Nili announces NC4 - $100K AoE4 LAN

[LowEloNobody]

It does. However, the trend is rather concerning. Without saying whether AoE2 or AoE4 is better, the numbers are rather clear at the moment. Here is a snapshot per end of December. I will update this in a few days to include the January numbers. If you are interested in more like this, you are welcome to check my attempt at a summary for AoE2 vs AoE4 after the firsts two months since AoE4's release. https://dondinardoni.com/aoe2-and-aoe4-friend-or-foe/
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I agree the trend is negative (as I have posited since day 1). I'm a big believer that viewer count and player count are highly correlated. So as player count continues to decline, we would expect viewer count to follow.

 

[Dusk2Dawn]

again triple or more viewers for aoe2 just on twitch alone; we know that t90 and maybe viper too stream on fb;

 

[Rorarimbo]

The thing about AoE4 viewership is it depends on Grubby, DeMuslim and Hera. They are bigger streamers than anyone on twitch for AoE2 and if any of them is online chances are AoE4 has more viewers (at the platform) unless there is AoE2 tournament like in this very moment. But if none of these guys is streaming chances are AoE4 has less viewers than AoE2. It really depends on individual streamers, I do not think significant conclusions may be drawn really. Also these three streamers do have their following before AoE4, they did not explode now or something. In Hera case he has less viewers since AoE4.

 

[Shakal]

Many people watch their favorite streamer rather than favorite game.
If Amouranth streamed AoE 2 or 4, she would have several thousand viewers (especially with webcam on 11) and it would say nothing about popularity or quality of either game.

 

[Dusk2Dawn]

Many people watch their favorite streamer rather than favorite game.
If Amouranth streamed AoE 2 or 4, she would have several thousand viewers (especially with webcam on 11) and it would say nothing about popularity or quality of either game.

But would it say something about gender?

 

[kshotts1]

The thing about AoE4 viewership is it depends on Grubby, DeMuslim and Hera. They are bigger streamers than anyone on twitch for AoE2 and if any of them is online chances are AoE4 has more viewers (at the platform) unless there is AoE2 tournament like in this very moment. But if none of these guys is streaming chances are AoE4 has less viewers than AoE2. It really depends on individual streamers, I do not think significant conclusions may be drawn really. Also these three streamers do have their following before AoE4, they did not explode now or something. In Hera case he has less viewers since AoE4.

I would say tournament viewership is a great way to gauge interest between both games. The most recent examples we have are 15k viewers for aoe4 Winter Championship finals last weekend and today aoe2 WWC Ro of 16 had 14k viewers. Will be interesting to see what WWC draws next weekend.

 

[sheeesh]

really nice to see a ''clean calendar'' for WWC final weekend so it can reach peak viewership. Credits to the AoE tournament coordinator for that, nothing is taken for granted after the overlapping RBW5 / AoEIV stress test.

 

[Dusk2Dawn]

It does. However, the trend is rather concerning. Without saying whether AoE2 or AoE4 is better, the numbers are rather clear at the moment. Here is a snapshot per end of December. I will update this in a few days to include the January numbers. If you are interested in more like this, you are welcome to check my attempt at a summary for AoE2 vs AoE4 after the firsts two months since AoE4's release. https://dondinardoni.com/aoe2-and-aoe4-friend-or-foe/
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waiting for the january charts

 

[Don Dinardoni]

waiting for the january charts

I updated them and you can see them at the link in the original post. The trend continues:

The player numbers on Steam are not too promising, either. I understand that more people will be playin on Gamepass but apart from the absolute numbers, the trend is most likely similar.

 

[Shakal]

I updated them and you can see them at the link in the original post. The trend continues:

The bad thing is that despite AoE4's decline in twitch viewers, AoE2 is still not recovering even with two S-tier tournaments happening in that time. It probably means that (as few people already said in this thread) AoE2's drop was caused by the departure of its biggest streamers rather than by AoE4.

 

[Dusk2Dawn]

If the chart jumps with 1k at least, it could be possible to have 2100 viewers in december and 2400 in january; either way, since more than a week ago i compare the viewer numbers every time i'm on twitch; gotta say 2 out of 3, aoe2 has more viewers;

 

[Don Dinardoni]

If the chart jumps with 1k at least, it could be possible to have 2100 viewers in december and 2400 in january; either way, since more than a week ago i compare the viewer numbers every time i'm on twitch; gotta say 2 out of 3, aoe2 has more viewers;

you can get the actual numbers by hovering over a bar in the chart. e.g., Jan 2022 the CCV for AoE2 were higher than in the previous month (11.1%) and lower than in Jan 2021 (-145%)

 

[-R-]

The bad thing is that despite AoE4's decline in twitch viewers, AoE2 is still not recovering even with two S-tier tournaments happening in that time. It probably means that (as few people already said in this thread) AoE2's drop was caused by the departure of its biggest streamers rather than by AoE4.

