Experts Tournament ELO

Germanymungo__

Active Member
Dec 13, 2018
15
33
28
aoe-elo.com
Voobly
mungo_
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Ladder
RM - 1v1
Rating
2606
Wins
1599
Losses
1131
Streak
-1
#1
Hey guys!

The first version of aoe-elo.com is online. We already have 50+ tournaments and 2700+ games in the database.

What it is

It's basically a Elo ranking (like Voobly) of all players of major tournaments, based only on tournament games. Motivation:
  • A meaningful and up-to-date ranking of pro players
  • A database of all major tournaments and all games
  • Graphs and Stats! For example Elo development over a player's whole career.
Using only tournament games means:
  • No choice of opponents, like on Voobly
  • No smurfing, no noob bashing
  • Only important games (tournament games are not rated on Voobly!)
  • No aliases or second accounts
Current Progress

We are currently working on:
  • More data (thanks to pumukel & uberrushung!)
  • Including showmatches
  • Better mobile integration
  • More informations on games and tournaments
  • Better explanation of the algorithm
  • API for fetching data
Your Suggestions
  • Weighting tournaments & stages
    The problem with this is that introduces a subjective bias to the ranking. Who decides which tournament is important?
    Also, weighting stage is difficult. If we weight a finale more than a semi-finale, the losing player of the finale could be punished for even reaching the finale, because he might lose more points than he would have by losing the semi-finale. To give the winner more points, we have to take them away from the loser, this is the principle of Elo.
    Elo is really only about the statistically expected result. Sometimes this can be misleading.
    Example: If the Elo is just right for two players Adam and Berta, it should not change much after a series. If Adam has a higher Elo than Berta, the win probability could be for example 66% for Adam. If adam now wins the series with 2:1 (66% of games for A., 33% games for Berta), the Elo change would be: (win, +4), (win, +4), (lose, -8) = 0
    So it does not change, meaning that it was a correct estimate for the skill difference.
  • Team Game Elo
    We are thinking about how to do this. Some people suggested to implement something like in Tennis or other sports. The problem is the high amount of games needed for the ranking to be meaningful. These games all have to be manually inserted, as for example Challonge Brackets have no information of the exact players that played the games.
  • ...
    (I will put further suggestions here)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Original Post:

One of the most asked questions is probably "who are the top 10 players atm". The voobly ELO is good in general, but contains double accounts, is very fluctuating and for experts is not really precise enough (viper is not #1 for example).

So I wanted to write a website for the ELO only from tournament games (which are unrated in voobly). I am not certain where I take the data from (maybe automatically from this forum or idk). The script for the ELO calculation I could write.

Would you in general be interested in such a ranking? And what features would you like? I thought about something like:
  • List of about 50 relevant players (only games among these are relevant)
  • Time-sorted list of all recent tounament games
  • Separated top ELO list for RM 1v1/ TG / DM
  • Interface for manually adding tournament games
  • ...?
 
Last edited:

Finlandbuhanisson

Longswordman
May 29, 2015
345
874
108
#4
DM? How many DM tournaments are there, even. Other than that, sounds good and something that I, too, always wished someone made in a way that people would really care about. I think one additional thing that might be interesting to incorporate could be total prize money won. For TG, this obviously might not make as much sense, but for 1v1 the way I envision the data layout could be like:

player name ; series won ; series lost ; games won - games lost ; series win-% ; games win-% ; tournament wins ; tournament 2nd places ; tournaments played ; money won ; (maybe average money won per tournament) ; tournament rating ; (maybe a word, or a "title" describing the player, either a classification only based on his current tournament rating, or a historical title that, once won, cant be taken away, e.g. a bit chess-like: "world champion" - "super grand master" - "grand master" - "expert player" - "solid performer")

with ability to sort the players based on any variable the user wants.

For ELO calculation, I think you should at least consider making the ratings "start" somewhere other than 1600 (e.g. 2000) because the amount of players and games is relatively low and it might not appeal to some people's esthetic sense if Viper was rated 1725 and daut 1432, or vice versa. Of course, this is only a matter of some very vague idea of how certain numbers are psychologically perceived and doesnt affect the actual mathematics, but anyway, something to consider.
 
Nov 20, 2017
65
246
38
#5
Would you in general be interested in such a ranking? And what features would you like?
Yes, I would be :smile:

As of now, most places only have a tally of the number of tournaments won by players. But a properly done rating can give us more insights on who've been the most consistent players in tourneys.

Hoping you can take into account the who lost to who in the ELO algorithm. For instance, Jordan lost to TheViper in KotD1 Round2, but I am hoping he still gets more points for taking 1 game from Viper than some others, specially considering the fact that Viper did not lose any other game in the entire tournament till the Finals.

I am also hoping that all tournaments are considered but assigned different weightage depending on the average ELO of the players who participated. So, KotD can be given a higher weightage than, say, NAC or LoTH (Legacy of the Huns). But, all should get counted.
 

