Random civ

Dec 17, 2018
46
19
13
#1
How random is random civ?

I got the same civ multiple times in a row. Which is your current record for 'Most same civs in a row'?
I was Franks 4 times in a row. Pretty random, isnt it? Current streak is 2 times Celts. Can we beat the four in a row?! 11
 

United KingdomCicero

Well Known Pikeman
Jul 9, 2017
116
315
78
#19
Chance of getting the same civ twice in a row: 1/31
Chance of getting the same civ thrice in a row: (1/31)^2 = 1/961
Chance of getting the same civ four times in a row: (1/31)^3 = 1/29791

And now the more interesting stuff:
Frequency of getting the same civ twice in a row: log30/31(1/2) = ~21.14 games
Frequency of getting the same civ thrice in a row: log960/961(1/2) = ~666 games
Frequency of getting the same civ four times in a row: log29790/29791(1/2) = ~20649 games

Getting the same civ twice in a row should be expected pretty frequently. Thrice or four times is less likely, but is still to be expected on occasion.

Chance of getting the same civ twice in a row: 1/18
Chance of getting the same civ thrice in a row: (1/18)^2 = 1/324
Chance of getting the same civ four times in a row: (1/18)^3 = 1/5832

Frequency of getting the same civ twice in a row: log17/18(1/2) = ~12.13 games
Frequency of getting the same civ thrice in a row: log323/324(1/2) = ~224 games
Frequency of getting the same civ four times in a row: log5831/5832(1/2) = ~4043 games
 

Unknownasdfasdfasdf1

Active Member
Jul 13, 2017
145
216
43
#3
Yeah i have noticed it, not only me but the ppl i am watching tend to get the same civs twice in a row or even the same civ 4 times.
I remember viper play Spanish 5x in a row vs Lyx a few years ago with team random settings. I've watched and played lots of games, I really don't see any strange patterns lately. The probability should obviously decrease as there are more civs.

there is a pattern when you got one civ and then the game drops and saves it but after it when you start a new game with the same players your chances to get the same civ you had in the droped game are really really high
Confirmation bias. Probably happened to you a few times, doesn't mean there is any relation between saving a game and having the same civ the game after.

and lets remember that HD maps were all fixed to get deers close to the berries and some other tweaks,
do you have a source for this?

become the ugliest map and also it has to be with the added UP feature that added 99000000 more combinations, i wish that that feature was optional like others UP features and not the standard, ppl prefers to play customized arabia maps than the normal one.
please elaborate and explain how that changes map generations to be 'more ugly'. all the constraints and map parameters are all exactly the same, the key difference is that there are much more possible map generations.
 

FranceTriRem

Longswordman
Dec 13, 2015
331
1,224
108
22
France
#4
Yeah i have noticed it, not only me but the ppl i am watching tend to get the same civs twice in a row or even the same civ 4 times, there is a pattern when you got one civ and then the game drops and saves it but after it when you start a new game with the same players your chances to get the same civ you had in the droped game are really really high. I don't remember that behavior in aoc, at least not so often even with less civs.

Also there is something with the UP+wk that probably changes the scripts of the maps generated, the arabia from wk is a copy from the HD arabia and lets remember that HD maps were all fixed to get deers close to the berries and some other tweaks, but in wk the most played map -arabia- has become the ugliest map and also it has to be with the added UP feature that added 99000000 more combinations, i wish that that feature was optional like others UP features and not the standard, ppl prefers to play customized arabia maps than the normal one.
I'm used to nonsense from you but this one might be a new record :roflmao:
 

Germanyawfulunicorn

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#11
U cant create/code "true random", so there always can be some pattern in it (like time, ID, etc...) with abitrary complexity.

True random is only possible in quantum mechaniks (e.g. 50/50 beamsplitter with photons)
While that’s true I think this topic is clearly a case of not knowing what randomness looks like.
Ipseudorandom numbers are totally sufficient to draw one out of 31 a few times.
 
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#12
Well the chance to get 2 times in a row the same civ is 1/324, just to compare if you play pocker to get 2 Aces it’s 1/221

It can happen
Actually the chance to get the same civ two times in a row is 1/31.
The chance to get a particular civ two times in a row is 1/(31^2).
 

Austriateutonic_tanks

Two handed swordman
Mar 30, 2013
2,178
536
118
#6
Yeah i have noticed it, not only me but the ppl i am watching tend to get the same civs twice in a row or even the same civ 4 times, there is a pattern when you got one civ and then the game drops and saves it but after it when you start a new game with the same players your chances to get the same civ you had in the droped game are really really high. I don't remember that behavior in aoc, at least not so often even with less civs.