Well, it's a bit of both - Hera left AoE 2 and took his viewers with him (he's still consistently over 1k viewers), and Nili probably took some with him as well, even though his numbers dropped massively. Other streamers weren't as successful, though. Kasva quite literally murdered his streaming income in cold blood with the switch to AoE4.

 

[LowEloNobody]

you can get the actual numbers by hovering over a bar in the chart. e.g., Jan 2022 the CCV for AoE2 were higher than in the previous month (11.1%) and lower than in Jan 2021 (-145%)
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I think the difference in viewership can be (mostly) explained by 3 streamers:
T90: moved to FB, but is now hitting ~1K viewers
Viper: moved to FB, but is also hitting ~1k viewers on occasion
Hera: Moved to AoE4, and likely has a stream that is mixed "Hera" fans and "AoE4" fans

So if I had to guess, the total people watching AoE2 (or Hera) is roughly the same as it was a year ago. That is pretty promising given that the last year was one of the best for the game

 

[kw1k000000]

AoE4 multiplayer quickmatch activity

 

[Progeusz]

I am pretty sure he is accountable to MS for his job. second i repeat N4C is open streaming

I hope you get paid well for your time. Would be sad if you made all your posts for free considering how you show up every single time you sniff out a chance to defend aoe4 but instantly disappear when the narrative loses ground and can't properly admit to your immense bias.
N4C being open streaming doesn't mean **** in this particular context. (if anything, it helps the host more with how aoe2 community is because aoe2 streamers are good people who make sure to promote the host, best example was KotD4 where Dave used every chance to tell his viewers to support Memb, follow, subscribe, see his channel). Host typically gets the most viewers, partly due to viewers respect, partly due to exclusive content, partly due to having more promotion and more importantly, it is Nili who participates in all negotiations with the sponsors, distributes the prize pools while also receiving money for being the organizer. There was no tournament above 20k in first months of AoE 4 when hype was at its peak (meanwhile aoe had a bunch of bigger tournaments in 2021 before aoe4 came out) and game was played by more than 50k people instead of current 12k, but now, when the game is firmly below AoE 2 DE, it suddenly gets quintuple prize pool, 100k, never seein in aoe2, in the tournament hosted by general tournament coordinator of entire AoE franchise. When big chunk of pro players, even the ones who honestly greatly enjoyed AoE 4, abandoned the game because it is a boring, unsalvageable wreck that gets stale in meta and receives pretty much no support from dev team. When the tournament organizer is one of very few people with aoe2 background who still stick with aoe4. Sus.
I want to give Nili benefit of doubt, because of all he did for aoe2 across the years but fact is, state of affairs doesn't look particularly good.

I find it sad that Nili who has done so much for this game and community becomes immediately a public enemy number one when he dares to like the other game.

Easy up on boot licking and history revisionism. Nobody would bat an eye at Nili if he simply liked AoE 4. People are disappointed with Nili because he strongly supports AoE 4 despite all the issues game has while also being openly disrespectful toward AoE 2 and AoE 2 players. Remember the comment about him not willing to cast a match between BacT and Vivi in KotD 4? There was no need to voice his opinion this way, Viper was present in the same conversation and didn't utter anything of the sort. It was Nili's personal, conscious decision to **** on AoE 2 community - he is mostly getting his just desserts in this forum. Some people go overboard with the hate, yes, but it isn't baseless like you're falsely, perhaps maliciously? trying to claim.

 

[Zeev]

Easy up on boot licking and history revisionism. Nobody would bat an eye at Nili if he simply liked AoE 4. People are disappointed with Nili because he strongly supports AoE 4 despite all the issues game has while also being openly disrespectful toward AoE 2 and AoE 2 players. Remember the comment about him not willing to cast a match between BacT and Vivi in KotD 4? There was no need to voice his opinion this way, Viper was present in the same conversation and didn't utter anything of the sort. It was Nili's personal, conscious decision to **** on AoE 2 community - he is mostly getting his just desserts in this forum. Some people go overboard with the hate, yes, but it isn't baseless like you're falsely, perhaps maliciously? trying to claim.

Again so much hate. If people don't agree with you, they must be paid by MS or Nili or someone. Fact number one is: AOE4 still has more players. More players play it on Gamepass than AOE2. If Steam numbers are still close, then AOE4 has more players. Nili showed this stat during his what happened in january video. Fact number two: AOE4 still has more views on Twitch.

And I agree with Nili. KOTD4 was one of the most boring tournaments to watch. Something like 80 % of the games were drush into archery range. Someone did some stats on reddit on this. Though, I have never liked Arabia.

 

[Snizl]

Host typically gets the most viewers,

I don't think I have seen a single event that was streamed by t90 on twitch where he did not have the most viewers. No matter who the host was. Be it memb, lidakor or anyone else t90 usually had 4x as many viewers if not more.

