Current Situation on Aoe4 and Aoe2

[kw1k000000]

and here is what Google Trends says for last 90 days

 

[z3us]

and here is what Google Trends says for last 90 days

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But, how can you compare a 20 year old game with a brand new game? Seems kinda unfair to the brand new game!!

 

[HongeyKong]

Google trends doesnt show the absolute value. Reddit online users / player number on ladders (/ twitch viewer count after variety streamer leave) are better indicators imo.

 

[z3us]

Google trends doesnt show the absolute value. Reddit online users / player number on ladders (/ twitch viewer count after variety streamer leave) are better indicators imo.

Don't all those numbers also indicate a game in constant decline?

 

[kw1k000000]

Some sense seems to be prevailing in

 

[HongeyKong]

Don't all those numbers also indicate a game in constant decline?

I dont think anyone is denying that, 99% of new games have similar trends anyway. But if you really want to compare the popularity / hype (or whatever you call it) of two games, youd better use numbers which are reasonably comparable. Not steamcharts which dont include game pass players or google trends which dont show absolute value.


Btw

 

[kw1k000000]

I dont think anyone is denying that, 99% of new games have similar trends anyway. But if you really want to compare the popularity / hype (or whatever you call it) of two games, youd better use numbers which are reasonably comparable. Not steamcharts which dont include game pass players or google trends which dont show absolute value.


Btw
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it took 5 years for aoe2 trend to go from 100 to 25 for aoe4 thats 2 months.

 

[HongeyKong]

it took 5 years for aoe2 trend to go from 100 to 25 for aoe4 thats 2 months.

Bill Gates is still richer than me even if he loses 99.99% of his wealth.


Btw It also took only two months for BOTW, does that mean its a flop?

 

[Rorarimbo]

Yesterday the GL boys had an interesting charity stream (thumb ups for that). During the broadcast, they have been streaming both AoE4 and AoE2. This gives an opportunity to have a look at the viewership for the two games in the same streams on the same day for several streamers (you can see the stats below).

What looks apparent for me is their viewership is still predominantly AoE2 oriented. You can see around double the viewer numbers during the AoE2 part but also a very big difference when it comes to followers. The AoE4 segment had been shorter yes but during this part of the stream not only followers were fewer but they were in the negative for some of the players - 1 for Jordan, - 4 for Nili, and - 6 for Slam. There would have been more unfollows but its likely they were covered by people following too.

If we have a look at this act of unfollowing a streamer, it is very telling. I have said several times that people complaining about too much AoE4 content is not pleasant but it is not so bad, because the alternative is to give up and leave. Unfollowing someone is an extra step than just changing the stream or closing twitch down. It is a final act of leaving a channel, something not so common as normally twitch channels only generate new followers over time, unfollowing is very sporadic for the most part.

I have to agree that the forest nothing x256 mod perhaps had an extra fun factor during the AoE2 segment, but could it account for double the viewership? I say not. First I have noticed these guys having more viewers with AoE2 content recently, second the unfollowing itself as a process, third - well can you play such fun goofy games with pure fun on AoE4?

From the numbers, we cannot say that for sure AoE2 is so much more fun to watch than AoE4, but we can say for sure GL players viewers prefer AoE2 as content on their channels. Honestly, when T90 left twitch we were wondering who is going to benefit the most from the rest of the streamers. I myself was wondering how much the GL boys will benefit as viewership from The Viper departing, too. Seeing them having these numbers in general and none reaching a thousand viewers during an apparently very fun stream is sad. They used to get to a thousand easily before, now they can`t during a very nice and fun stream and usually having around 200/300 viewers if they stream AoE4.

I think what is now happening is a separation of the communityAoE2 and AoE4. And it has been going on for a while. People unfollowing or simply ignoring these streams has happened before yesterday during AoE4 content. This is damaging the "viewership" communities these players have. For me personally, even when they stream AoE2 they do not have the numbers they used to have and could have if the focus had not been on AoE4 mostly during the last two months. Some people have already just left, damage has already been done.

This leads us to the "loyalty" question explored in this forum before. Should followers remain loyal, do streamers some loyalty back. Well if we don't view it from a loyalty but customer service perspective it is clear. If you change what you offer, you risk losing your "loyal customers".

Now here comes the question what is the trade-off? If this process continues for several months more the level separation between AoE2 and AoE4 viewership would increase even more dramatically. If the GL boys get to a point with majority of AoE4 viewers it may become too hard to return to AoE2, too. Leaving the question of loyalty behind the question is: "Is continuing to destroy the self AoE2 viewership community worth it? Does AoE4 give so much more potential and opportunity viewership wise"?

