HC4: The ultimate guessing guide.

[DaisyChain]

I'd argue Jacqueline is possibly Barles.

Villese took the sides on slopes, Jacqueline and Barles didn't.
Villese globally banned mayans against Laaaaan.
I think there are as many reasons why Jacqueline isn't Villese as there are reasons she is, or more.

But I guess we can agree those 2 are most likely top16 guys, and certainly not in top6.

The draft totally does not look Barles to me, and the way to play Mayans neither. I don't think Barles would only pick 1 archer civ when he usually had 3 in qualifiers, and switch out of archers almost instantly.

 

[DaisyChain]

My final guesses are definitely Jacqueline = Nicov and Warwolf = ACCM. I'm fairly sold out on both. I have a handful of small hints for Nicov (the Bulgarian trush, the focus on CA civs in draft, the confident micro but not always successful, the lack of hand cart, the very low idle TC) and various suspicions for ACCM (box formation, draft, map draft, level of play), but I focused less on him once I knew he'd win.

Also those 2 players have had very different levels over the set, and ACCM and Nicov are both inconsistent.

If that's the case, sad that Nicov collapsed, gg to ACCM for that 3-1 win.

 

[Brlr716]

The draft is completely non-Jordan. Jordan's worst map is probably Cross and Warwolf first picked it. Jordan almost always picks Hideout, would likely pick Islands, would likely pick prepared new maps like Bypass. A player going Cross and Gold Rush is a player who plays a lot of ladder and likes Arabia-like map, not a tournament player who likes to prepare and strategize.

Make sense but Im not sure if you say Jordan is a tournament player because hes not been playing lot of S-tier tournaments, but he plays a lot ranked games.

 

[Degaussed]

Jacqueline banned Islands, right? That seems to rule out a few. I'm not sure if Nicov would ban Islands.

 

[DaisyChain]

Jordan has a tournament mind even if he just got back to the top. He likes to prepare strategies and to theorycraft, similar to a player like TatoH for instance. While other players like MbL like to go with the flow and perform much better on ladder than in tournaments.

I don't think banning Islands is unfair if you don't know who you face. If you're an average water player, you might be afraid of a top-tier one, or just simply don't want to play the map without knowing if you're vs the type of player to macro and play water or the kind of player to land. That does not rule out Nicov for me, he's not a top-tier water player even if he isn't bad.


I feel like I'm already near 100% confidence our next set is MbL dogao. The drafts match perfectly and the lame from someone with perfect English.

 

[SuperskinnyBLS]

Jacq played good arabia and titanic everywhere else = Vivi

EDIT : Admiral paused in min 1 ^^^^^^^^^ we know who that is

EDIT 2 : We found MBL as well KEK

 

[Degaussed]

Jacq played good arabia and titanic everywhere else = Vivi

no Spanish pick tho = not Vivi

 

[DaisyChain]

That MbL dogao set is hilarious.

MbL is self explanatory (Mongols on Arabia, laming with 0 second of idle scout while fluent in English, housed, skirms, top-tier on Arabia).
dogao is Islands first pick, High Tides (heavily water) second pick, and Chinese first pick. That makes a lot of hints. Now I add the walling with buildings and very little amount of palissades which is very typical of dogao too.

 

[Akos04]

Master of the Templar: MBL - Housed, laming, masterclass blocking, he said that he really loves Mongol M@A, also his M@A build order is unique: He has 3 on wood, then he adds 2 more after the second boar.

 

[HongeyKong]

Does anyone know the best play to go for speculation/discussion? Is there a discord? Aoe2 reddit?

Jacqueline has solid micro and quick walling but a bit slacking macro and unit control/decision making. But well prepared strats. I'd say it's a Top 5-8 player? Feeling Vinch or Villese vibes. The vils Warwolf lost on Cross seems way too lackluster for one of the Top 10 players. Maybe Vivi? ACCM or Bact?

He researched bowsaw super late in G1 arabia, even if he aimed for early pressure that was still too late. In G3 cup, his first stable next to his TC blocked two farm space. I dont think top 8 players would make these mistakes. Also in G4 slopes he should be winning in castle when mongols didnt fully utilize the hunt bonus.

For Warwolf, in G2, when Jaqs two scouts went in his base, his reaction was super slow. In G4, he had bad lumberjack micro and late horse collar. Also he noticed Jaqs North-east TC super lately. So I think hes also from the lower half of players.

 

[Brlr716]

is it possible that Yi is Viper?/or Yo.

 

[DaisyChain]

I have 0 vibes for both: the map draft, the gameplay, the civ draft. dogao, Vinchester or DauT are my 3 potential picks so far, there are a few things bothering me for every one of them. I want to see more to know.

I'm 100% sure for MbL however, way too many things.

 

[Freezing_Point]

Has Daut ever picked colors for a 1v1 tournament? Both of these guys picked a color, not sure I see it.

 

[marco47]

Warwolf definitely looked like ACCM, the ram + mango push, the few farms, the sloppiness and yet the ability to come out victorious from chaotic situations.

 

[SuperskinnyBLS]

So far Admiral reminds me of Joadn ;D

 

[Degaussed]

Master could be MBL, but if it is then that Arabia game was MBL on a bad day.

 

[Brlr716]

has to be jordan vs mbl

 

[SuperskinnyBLS]

Cyan actually too stronk to be Joadn. The Lord has blessed us with his performance.

 

[Freezing_Point]

That trickle of longbows at the end is so reminiscent of the Slopes game Jordan played vs. Max in the qualifiers. If so, then he's really come to play here.

 

[QuEnDi_kelar]

I am pretty sure we have Jordan vs mbl here.

 

[Memeluke]

it was TheViper vs Mbl

 

[marco47]

Purple gave up too easily in game 1 and game 4, didn't really look like MBL there.

 

[Ovenka]

Actually it be MbL because of early give ups, he could be upset he didnt win although he stole a pig and it could just escalate in game 4.

 

[Freezing_Point]

Also, if Admiral is Jordan, he stole Max's color and is going to wear it through the tournament like Heracles and the pelt of the Nemean Lion.

 

[Kurti26]

I don't think the second game can be 2 players from Europe they complained about the lag with the UK server...