Also there is something with the UP+wk that probably changes the scripts of the maps generated, the arabia from wk is a copy from the HD arabia and lets remember that HD maps were all fixed to get deers close to the berries and some other tweaks, but in wk the most played map -arabia- has become the ugliest map and also it has to be with the added UP feature that added 99000000 more combinations, i wish that that feature was optional like others UP features and not the standard, ppl prefers to play customized arabia maps than the normal one.
Source(s): Dude trust me.
 

Germanyawfulunicorn

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#8
Lots of people uses VLC player in the world and that player when its playing random songs it repeats the same songs several times before it has played all the playlist, there is something wrong coded there, but as usual despite the facts there will be folks denying it telling you that you are crazy
Why would it not repeat songs? Do you expect a dice to not repeat numbers until you hit 1-6 once each ?
 
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ChileBowserlord

Known Member
Jul 18, 2018
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#9
U cant create/code "true random", so there always can be some pattern in it (like time, ID, etc...) with abitrary complexity.

True random is only possible in quantum mechaniks (e.g. 50/50 beamsplitter with photons)
 

United StatesAlphaAndOmega

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#14
I
How random is random civ?

I got the same civ multiple times in a row. Which is your current record for 'Most same civs in a row'?
I was Franks 4 times in a row. Pretty random, isnt it? Current streak is 2 times Celts. Can we beat the four in a row?! 11
I have gotten a civ twice in a row, three times in a row (I. E. AZ AZ, Maya Maya, turk turk). Annoying when you want to change things up!
 
Mar 10, 2018
31
47
23
#18
This thread is about getting two times one specific in a row. The OP started with „4 times Franks“ in a row

So to get 2 times the same specific (Franks) one is 1/18^2

I understand what you mean though.
If you have already one and then want to know how are the chances to get this one again in a new round it’s 1/18
Well, it could have been "4 times Goth" or any other civ for OP's purpose i would guess, he just got Franks.
So to me it makes more sense to look on chance of any civ in a row than a specivic one, as any civ 4 times in a row will be surprising.
 

Finlandbuhanisson

Longswordman
May 29, 2015
374
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#20
^Also, even though 4 in a row is quite rare, there are situations in aoe2 where people can rather easily practice a little bit of selective memory to increase the number of such occasions. For example, you play a 10 second game before the opponent drops. If you had the "wrong" civ, you might not count that game in, but if you had the civ in streak you of course are amazed and remember it. Or if in between two long bf games you play a quick scenario. You might or might not remember to include the civ of the scenario in the streak.
 

GermanyKing_Marv

Longswordman
May 27, 2016
573
617
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#17
You're still wrong though. The odds to get the same civ twice in a row are 1/18 in AoC. Unless you meant the odds of getting one specific civ twice in a row, which is not the same thing.
This thread is about getting two times one specific in a row. The OP started with „4 times Franks“ in a row

So to get 2 times the same specific (Franks) one is 1/18^2

I understand what you mean though.
If you have already one and then want to know how are the chances to get this one again in a new round it’s 1/18
 
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MexicoSouFire

Well Known Pikeman
Mar 11, 2011
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#2
Yeah i have noticed it, not only me but the ppl i am watching tend to get the same civs twice in a row or even the same civ 4 times, there is a pattern when you got one civ and then the game drops and saves it but after it when you start a new game with the same players your chances to get the same civ you had in the droped game are really really high. I don't remember that behavior in aoc, at least not so often even with less civs.

Also there is something with the UP+wk that probably changes the scripts of the maps generated, the arabia from wk is a copy from the HD arabia and lets remember that HD maps were all fixed to get deers close to the berries and some other tweaks, but in wk the most played map -arabia- has become the ugliest map and also it has to be with the added UP feature that added 99000000 more combinations, i wish that that feature was optional like others UP features and not the standard, ppl prefers to play customized arabia maps than the normal one.
 

MexicoSouFire

Well Known Pikeman
Mar 11, 2011
2,606
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#7
Uploading dropped games would take some time to gather at least 10 games to show you the pattern, even by doing so you would say it was merely random so i don't really care if you believe it or not, it just happens, the same with the maps being generated uglier than before you can just ask other players about his own experience with the map.

Lots of people uses VLC player in the world and that player when its playing random songs it repeats the same songs several times before it has played all the playlist, there is something wrong coded there, but as usual despite the facts there will be folks denying it telling you that you are crazy, same happens everywhere.

Sources: UP website about the addition of 990000000 map combination, second source official FE changelog, i will copy and paste it for you
Random Map Changes
General Changes
  • Deer variance removed, each player has the same amount of deer at more or less the same distance from TC
Now if you just want to see how crazy i am go and launch 10 games in vooblyUP+wk and then come back and tell me if you see the damn deers being spawned like it should be, gl.
 
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