Now, this is the big question. for me personally, the answer is no. Why do I think so? First, the viewership bigger AoE4 streams have is not that impressive. Streams like Bongwa and Grubby come with huge followings from other places/games. Here comes DeMuslin, too. First of he has his older following, but his winning the last big AoE4 tournament only brings his viewers to around 2/3k viewers in the dedicated winner stream. Has the AoE4 hype train something left in the tank? This is not impressive and it has been less than 2 months. This was only the second S-tier tournament (which btw had far fewer viewers than KotD4 had just one week prior).

Now if we look at Hera he has gone exclusively in AoE4 direction recently and he indeed has a good number of viewers. But I will argue he was the biggest AoE stream after T90 and Viper and he is the one benefiting from their departure for FB the most. He already had very high (similar) viewer numbers before and his numbers recently can`t be described as "exploding". This "subatron" that's going on doesn't look like he is very happy with the number of viewers and subs relative to the expectations, but I might be wrong with that. What it looks like to me is if you are on the top of the pyramid you may still have an easier way to transition to AoE4 and might get some of those elusive AoE4 viewers coming from other games.

However, having 200/300 viewers during AoE4 streams and losing followers should be alarming and feels very risky to continue like that if you are considering your channel`s health. Even in the long run, I doubt how much potential AoE4 viewership has, seeing how player numbers are plummeting and the fact the biggest channel that could "donate" viewership is in German. Yet again another worry I have is that losing too many of the AoE2 devoted viewers may also mean turning back might get very hard already seeing some of this process happening and people leaving (not being present even during the AoE2 streams.

Here I have been speaking only from a streamer`s perspective. But if we consider that the AoE4 competitive scene is even harder than AoE2 to get to the top where you could expect some positives from AoE4 viewership (again the example with DeMuslims whose numbers are not that impressive). The riddle gets even harder if you want to go into AoE4 direction.

PS. It is obvious I prefer AoE2 and would like to see my favorite players playing it, but this post is not about that. I only have love and respect for Tatito, Daut, Jordan, and the rest, I wannt them to do well, and I have tried to be as objective as possible.

 

[TopperHarley]

Yesterday the GL boys had an interesting charity stream

Sorry for going a bit offtopic here, but why is Nili still part of the GL team?

From what i have heard he is even worse at competitive Aoe4 than he is at Aoe2, how is that even remotely a professional player?

Unless he is the "caster" of GL ( he is obvioulsy one of the best casters in Age2 and also one of my favorites)

 

...

I think this is a bit too much interpretation into a single stream to be honest. Viewer numbers fluctuate, follower numbers fluctuate. It is assumed to have higher viewer numbers on a game you already have the majority of followers from, in the end these people are not variety streamers. In general I feel people are way too much focussing on these numbers and just trying to support their already made up arguments instead of looking at the numbers and see where they are flawed, what they are not showing and take a whole different approach. In general you shouldn't do it this way around, rather you should look at the numbers and see where something outstanding is happening and then find a reason why. So far I don't see anything uncommon in these stats to be honest. It's also not alarming or anything, just business as usual.

 

[z3us]

I think this is a bit too much interpretation into a single stream to be honest. Viewer numbers fluctuate, follower numbers fluctuate. It is assumed to have higher viewer numbers on a game you already have the majority of followers from, in the end these people are not variety streamers. In general I feel people are way too much focussing on these numbers and just trying to support their already made up arguments instead of looking at the numbers and see where they are flawed, what they are not showing and take a whole different approach. In general you shouldn't do it this way around, rather you should look at the numbers and see where something outstanding is happening and then find a reason why. So far I don't see anything uncommon in these stats to be honest. It's also not alarming or anything, just business as usual.

Is this your way of applying for a mod position in r/aoe4?

Every single metric shows aoe4 in negative light. And, every single time these metrics are brought up, someone is there to comment numbers don't matter.

rather you should look at the numbers and see where something outstanding is happening and then find a reason why.

That's exactly what op had done with his long and detailed post. Can't help if you're blinded by your need to always defend aoe4

 

[Rorarimbo]

I think this is a bit too much interpretation into a single stream to be honest. Viewer numbers fluctuate, follower numbers fluctuate. It is assumed to have higher viewer numbers on a game you already have the majority of followers from, in the end these people are not variety streamers. In general I feel people are way too much focussing on these numbers and just trying to support their already made up arguments instead of looking at the numbers and see where they are flawed, what they are not showing and take a whole different approach. In general you shouldn't do it this way around, rather you should look at the numbers and see where something outstanding is happening and then find a reason why. So far I don't see anything uncommon in these stats to be honest. It's also not alarming or anything, just business as usual.

Well if you feel it is too much interpretation into a single stream you are welcome to observe for a prolonged period of time. I have already noticed Villese having more viewers than the said GL streamers while streaming AoE2 compared to them streaming AoE4, what was never the case before.

