HC4: The ultimate guessing guide.

[RogganWololo]

Reserved spot for DauT

Daut: Download the rec, go to the POV of the player you think is daut. Check scroll speed in view lock mode -> confirm or deny that it is daut.

 

[DaisyChain]

Daut: Download the rec, go to the POV of the player you think is daut. Check scroll speed in view lock mode -> confirm or deny that it is daut.

I also intentionally refuse to download recs and check things like language or viewlock. I try to keep the viewer experience because that's how I enjoy guessing. So none of that will be displayed, even if it's obviously the easiest way to guess who's who.

To me this honestly feels like cheating and removes all the fun, even if everyone is free to do that if they want.

Anyway, I added BacT and Barles. I'm definitely not satisfied with these two. I don't know enough about Barles, and BacT is a player that always annoyed me as a viewer because I often feel like he does not do what he should to win and does not play to his strengths. I'm completely open to insights from people who can give me informations on both.

 

[Freezing_Point]

I believe BacT's last really big 1v1 achievement was beating Tatoh to win the ECL Middle East stage back in 2018. You can watch that on EscapeAOE's YouTube page if you haven't already.

In any case, the random brackets make it hard for me to justify giving predictions for how far each player should go. I think it'd be a bit more expedient to judge how many opponents a given player has favorable matchups against, winnable matchups against, and significantly unfavorable matchups against. For instance, I'd favor Villese against all the other qualified players except possibly ACCM or Vinchester. Those I'd rate as winnable matchups.

Against qualified players, I think he has a winnable match against Tatoh, but not really any of the other seven. On other settings I'd say he has a winnable or even favorable matchup against Dogao as well, but Dogao seems to overperform in Hidden Cup compared to other events. I suspect because there's so many water maps, but regardless, I think Dogao is too strong here, as are Viper, Yo, Liereyy and the rest.

 

[Qualdrion]

To me this honestly feels like cheating and removes all the fun, even if everyone is free to do that if they want.

Anyway, I added BacT and Barles. I'm definitely not satisfied with these two. I don't know enough about Barles, and BacT is a player that always annoyed me as a viewer because I often feel like he does not do what he should to win and does not play to his strengths. I'm completely open to insights from people who can give me informations on both.

From watching his stream a couple times, Barles has a tendency to queue up a lot of farms in his mill instead of using autofarms, so if a lot of wood suddenly goes missing without anything being constructed, it could be Barles.

 

[DaisyChain]

I believe BacT's last really big 1v1 achievement was beating Tatoh to win the ECL Middle East stage back in 2018. You can watch that on EscapeAOE's YouTube page if you haven't already.

In any case, the random brackets make it hard for me to justify giving predictions for how far each player should go. I think it'd be a bit more expedient to judge how many opponents a given player has favorable matchups against, winnable matchups against, and significantly unfavorable matchups against. For instance, I'd favor Villese against all the other qualified players except possibly ACCM or Vinchester. Those I'd rate as winnable matchups.

Against qualified players, I think he has a winnable match against Tatoh, but not really any of the other seven. On other settings I'd say he has a winnable or even favorable matchup against Dogao as well, but Dogao seems to overperform in Hidden Cup compared to other events. I suspect because there's so many water maps, but regardless, I think Dogao is too strong here, as are Viper, Yo, Liereyy and the rest.

The game was honestly so different in 2018. Anything pre-DE is something I don't want to use too much because there has been so many meta changes, balance patches, QoL improvements and a general rise in level.

For the expected result, I agree, I should probably edit that and make it more of a power ranking or a tier-list. The idea behind my head is still that if a player wins their first set then is smashed 3-0 in quarters, he is a Ro16 player even if he reached Ro8, while a player than gives a lot of issues in first round to a player who then dominates others might be a top player. But I could rephrase it. That's also something that's very subjective.

 

[BlotchedyDooDah]

To me this honestly feels like cheating and removes all the fun, even if everyone is free to do that if they want.

