Hidden Cup 3 London Corona Party

[goldenstone]

Ah yes the medical experts from the world renowned institute of... aoezone

Yea and people claim im a toxic troll. Look at yourself and your comments. What a pathetic and sad post. So we basically cannot be right because we are "AoEzOnE mEdIcAl ExPeRtS"

 

[Elvaenor]

Yea and people claim im a toxic troll. Look at yourself and your comments. What a pathetic and sad post. So we basically cannot be right because we are "AoEzOnE mEdIcAl ExPeRtS"

While I may even agree with some of your points (though I'd still go to the meetup if I could), I don't think a lot of people are going to take you seriously if you don't get of your high horse.

 

[tresu]

I am writing to you from Bergamo, Italy, at the heart of the coronavirus crisis. The news media in the US has not captured the severity of what is happening here. I am writing this post because each of you, today, not the government, not the school district, not the mayor, each individual citizen has the chance, today to take actions that will deter the Italian situation from becoming your own country’s reality. The only way to stop this virus is to limit contagion. And the only way to limit contagion is for millions of people to change their behavior today.

If you are in Europe or the US you are weeks away from where we are today in Italy.

I can hear you now. “It’s just a flu. It only affects old people with preconditions”

There are 2 reasons why Coronavirus has brought Italy to it’s knees. First it is a flu is devastating when people get really sick they need weeks of ICU – and, second, because of how fast and effectively it spreads. There is 2 week incubation period and many who have it never show symptoms.

When Prime Minister Conte announced last night that the entire country, 60 million people, would go on lock down, the line that struck me most was “there is no more time.” Because to be clear, this national lock down, is a hail mary. What he means is that if the numbers of contagion do not start to go down, the system, Italy, will collapse.

Why? Today the ICUs in Lombardy are at capacity – more than capacity. They have begun to put ICU units in the hallways. If the numbers do not go down, the growth rate of contagion tells us that there will be thousands of people who in a matter of a week? two weeks? who will need care. What will happen when there are 100, or a 1000 people who need the hospital and only a few ICU places left?

On Monday a doctor wrote in the paper that they have begun to have to decide who lives and who dies when the patients show up in the emergency room, like what is done in war. This will only get worse.

There are a finite number of drs, nurses, medical staff and they are getting the virus. They have also been working non-stop, non-stop for days and days. What happens when the drs, nurses and medical staff are simply not able to care for the patients, when they are not there?

And finally for those who say that this is just something that happens to old people, starting yesterday the hospitals are reporting that younger and younger patients – 40, 45, 18, are coming in for treatment.

You have a chance to make a difference and stop the spread in your country. Push for the entire office to work at home today, cancel birthday parties, and other gatherings, stay home as much as you can. If you have a fever, any fever, stay home. Push for school closures, now. Anything you can do to stop the spread, because it is spreading in your communities – there is a two week incubation period – and if you do these things now you can buy your medical system time.

And for those who say it is not possible to close the schools, and do all these other things, locking down Italy was beyond anyone’s imagination a week ago.

Soon you will not have a choice, so do what you can now.

Please share.
Christina Higgins

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[tresu]

I am not Cristina Higgins, btw. Just sharing her story.

 

[SuperskinnyBLS]

But is Cristina a medical professional?

 

[theHand]

Good question. Still much better to listen to medical professionals than Facebook stories.

 

[Memeluke]

If I die I hope somebody here will take on my legacy

 

[theHand]

That's unlikely, but rest in peace anyway.

As for the other party-poopers, people are "most contagious when they are most symptomatic", in which case they just won't come, as has been stated over and over.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) - Transmission

COVID-19 is most often spread from person to person among close contacts.

www.cdc.gov

As has also been repeatedly stated, we will be making a call nearer the time. It's not like we can't cancel on the morning of the event if we want to.

So everyone who's overly worried can go back to relaxing in their Hazmat suits and airtight fallout shelters.

 

[RichNixon]

That's unlikely, but rest in peace anyway.

As for the other party-poopers, people are "most contagious when they are most symptomatic", in which case they just won't come, as has been stated over and over.

As has also been repeatedly stated, we will be making a call nearer the time. It's not like we can't cancel on the morning of the event if we want to.

So everyone who's overly worried can go back to relaxing in their Hazmat suits and airtight fallout shelters.

I think it's unfair and not very mature to act like people here talking about the virus are "party-poopers" or paranoid lunatics in "Hazmat suits and airtight fallout shelters". We're concerned about a serious illness that has the potential to cause a lot of harm.

Like I said earlier, we're not out to ruin fun or intentionally sabotage the event... we're just hoping everyone stays safe.

 

[theHand]

I think it's unfair and not very mature to act like people here talking about the virus are "party-poopers" or paranoid lunatics in "Hazmat suits and airtight fallout shelters". We're concerned about a serious illness that has the potential to cause a lot of harm.

