There is basically no simulation of the same units where having 22% more doesnt decisively overpower the trader's force. What the non trader has remaining in units is instantly gg and the defender has no way to come back from it
i just did a scenario with 50 paladin + 3 SO + 4 bombard cannons attacking a castle behind two layers of stone wall, trying to simulate a defending position in black forest. The defender had 40 paladin, 2 SO and 2 bombard cannons and won every single time by a pretty huge amount. I used resonancebot, so there was no advantage in micro (both microed poorly).
Note: i did not include reinforcements (trader would have a higher resource income at that time and a shorter way to reinforce)
You never showed any evidence that the resource surplus of the trader is enough to push a defender who has a higher resource income at that time. Everybody knows that the trader has a small window of more resources but you need to show that a allin would work