 

[Tendo]

Host typically gets the most viewers, partly due to viewers respect, partly due to exclusive content, partly due to having more promotion

I would disagree here, sadly.
This changed to the better, but I remember TwoPools1 with Lidakor the Host having ~30 Viewers during the Grand Finals while T90 had 2,4k+ on average, Nili 600+, Memb 300+.
We also have seen KotD's and BoA's with T90 having way more Viewers then Memb.
In general it's though for smaller Hosts to get anywhere near the Numbers of the bigger streamers, even if it's theyre own tournament.

Of course it's still benefitting the Host aswell if the Tournament he organized get's a lot of Viewers on other channels which is why I think it's a great thing for evryone if N4C is open streaming, especially for Viewers who prefer other languages.

but now, when the game is firmly below AoE 2 DE, it suddenly gets quintuple prize pool, 100k, never seein in aoe2, in the tournament hosted by general tournament coordinator of entire AoE franchise.

Not sure what you mean by that, RBW5 had the same prizepool (which was sponsored by MS).

Also something we have to think about in terms of timing is that obv. N4C was planned long ago, so things like "right before N4C is announced GL Players leave AoE4 and AoE4 get's less and less popular" are well...
I mean it's not like Nili waking up and thinking "ok aoe4 is going down, let's spontaneously announce a 100k Tournament".

And I agree with Nili. KOTD4 was one of the most boring tournaments to watch. Something like 80 % of the games were drush into archery range. Someone did some stats on reddit on this. Though, I have never liked Arabia.

Don't put random words in Nilis mouth.
He said he doesn't want to cast the early stages of the Tournament which makes sense because he doesn't focus on casting and because he enjoys AoE4 more atm.
He never said KotD was/is boring, the only problem was that he made a specific example of a matchup which he wouldn't enjoy casting which is just disrespectful.

 

[Rorarimbo]

Again so much hate. If people don't agree with you, they must be paid by MS or Nili or someone. Fact number one is: AOE4 still has more players. More players play it on Gamepass than AOE2. If Steam numbers are still close, then AOE4 has more players. Nili showed this stat during his what happened in january video. Fact number two: AOE4 still has more views on Twitch.

And I agree with Nili. KOTD4 was one of the most boring tournaments to watch. Something like 80 % of the games were drush into archery range. Someone did some stats on reddit on this. Though, I have never liked Arabia.

As someone who has been tracking numbers for the two games since AoE4 is out, I was wondering how Nili found this graph that showed the games still fairly close on Steam. I assumed it's a bit older graph he found/pulled not saying he did it on purpose. It was around last weekend the two games were more or less on par regardless of the platform that is AoE2 DE and AoE4 as AoE2 is more than just DE. I am pretty sure the scales have tipped already.

Speaking about Nili, the only thing I found to be strange in that interview with Massmorra is he was genuinely looking interested to see what game would have more players 1 year from now when to me this is not really a question anymore... Talking in that direction in the last few days on Steam AoE4 is closer to AoE3 DE than it is to AoE2 DE. Yesterday for example daily tops showed 22500 for AoE2DE, 12845 for AoE4 and 4239 for AoE3 DE. Yes it is 3 times the number of players but the difference is smaller. With the trend AoE4 is having it may soon become a relevant question what game is going to do better in the long run AoE3 or AoE4?

Anyway talking for AoE2 DE and AoE4 strictly, now we know 35% of AoE4 players are on MS Store with 7% or 8% of DE2 players. You can adjust this percentage with the numbers for Steam on top and see what game is actually on top.

 

[Chainsaw]

I don't know how much this translates into viewership or whatnot, but there is interestingly a big difference between follower numbers.

 

[MaSmOrRa]

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I don't know how much this translates into viewership or whatnot, but there is interestingly a big difference between follower numbers.

Pretty sure thats mostly because the AoE2 category on twitch is like 10 years old and AoE4 is 3 months old.

 

[Tendo]

Speaking about Nili, the only thing I found to be strange in that interview with Massmorra is he was genuinely looking interested to see what game would have more players 1 year from now when to me this is not really a question anymore...

I guess that's partly because he obviously has more informations then we have, although looking at how disappointed he was by the Patch maybe he is too much relying on others in that regard.

But imagine things like a huge season Pass for AoE4 with introducing severall small Civ-DLC's, big Tournaments with external Sponsors.
Maybe he is just hoping for huge Patches and a big Sale.

I doubt Nili is that delusional that he thinks AoE4 in the current state is able to keep up with AoE2, so either there has to be big things coming, or he is just holding the flag for the sinking ship till his Tournament finishes.

 

[Don Dinardoni]

Anyway talking for AoE2 DE and AoE4 strictly, now we know 35% of AoE4 players are on MS Store with 7% or 8% of DE2 players.

That's interesting. How do we know that? Can you share a source, please? Thank you.

 

[siestes]

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I don't know how much this translates into viewership or whatnot, but there is interestingly a big difference between follower numbers.

Follower numbers on any social media platform is usually more telling of longevity than popularity