Like I said earlier, we're not out to ruin fun or intentionally sabotage the event... we're just hoping everyone stays safe.

I think it's unfair to assume we are moronic imbeciles who will show up to this event coughing and sneezing into each others' open mouths. We're concerned about mass hysteria that is already causing widespread harm.

Like I said earlier, we're not out to call you a bunch of bubble-wrapped troglodytes... we're just hoping everyone stays rational.

Coronavirus: Stop the hysteria

Just over a year ago, long before the term coronavirus had entered our collective vocabularies, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported that in just a few short weeks of the 2018-19 winter season, the flu had sickened between 6 million and 7 million Americans.

www.washingtontimes.com

 

[Memeluke]

 

[theHand]

 

[RichNixon]

Like I said earlier, we're not out to call you a bunch of bubble-wrapped troglodytes... we're just hoping everyone stays rational.

Coronavirus: Stop the hysteria

Just over a year ago, long before the term coronavirus had entered our collective vocabularies, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported that in just a few short weeks of the 2018-19 winter season, the flu had sickened between 6 million and 7 million Americans.

www.washingtontimes.com

That was a very quick turn-around from "only listen to information given by medical professionals" to "read this article from an American radio show host who recommends you pray the corona away".

Anyway, I have tried to be polite and respectful in this thread, and I have said everything I think that needed to be said. I'll repeat that my only concern was for people's safety, and that I didn't mean to personally offend you or ruin the fun of anyone. You've made it clear that you won't change your mind, so I won't bother you about it again, and I hope the meet-up goes well.

 

[Michaerbse]

I think it's unfair to assume we are moronic imbeciles who will show up to this event coughing and sneezing into each others' open mouths. We're concerned about mass hysteria that is already causing widespread harm.

The difference is that he never wrote something like this while you actually wrote what he was talking about.

 

[tresu]

'Healthcare on brink of collapsing': Doctors share stories from inside the Italy coronavirus quarantine

I'm just back from Italy and "enjoying" my first day of self-isolation. Getting a real picture of how bad the situation is, especially in Lombardy and the north, has been really difficult for TV news because movement is so restricted, access to the overwhelmed hospitals impossible and the...

www.itv.com

In Italy now, there is not enough intensive care bed to provide ventilatory support. Doctors have to decide who they should admit to Intensive care, who they should let go to die. That is why delaying viral spread can help a bit, to give time for someone to be discharged from intensive care and the next patient can have it.

I don't know about Cristina, but I am a medical practitioner. Take care.

 

[MaSmOrRa]

Any idea why is the situation in Italy so much worse than in other places?

I mean Germany right now has a roughly 0.1% death rate from codvid19 (3 deaths in 2000 cases).
What went wrong in Italy?

 

[Poxo]

Any idea why is the situation in Italy so much worse than in other places?

I mean Germany right now has a roughly 0.1% death rate from codvid19 (3 deaths in 2000 cases).
What went wrong in Italy?

- Is just a flu dude.
- Number of beds / 1000 habitants -> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_OECD_countries_by_hospital_beds
- Time of incubation inside the country. (Spain and France will be close to Italy numbers in 7~10 days)

 

[tresu]

It's not just the total number infected, but the timing of infection. Limited healthcare facility can only cope with so much cases. Italy had a huge jump in number of new cases not the same as Germany. They could not treat everyone. Not every country can build new hospitals in days like China.

 

[Jarvin]

Any idea why is the situation in Italy so much worse than in other places?

I mean Germany right now has a roughly 0.1% death rate from codvid19 (3 deaths in 2000 cases).
What went wrong in Italy?

In the case of epidemics the differences between various similarly developed countries rarely come from one of them "doing something wrong", but mostly from something happening that likely put one country ahead or behind "on schedule". The fact that Italy is an extremely popular tourist destination, combined with it having some of the highest proportion of older people in Europe as a part of the whole population, Italy was just a perfect candidate for the crisis to start early there.

Once a crisis sparks, part of the reason for why numbers keep growing so quickly isn't just that there are new virus cases, but also that simply more resources are being used on testing for new virus cases. The main reason why the numbers of infected people in other countries in Europe and rest of the world might seem so low compared to China/South Korea/Italy is that the other countries simply do really bad job at actually detecting them.

Since the spread of the virus is relatively similar no matter the country, it is likely that a situation similar to Italy's(could also be slightly better or much worse) will develop in other parts of Europe and the world too. The old rule of thumb on predicting the growth of coronavirus is that the number of new cases per day can increase tenfoldly each 19 days, which would put countries like Germany, UK or US about 2-4 weeks behind Italy.


Note that I'm not a medical professional or practitioner, just someone who, due to my town having turned into semi-coronavirus mode recently, had enough time to try to learn what the situation is.

