Of course AoE2 is mostly a skill-based game, especially at the top level: strategic choices, game awareness, speed, apm, micro, macro, decision making, build order etc. are all extremely important.
However, there are of course still elements of luck and randomness:
- map generation (safe resources etc.)
- scouting pattern vs. map (there are better scouting patterns, but the success of how you do it can depend on the random map generation)
- civ picking/ matchup (if both blind pick) - of course you can mindgame and strategize here, but there is still an unpredictable element
- strategy choice vs opponent's strategy (same here; if e.g. strategies have a rock-paper-scissors relationship, even "the best choice" based on your available info can be better or worse depending on what your opponent does)
- same can go for unit composition, where you attack on the map, where you coincidentally look while you are being raided etc.
So how important do you think the element of luck/randomness is in deciding games? Is it on average more like 10-20 % per game or less at the top level? Or even higher? How likely is it, that two players A and B both play essentially on the same level (or even player B is slightly better in the games in terms of skill) and player A still wins e.g. 5-0?
However, there are of course still elements of luck and randomness:
- map generation (safe resources etc.)
- scouting pattern vs. map (there are better scouting patterns, but the success of how you do it can depend on the random map generation)
- civ picking/ matchup (if both blind pick) - of course you can mindgame and strategize here, but there is still an unpredictable element
- strategy choice vs opponent's strategy (same here; if e.g. strategies have a rock-paper-scissors relationship, even "the best choice" based on your available info can be better or worse depending on what your opponent does)
- same can go for unit composition, where you attack on the map, where you coincidentally look while you are being raided etc.
So how important do you think the element of luck/randomness is in deciding games? Is it on average more like 10-20 % per game or less at the top level? Or even higher? How likely is it, that two players A and B both play essentially on the same level (or even player B is slightly better in the games in terms of skill) and player A still wins e.g. 5-0?