Yes viewer numbers fluctuate but it is nice to see why. You can compare yourself when the two different games were streamed. It is obvious what the viewership reaction is. And it is easier to compare numbers within the same stream rather how did AoE2 vs AoE4 stream from the same guy did in different days/hours.

I do not know what people do to support their ideas, I know I try to be objected, based on the information available. For example, I said this doesn't have to mean AoE2 has to be better content for viewership but it's obvious these streamers' audiences prefer AoE2. And in my profession, I have been taught how to read data.

Having people unfollow is something "outstanding" to look into. And I am doing exactly that, considering why. To you, it seems to be self-evident. AoE2 streamers are supposed to stream AoE2 if they do not want to lose viewers. I agree but let us try to look into possible risks and benefits. It is also apparent they are not getting the viewers they used to not only during AoE4 and but AoE2 streams, care to give your interpretation as to why?

Excuse me but trying to discard someone's post on a general impression is unfair and not a nice way to go. If you want to give counter-arguments you are welcome but discarding other's points because "You feel people are doing this or that" is not smth a will accept.

I

 

Is this your way of applying for a mod position in r/aoe4?

I'm sorry, that you didn't like my comment.

Every single metric shows aoe4 in negative light. And, every single time these metrics are brought up, someone is there to comment numbers don't matter.

I didn't say numbers don't matter. I just find it funny, that due to AoE4 everyone seems to get into statistics. But only to find proofs to their already made up arguments. Which is flawed in itself.

That's exactly what op had done with his long and detailed post. Can't help if you're blinded by your need to always defend aoe4

I don't have any reason to defend anything. I have reason to critical think of arguments and proofs brought up and often question the reliability of numbers and things that are stated as facts, which they aren't.

 

I said this doesn't have to mean AoE2 has to be better content for viewership but it's obvious these streamers' audiences prefer AoE2.

Yes, because the follower-ship of these streamers is consisting by a majority of AoE2 viewers from over the years. Twitch is sending out notifications to them, when the stream title is changed and people will more likely open their stream if it contains AoE2 content when they were following them for AoE2 content. So it's nothing special really imho.

Having people unfollow is something "outstanding" to look into.

It depends if this is something significant. A few followers less during a stream is not really outstanding, it's business as usual. So I wonder where the significance is in these numbers then. How does it compare to other streams of that content creator and so on.

 

[Lokalo]

Sorry for going a bit offtopic here, but why is Nili still part of the GL team?

From what i have heard he is even worse at competitive Aoe4 than he is at Aoe2, how is that even remotely a professional player?

Unless he is the "caster" of GL ( he is obvioulsy one of the best casters in Age2 and also one of my favorites)

I dislike of Nili's full switch to aoe4, but honestly this question is just disrespect towards him. We know nothing what GL's as a team goal is both in aoe2 and aoe4 nor what's Nili's part there. Also he did tons for aoe2.

As about Rorarimbo's post, well I was one of those who did unfollow them all. If they do play 95% aoe4, I'm not interested to try catching some of aoe2 and especially getting emails about them starting streams.
Is bit sad, but at same time I have no interest watching aoe4, so it is as it is.

And I always said same thing about aoe4, of course they will get some new viewers from there, but being way bigger competition at the top level(at least right now) makes it even harder. Is already happening, top50 of aoe2 people not reaching top 100 at aoe4. Also curious how much it benefits aoe4 that right now there seems many "equal" top players or is more benefiting to have few clear favorites. As from my perspective is more interesting to watch when you have no idea who will win, but not sure if that's for everyone

 

[Saeda]

I didn't say numbers don't matter. I just find it funny, that due to AoE4 everyone seems to get into statistics. But only to find proofs to their already made up arguments. Which is flawed in itself.

That's called confirmation bias, and yes, bringing up statistics that confirm ones position can be seen as such.

Thing is: There is not a single statistic speaking to the opposite. It's hard to change your position if you don't get any arguments against it.

This discussion started out with a "loud minority" against AoE4, which now sees itself in a majority position by all accountable metrics, and gets accordingly even more vocal. I don't like the sometimes toxic nature of it, but that comes from a position of feeling threatened, another point which Rorarimbo explained very well, both games suffer from it.

So as long as the publich (Streamer) Focus remains on AoE4, this discussion will only get more intense, and sadly, that sometimes will mean irrational. In this case though, it was a well comprised post with definitive examples to state a point. I think the extent to which this post was biased was negligable and it was definitvely one of the more constructive posts lately.

 

[Rorarimbo]

Yes, because the follower-ship of these streamers is consisting by a majority of AoE2 viewers from over the years. Twitch is sending out notifications to them, when the stream title is changed and people will more likely open their stream if it contains AoE2 content when they were following them for AoE2 content. So it's nothing special really imho.