 

[MaSmOrRa]

In the case of epidemics the differences between various similarly developed countries rarely come from one of them "doing something wrong", but mostly from something happening that likely put one country ahead or behind "on schedule". The fact that Italy is an extremely popular tourist destination, combined with it having some of the highest proportion of older people in Europe as a part of the whole population, Italy was just a perfect candidate for the crisis to start early there.

Once a crisis sparks, part of the reason for why numbers keep growing so quickly isn't just that there are new virus cases, but also that simply more resources are being used on testing for new virus cases. The main reason why the numbers of infected people in other countries in Europe and rest of the world might seem so low compared to China/South Korea/Italy is that the other countries simply do really bad job at actually detecting them.

Since the spread of the virus is relatively similar no matter the country, it is likely that a situation similar to Italy's(could also be slightly better or much worse) will develop in other parts of Europe and the world too. The old rule of thumb on predicting the growth of coronavirus is that the number of new cases per day can increase tenfoldly each 19 days, which would put countries like Germany, UK or US about 2-4 weeks behind Italy.


Note that I'm not a medical professional or practitioner, just someone who, due to my town having turned into semi-coronavirus mode recently, had enough time to try to learn what the situation is.

But still, South Korea and Italy present 2 very different scenarios.

Italy has like a 5% death rate while South Korea has like 0.7%.

 

[theHand]

You've made it clear that you won't change your mind, so I won't bother you about it again, and I hope the meet-up goes well.

Nice try, but in my first post I literally wrote I would change my mind, if the expert advice called for it. So perhaps you're not being snide, but you're certainly being disingenuous.

The point is only my own due diligence will change my mind, not any random posts from the drama zone. So if that's what you meant, top marks.

You didn't seem to like the scientific advice from the government, so I thought a bible-basher might have got through to you. As your advice is equivalent to that journalist's: just personal opinion.

The difference is that he never wrote something like this while you actually wrote what he was talking about.

Further to my first paragraph in this reply, apart from having my words ignored, it is patronising in the extreme to be preached at by people assuming we're having a party come what may. If they can't be bothered to read and understand the whole context, I will certainly make use of hyperbole for effect. Whether something is said or implied is moot.

I don't know about Cristina, but I am a medical practitioner. Take care.

Good luck to you. Sounds like your back is against the wall, if you're in Italy? I'll amend my requirement to "medical professionals in the UK".

 

[Jarvin]

But still, South Korea and Italy present 2 very different scenarios.

Italy has like a 5% death rate while South Korea has like 0.7%.

There are a few ways to interpret this

First of all, Italy has about 50% larger share of population aged above 65(~~15 vs 23%). I guess the most important factor, hovewer, is that South Korean government was simply extremely aggressive in containing spread of the virus, being able to test over 10 thousand people a day(compare it to most western countries which sometimes don't even manage to reach 10k in total), combined with huge effort to make sure that people who feel sick can get tested and go into self-quarantine if need be at minimal cost(compare it to, say, US, where at some point you had to pay a few hundreds bucks just to get tested..)

tl;dr: since South Korea tests practically everyone, including young and healthy, the fatality rate is going to be low, compared to countries like Italy, which due to delayed and imperfect (still better than rest of Europe) handling of the virus nowadays are forced to test mostly those who are already sick.(and show symptoms)

Last thing worth mentioning is that it's rarely possible to make straight comparisons between numbers from different countries, as they usually don't mean the same thing. Various method of testings, various definitions of who a "recovered" patients is and so on makes most of the statistics be actually kind of unrelated with each other

 

[TriRem]

tl;dr: since South Korea tests practically everyone, including young and healthy, the fatality rate is going to be low, compared to countries like Italy, which due to delayed and imperfect (still better than rest of Europe) handling of the virus nowadays are forced to test mostly those who are already sick.(and show symptoms)

For more numbers :

South Korea is testing 5 times as many people as Italy. This will automatically increase the detection of healthy carriers and drop the mortality rate.

In truth it's not that South Korea has a low death rate, it's most other countries that have an artificially high death rate, because testing is mostly conducted on already sick people.

Italy probably has a mortality rate similar to South Korea, maybe a bit higher because of older population. But it's the number of cases that is under evaluated here.

 

[Tarsiz]

In low number of fatalities it can also just be "bad luck" as well (although Italy has sadly reached a point where it's not low anymore). Like if you take Washington state in the US, they had 100 cases and 20 deaths very early on, but it turned out the virus showed at a center for elderly care and 19 out of the 20 first deaths were older people from that center.

When it reaches the thousands or tens of thousands of cases however it cannot be imputed to chance alone though. Korea has done extremely well considering Seoul is such a huge city with packed public transportation (hence you would think, perfect vectors for massive dissemination of the virus), and I wish Western countries were inspired by their example...

 

[amazing_knight]

I can't believe some people are advocating a meet-up in current circumstances. Just because you're not likely to get affected, doesn't mean it won't affect you in the long term. No "non-essential" gatherings should be permitted in current circumstances.

This is literally one of those examples where people may die because of our actions.

Read this and act Now.