Anyway, I added BacT and Barles. I'm definitely not satisfied with these two. I don't know enough about Barles, and BacT is a player that always annoyed me as a viewer because I often feel like he does not do what he should to win and does not play to his strengths. I'm completely open to insights from people who can give me informations on both.

Do you object to watching the recorded games in general, or just to looking at scroll speed/language etc.? I would imagine you can pick things up about scouting, timings etc. from watching them which may not be clear from streams.

 

[DaisyChain]

Personally, I don't intend to download recs to guess. I just want to do my guesses sunday night, having watched (hopefully) every game live on stream with T90's POV (which means we'll miss some Dark Age perks). This is a question of drawing a line, because someone spending an infinite amount of time watching the replays should have 100% guesses. Also you cannot close your eyes to the language if you download a game, and to me that kills all the fun to suddenly see that it is in X language instead of English.
But if people enjoy downloading recs and using them, of course that's fair and can be a way to enjoy it. I'd also say you have a lot of time on your hands if in 4 days you can watch 15 series AND POVs.

 

[huntskiki]

Top 8 players Villese has beat in tournaments recently:

Tatoh, Daut, Viper.

Players Villese has lost to in tournaments recently:

Yo, Hera, Lierry, Mbl.

He's in the mix for a top 8 spot, maybe even higher depending on how you weight the different games.

People will say "the settings the settings!!!" but when you're beating players of that calibre in tournaments it still counts for something. Those players are considered the best players because they win irrespective of the settings. Really surprising to see the doubt coming from so many people.

 

[DaisyChain]

Top 8 players Villese has beat in tournaments recently:

Tatoh, Daut, Viper.

Players Villese has lost to in tournaments recently:

Yo, Hera, Lierry, Mbl.

He's in the mix for a top 8 spot, maybe even higher depending on how you weight the different games.

People will say "the settings the settings!!!" but when you're beating players of that calibre in tournaments it still counts for something. Those players are considered the best players because they win irrespective of the settings. Really surprising to see the doubt coming from so many people.

I knew that one was controversial. I think many would consider him top 8 coming into the tournament but I don't. I honestly would have said he was in contention for top 8 before the qualifiers started, but I found his performances against Classicpro and Laaaan below that. Classicpro and Laaaan played well, but Villese also lacked decisiveness and did not impress me with his strats in the maps including water which is a huge part of HC. The level still seems extremely close anyway and it's random seeding, so pretty much everyone can actually reach the semis with a good draw, a few good strats and a small detail going their way in a close game. But I have more faith in other players from qualifier. Not that this is the most important factor anyway.

Unrelated note: I finished reviewing all the games from the qualifiers and a few extra games from the qualified players in various DE tournaments. I edit my posts and I'll try to post the 8 invited players before tomorrow 14 GMT. It should be a lot easier as their perks are more known.

 

[Ass_Kickerwa]

Thanks for putting in all the effort @DaisyChain !

 

[DaisyChain]

I added the four players defeated in quarters. I'm not watching entire series as I write this so I might forget something important, even if I backed my memory with some researches and a few stats.

 

[XDDXOXO]

Still think you have to add staggered formation as an indictor for Jordan. I only see him using that formation when he attacks with knights that often and consistent.

 

[Ovenka]

I would add to Jordan he might lame a lot as we could see in German cup where he lamed his opponents to gg 11. He didnt do that in qualifiers too much, maybe he wanted to play more safe, but in main event he has nothing to lose especially when he can just jump into Liery/Viper/Yo... in first round and try to take advantage from laming.
He seems so nice but his laming skill is huge 11

 

[Shakal]

He can thrive in chaos and has very good micro of mangonels

I think Mbl's mangonel micro is often ignored by most people, but it's actually really sick - I would say comparable or maybe even better than those of known "micro nerds" like Lierrey

 

[DaisyChain]

I trust you on the staggered formation, although I've seen many players do it for encirclements vs archers.