Netherlandsnimanoe

Knight
Bronze Supporter
Jan 15, 2014
2,193
1,562
138
23
#6
I like the idea, and a feature I would suggest is to give more weight to the later rounds than to the earlier rounds
 

Aland Islandskw1k000000

Well Known Pikeman
Feb 18, 2015
995
464
78
Voobly
kw1k
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RM - Team Games
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84
Losses
74
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1
#9
Great initiaive. For this to be used seriously,

  • We need a tournament weighing similar to ATP 500, 1000, slam etc to have results in perspective.
  • Whether the game was a knock out or some sort of round robin, double elimination, Swiss system etc. The most is at stake when its a knock out.
  • Weighing for winning a set of BO5 3-0 vs 3-2
  • Weghing for game/set stage. A Final is more pressure/presitigious than a quarter final. Similarly round robin group stage is far less at stake than a winner take all final.
 

NetherlandsiViktorius

Longswordman
May 9, 2014
987
883
108
The Netherlands
#10
3 times in the elo graph for TheViper I see he loses elo after a won match.
- KotD1 final, wins 4-5 vs Liereyy, loses 5 elo
- KO phase ECL, wins 1-2 vs ACCM, loses 2 elo
- QF LotH2, wins 2-1 vs Whoop, loses 5 elo

How does that exactly work?

I checked some others as well and it happens to them as well.
 

Germanydodageka

Longswordman
Feb 13, 2018
710
1,117
108
#11
3 times in the elo graph for TheViper I see he loses elo after a won match.
- KotD1 final, wins 4-5 vs Liereyy, loses 5 elo
- KO phase ECL, wins 1-2 vs ACCM, loses 2 elo
- QF LotH2, wins 2-1 vs Whoop, loses 5 elo

How does that exactly work?

I checked some others as well and it happens to them as well.
If you win 5 games and loose 4, than your Elo goes down if it projected you to win more than that.

@kw1k000000 @nimanoe if this is meant to be an Elo, you can’t rate or weigh tournaments differently. Elo is purely about the statistical probability of winning vs another player, independent of the situation
 
Likes: JoshuaR

AustriaClemensor

Halberdier
Jun 9, 2014
1,169
407
98
24
Vienna
#12
3 times in the elo graph for TheViper I see he loses elo after a won match.
- KotD1 final, wins 4-5 vs Liereyy, loses 5 elo
- KO phase ECL, wins 1-2 vs ACCM, loses 2 elo
- QF LotH2, wins 2-1 vs Whoop, loses 5 elo

How does that exactly work?

I checked some others as well and it happens to them as well.
This is a guess, but since Viper supposedly has far more elo than his opponents he will lose rating if he doesnt win a certain amount of games in a series, given that every game counts and affects the elo rating. so for example Viper gains like 20 points winning 2 games vs accm while accm gets 22 or smth because he is way lower rated. Similar to rating system on voobly/HD.
 

Aland Islandskw1k000000

Well Known Pikeman
Feb 18, 2015
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#13
If you win 5 games and loose 4, than your Elo goes down if it projected you to win more than that.

@kw1k000000 @nimanoe if this is meant to be an Elo, you can’t rate or weigh tournaments differently. Elo is purely about the statistical probability of winning vs another player, independent of the situation
ok let me rephrase. if this rating is to be used in any meaningful way for tournament seeding then in the current form its useless.
 

Finlandbuhanisson

Longswordman
May 29, 2015
345
874
108
#14
I think the assumption that all games are equally important as long as they are tournament games is fine. It just needs lot more data to round off the effects of those few meaningless games that are bound to happen every now and then. When you reach higher elo, you are implicitly expected to always reach higher and higher rounds in the tournaments to keep improving your elo, anyway.

The one big problem with weighing different rounds differently is the fact that all tournaments dont have same amount of rounds. One 64 or 128 player tournament would give ridiculously more elo than many 8-player invitationals combined. Or the finals of king of realms would be much more important than, say, semifinals of kotd2. In reality this would distort the ratings much more than those few meaningless games where viper might or might not be trolling a bit, but probably actually isnt.

But of course it's not always a simple question as to what actually should count as a tournament. Should showmatches, for example, be included when actual money is on the line?
 

GermanyKing_Marv

Longswordman
May 27, 2016
560
594
108
27
Germany
#17
Cool Website!

Some suggestion:

Why not take kotd1 ( its there i missed it) and moa5 into consideration as they were both last year and 1v1 and remove old tournaments from 2015.

Lovecheng = shuianui
Mattheus = melkor

They are two times in the list.
 
Last edited:
Likes: GWLeibniz
Feb 15, 2018
25
39
18
#18
There's a lot of things wrong with this, a lot of smurf accounts, very old experts as well (seems like you used WSVG maldives for the rating).

I would suggest starting with KOTD 1, and even that is super outdated by now, but if you won't use that, you are stuck with two ECL events and maybe a few invitational tournaments+ arena clowns and hunwhore tournaments.
 
Likes: GWLeibniz

GermanyKing_Marv

Longswordman
May 27, 2016
560
594
108
27
Germany
#19
There's a lot of things wrong with this, a lot of smurf accounts, very old experts as well (seems like you used WSVG maldives for the rating).

I would suggest starting with KOTD 1, and even that is super outdated by now, but if you won't use that, you are stuck with two ECL events and maybe a few invitational tournaments+ arena clowns and hunwhore tournaments.
a lot of smurfs? which one?
 

Finlandbuhanisson

Longswordman
May 29, 2015
345
874
108
#20
Maybe you could implement some proper decay system to just punish/reset people who dont play enough tournaments in, say, a year or something.

And maybe not display all the accounts with only 1 game or so, to make the list look at least slightly better visually. Or maybe lower the threshold where you give that error sign of not enough data.
 

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