited my post.

 

[PouletMayo1]

I wrote a script that computes all the tie breakers correctly. Here are the actual possibilities, now updated for Nicov's win. Note there are 4096 outcomes because to compute map wins, each match has 4 possible outcomes, not 2. I didn't solve unsolvable ties, so those may be misrepresented here (e.g. 9 could mean tied for 7, 2 could mean tied for 2), but I double-checked all the important cases (for example, dogao can qualify outright though the majority of his 7 and 8 placings are actually unsolvable ties for 7 or 8).

Most notably, Viper, Hera, and Capoch are all locks. Slam cannot qualify (and nicov's win didn't change any of this, believe it or not). If you would like to challenge that, present me with the scenario and I'll help you figure it out.

Barles {14: 4096}
Capoch {6: 1417, 7: 792, 5: 665, 4: 352, 3: 588, 2: 48, 8: 234}
dogao {8: 576, 12: 864, 7: 216, 10: 768, 13: 160, 9: 1512}
DauT {10: 3072, 6: 565, 5: 204, 7: 246, 8: 9}
Hera {4: 1386, 2: 432, 3: 1254, 6: 858, 7: 130, 5: 36}
JorDan_AoE {1: 3072, 4: 540, 3: 216, 2: 268}
Liereyy {3: 435, 2: 2637, 1: 1024}
MbL {9: 855, 8: 1011, 7: 1026, 5: 448, 4: 561, 6: 173, 3: 22}
Nicov {13: 2376, 12: 1672, 11: 48}
slam {12: 1512, 9: 780, 13: 1560, 10: 244}
TaToH {5: 2622, 7: 426, 9: 231, 8: 319, 4: 450, 3: 27, 10: 12, 6: 9}
Villese {11: 3072, 6: 351, 8: 201, 7: 345, 9: 127}
Vinchester {7: 735, 8: 1746, 11: 976, 9: 591, 12: 48}
TheViper {2: 711, 4: 807, 3: 1554, 6: 723, 5: 121, 7: 180}

Nice job! I think its better than what I did.

 

[mgenie]

You are right. I didnt take into account the buch for the opponent they will face in round 4. I edited my post to take this in consideration.

I edited my post.

Which scenario do you believe Hera has a 3-way tie? The only ones I can find off the top of my head involve TaToH, whom he owns head-to-head with (which is used before map wins). And what scenario do you have where Slam is in? I cannot find that on your sheet.

 

[mgenie]

Nice job! I think its better than what I did.

I like yours, too. And the tiebreakers are really, really hard: there are 100s of cases where they don't even all resolve!

 

[archxeon]

I made this earlier where you can pick each winner to see who qualifies. Haven't applied tie breakers (if Buchholz is same). One, it required a lot more work it seemed, and second, I wasn't confident if it was correct.

RBW5

Predict Qualification Qualification?,JorDan vs Liereyy,TheViper vs MbL,Hera Vs Capoch,TaToH vs DauT,Vinch vs Villese,dogao vs slam,Nicov vs Barles,Wins,Bullochz Pick Winner --- >,Liereyy,TheViper,Hera,DauT,Villese,slam,Nicov <a href="https://liquipedia.net/ageofempires/JorDan_AoE">JorDan</a>,Q...

docs.google.com

 

[Eisbader]

JorDan_AoE {1: 3072, 4: 540, 3: 216, 2: 268}
Liereyy {3: 435, 2: 2637, 1: 1024}

Shouldn't both have 1:2048? The winner of their match is first no matter any other match.

 

[mgenie]

Shouldn't both have 1:2048? The winner of their match is first no matter any other match.

ty, edited (value vs reference bug...)

 

[PouletMayo1]

Now that Slam won, I think MBL is in whatever happens.
Also now Vinch is in if he wins.
Also if Tatoh loses, its pretty much a toss-up.

 

[mgenie]

Now that Slam won, I think MBL is in whatever happens.
Also now Vinch is in if he wins.
Also if Tatoh loses, its pretty much a toss-up.

MBL still needs any of Capoch, TaToH, Vinchester, or Liereyy to win.
If MBL loses and DauT wins, Villese wins, Hera wins, and Jordan wins, for example:
MBL has 8 buchholz points.
Villese has 8 buchholz points (because remember, DauT winning means TaToH loses).
DauT has 9 buchholz points (because Jordan won).
TaToH has 8 buchholz points.
Capoch has 10 buchholz points.

That would mean Jordan, Liereyy, Hera, Viper, Capoch, and Daut (6 players) are locked in.

It then comes down to map records for TaToH, Villese and MbL. There are multiple unsolvable 3-way ties in that scenario, but at least 8 where MbL is outright eliminated and TaToH and Villese take the last 2 spots.

 

[PouletMayo1]

MBL still needs any of Capoch, TaToH, Vinchester, or Liereyy to win.
If MBL loses and DauT wins, Villese wins, Hera wins, and Jordan wins, for example:
MBL has 8 buchholz points.
Villese has 8 buchholz points (because remember, DauT winning means TaToH loses).
DauT has 9 buchholz points (because Jordan won).
TaToH has 8 buchholz points.
Capoch has 10 buchholz points.

That would mean Jordan, Liereyy, Hera, Viper, Capoch, and Daut (6 players) are locked in.

It then comes down to map records for TaToH, Villese and MbL. There are multiple unsolvable 3-way ties in that scenario, but at least 8 where MbL is outright eliminated and TaToH and Villese take the last 2 spots.

If Jordan wins, MBL will be ahead of Dogao, Slam, Nicov, Barles, the loser of Villese/Vinch and Daut/Tatoh.

 

[mgenie]

If Jordan wins, MBL will be ahead of Dogao, Slam, Nicov, Barles, the loser of Villese/Vinch and Daut/Tatoh.

Correct. However, he needs to be ahead of the winners, not the losers of those games. Once again, crazy scenario.

 

[mgenie]

TaToH is in a really rough spot. A Vinchester win knocks him out, and Villese can pass him as well with a win if some other things go his way

 

[PouletMayo1]

If Liereyy, Hera and Villese all wins, Tatoh can get in. Otherwise its over for tati.

 

[marco47]

Hera and Liereyy both winning is likely, Tatoh needs to cheer for Villese now.

 

[EricDolphy]

Is daut in rn?
Can someone confirm?