The settings of German Cup were very different: laming was A LOT easier on the maps, some of them were a pure lamefest like Alpine Pass and the version of Monocle was also extremely easy to lame. Here the boars are back, this is a huge commitment. The settings are too different, I'll trust what I saw during the qualifiers.

MbL could be the best Arena clown of the world if he comitted to it. He used to be a BF expert so he knows his BO and boom, he masters monks and mangonels, he's super strong in post-imp, and he made a song about it. A shame he refuses the inner clown.

 

[DaisyChain]

And I added everyone, although I don't necessarily have the sufficient amount of data. We've seen these players in EW settings, in KotD to have Arabia data, on their streams, but HC will be different. It's hard to know what strategy some of them have prepared or if they had a complete change of style behind the scenes. I'm certain some of them might. There are obviously the prepared strategies for some of the new maps (really curious to see what TatoH will do for instance).
I also have some bold predictions. I discuss that for every player, but I have two main theories:
- Viper used to play safe and relatively methodically because he was confident he would not lose if he did not throw: with his recent losses, he might have reconsidered this playstyle and he's perfectly capable of doing all-in strategies.
- Liereyy and Hera have all it takes to be a superb water player, especially with the return of Galleys on Islands. I see no reason why players with superior micro, multitasking and perfect build orders wouldn't perform there and they may very well have used these last weeks to practice water together.

 

[JFK]

Jacqueline of Hainaut said "gl hf" in the beginning of the first game.
It has to be JorDan, right?

 

[DaisyChain]

Oh I missed that. Definitely not Jordan then, he always says "enjoy" and never "gl hf". I don't think he'd impersonate and type something unusual.

After one game and the draft, my very informed guesses are Yo vs ACCM. But this might completely evolve

The amount of deer push from Warwolf bothers me. I did not expect anyone to push that much.

 

[Sigismund]

Jacqueline is Villese and Warwolf is Barles.

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BBUgp9kqgQg

Villese played Mayans game on Arabia identical to game 1 (Wheelbarrow timing, eagles/crossbows, fwd siege) and same goes for Cross game with Huns. Also his draft matches with his draft patterns from qualifiers.

 

[emarz4697]

TheViper

It's hard not to place him #1 going into Hidden Cup 4, especially when we remember he won his last 7 games in Hidden Cup 3. He has the experience, he shines on hybrid maps, he likes preparations, he is top 3 in micro, in macro, in preparation, and probably top 1 in game understanding. BUT he has a lot of issues in big tournaments recently. I still think he'd win, but as I said, I wouldn't be surprised if Liereyy wins it, or DauT, or even Hera. I would have been surprised if anyone else won it last year.

He should prefer hybrid maps, new maps and Islands. I don't see him picking Slopes for instance, when so many players thrive on this type of map.

He can adopt multiple styles, but is rarely all-in in tournaments. He likes to take it slow, to build a small lead and to snowball it with a superior macro and with a perfect control of the map to deny any comeback opportunity to his opponent. Notably, he tends to play safe castles in tournaments to secure his base.

However, he can switch his style if he thinks this is the best approach. The slower style is something he used to do when he was clearly better than the competition, he might have a new approach this time because he feels threatened. I'm curious to see what he will bring. He is theoretically a top-tier lamer and a top-tier towerrusher for instance, even if he does not seem to enjoy these styles.

He uses every page in the AoE book. He's not the only one (I mentioned that for Vinchester and Nicov), but his ability to adapt to the situation and to make the unusual transition or decision that just makes sense is usually unparalleled and allows him to often comeback.

His unit control might be below Liereyy's, but he's still super strong in micro. He's definitely less flashy than some, but he has an excellent useful APM.

He NEVER pushes deer. He often collects it long distance around the time he goes to feudal.

He has a very unique way of using his sixth villager. He tasks it to the second sheep, placed on the carcass of the first sheep. This stacks the two carcasses and reduces idle villager time by a few seconds when the 5 other villagers move from the first sheep to the second. I think he's the only one doing it that exact way, although someone mentioned the same for Villese.

He likes to disguise himself. I'd be surprised if he picks Yellow. Last year he tried to impersonate DauT, Vivi or TatoH. He may be less confident this time. However, when he's ahead, he can't resist adding some entertainement. The choice of green for Saladin and the War Elephants of last year were such a Viper move it was obvious it was him. Dave loves to make fun of viewers who said they were certain Saladin was Viper because Viper himself said he was trying to impersonate people: that's exactly why we were sure this was Viper. He's the only guy who would try to impersonate others, thus revealing who he is.

Just finished reading all your guides, thanks for going to such detail. Would just like to add that ive noticed from watching theviper that he is almost always conscious of the relics and never ignores or forgets them (not syre how much that helps but should be something)

 

[oakaoe]

Does anyone know the best play to go for speculation/discussion? Is there a discord? Aoe2 reddit?

Jacqueline has solid micro and quick walling but a bit slacking macro and unit control/decision making. But well prepared strats. I'd say it's a Top 5-8 player? Feeling Vinch or Villese vibes. The vils Warwolf lost on Cross seems way too lackluster for one of the Top 10 players. Maybe Vivi? ACCM or Bact?

 

[DaisyChain]

Jacqueline is Villese and Warwolf is Barles.

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BBUgp9kqgQg

Villese played Mayans game on Arabia identical to game 1 (Wheelbarrow timing, eagles/crossbows, fwd siege) and same goes for Cross game with Huns. Also his draft matches with his draft patterns from qualifiers.

I'm 100% sure this isn't Barles. Barles would have picked archer civs and walled on Cross, I'm fairly sure. Both is too much. My bet for ACCM = Warwolf seems fairly solid: box formation abuse in G1 (using it with 10 units on one instance), inconsistent, picking meta civs and land maps. The 3-1 victory round 1 is also a possibility.

Jacqueline-Villese is someone I would have to look into. My thought was Yo because of the double meso pick 1 and 2 and the early eagle switch on one TC, adding a towerrush strat just in case (first pick Cup and Bulgarians pick obviously planned to go together to trush, even if T90 was surprised). The player annoys me because he used TC to weaken his first boar, but not the next 3 we saw. I had thoughts of Nicov too, with the 2 CA civs picked and lost with, as in the qualifiers, but I find that he does not manage to boom behind his pressure. It might be Nicov on a bad day panicking and feeling like he has to pressure and not playing the way he did in qualifiers. The resigns were a bit too early imo, but on the other hand a bit too much idle TC. I did not expect Villese playing this way but I compare the Arabia games.

Edit: Tatars on Slopes and Bulgarian strat does not feel Villese to me, that's my issue. But I agree other things match.

Edit: Jacqueline on 1/3 the idle TC time while losing, sold on Nicov. But then still no hand cart at 1 hour. Double sold.

 

[Brlr716]

Warwolf looks like Jordan to me I don't have any analysis though.

 

[DaisyChain]

Warwolf looks like Jordan to me I don't have any analysis though.

The draft is completely non-Jordan. Jordan's worst map is probably Cross and Warwolf first picked it. Jordan almost always picks Hideout, would likely pick Islands, would likely pick prepared new maps like Bypass. A player going Cross and Gold Rush is a player who plays a lot of ladder and likes Arabia-like map, not a tournament player who likes to prepare and strategize.

 

[sacroima]

Jacqueline is Villese and Warwolf is Barles.

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BBUgp9kqgQg

Villese played Mayans game on Arabia identical to game 1 (Wheelbarrow timing, eagles/crossbows, fwd siege) and same goes for Cross game with Huns. Also his draft matches with his draft patterns from qualifiers.

I'd argue Jacqueline is possibly Barles.

Villese took the sides on slopes, Jacqueline and Barles didn't.
Villese globally banned mayans against Laaaaan.
I think there are as many reasons why Jacqueline isn't Villese as there are reasons she is, or more.

But I guess we can agree those 2 are most likely top16 guys, and certainly not in top6.