It depends if this is something significant. A few followers less during a stream is not really outstanding, it's business as usual. So I wonder where the significance is in these numbers then. How does it compare to other streams of that content creator and so on.

"Significance" is relative. And when it comes to certain channels directions which are the main source income for said streamers/players and pillars for the community I would say the significance here is not smth to underestimate.

You are deciding to play "Devils" advocate in this case. It is your choice but I don't have time to spend breaking things down even more, especially as I feel you are not really open to others' views and just try to discard them saying they are "insignificant".

 

[MaSmOrRa]

Yesterday the GL boys had an interesting charity stream (thumb ups for that). During the broadcast, they have been streaming both AoE4 and AoE2. This gives an opportunity to have a look at the viewership for the two games in the same streams on the same day for several streamers (you can see the stats below).

What looks apparent for me is their viewership is still predominantly AoE2 oriented. You can see around double the viewer numbers during the AoE2 part but also a very big difference when it comes to followers. The AoE4 segment had been shorter yes but during this part of the stream not only followers were fewer but they were in the negative for some of the players - 1 for Jordan, - 4 for Nili, and - 6 for Slam. There would have been more unfollows but its likely they were covered by people following too.

If we have a look at this act of unfollowing a streamer, it is very telling. I have said several times that people complaining about too much AoE4 content is not pleasant but it is not so bad, because the alternative is to give up and leave. Unfollowing someone is an extra step than just changing the stream or closing twitch down. It is a final act of leaving a channel, something not so common as normally twitch channels only generate new followers over time, unfollowing is very sporadic for the most part.

I have to agree that the forest nothing x256 mod perhaps had an extra fun factor during the AoE2 segment, but could it account for double the viewership? I say not. First I have noticed these guys having more viewers with AoE2 content recently, second the unfollowing itself as a process, third - well can you play such fun goofy games with pure fun on AoE4?

From the numbers, we cannot say that for sure AoE2 is so much more fun to watch than AoE4, but we can say for sure GL players viewers prefer AoE2 as content on their channels. Honestly, when T90 left twitch we were wondering who is going to benefit the most from the rest of the streamers. I myself was wondering how much the GL boys will benefit as viewership from The Viper departing, too. Seeing them having these numbers in general and none reaching a thousand viewers during an apparently very fun stream is sad. They used to get to a thousand easily before, now they can`t during a very nice and fun stream and usually having around 200/300 viewers if they stream AoE4.

I think what is now happening is a separation of the communityAoE2 and AoE4. And it has been going on for a while. People unfollowing or simply ignoring these streams has happened before yesterday during AoE4 content. This is damaging the "viewership" communities these players have. For me personally, even when they stream AoE2 they do not have the numbers they used to have and could have if the focus had not been on AoE4 mostly during the last two months. Some people have already just left, damage has already been done.

This leads us to the "loyalty" question explored in this forum before. Should followers remain loyal, do streamers some loyalty back. Well if we don't view it from a loyalty but customer service perspective it is clear. If you change what you offer, you risk losing your "loyal customers".

Now here comes the question what is the trade-off? If this process continues for several months more the level separation between AoE2 and AoE4 viewership would increase even more dramatically. If the GL boys get to a point with majority of AoE4 viewers it may become too hard to return to AoE2, too. Leaving the question of loyalty behind the question is: "Is continuing to destroy the self AoE2 viewership community worth it? Does AoE4 give so much more potential and opportunity viewership wise"?

Now, this is the big question. for me personally, the answer is no. Why do I think so? First, the viewership bigger AoE4 streams have is not that impressive. Streams like Bongwa and Grubby come with huge followings from other places/games. Here comes DeMuslin, too. First of he has his older following, but his winning the last big AoE4 tournament only brings his viewers to around 2/3k viewers in the dedicated winner stream. Has the AoE4 hype train something left in the tank? This is not impressive and it has been less than 2 months. This was only the second S-tier tournament (which btw had far fewer viewers than KotD4 had just one week prior).

Now if we look at Hera he has gone exclusively in AoE4 direction recently and he indeed has a good number of viewers. But I will argue he was the biggest AoE stream after T90 and Viper and he is the one benefiting from their departure for FB the most. He already had very high (similar) viewer numbers before and his numbers recently can`t be described as "exploding". This "subatron" that's going on doesn't look like he is very happy with the number of viewers and subs relative to the expectations, but I might be wrong with that. What it looks like to me is if you are on the top of the pyramid you may still have an easier way to transition to AoE4 and might get some of those elusive AoE4 viewers coming from other games.

However, having 200/300 viewers during AoE4 streams and losing followers should be alarming and feels very risky to continue like that if you are considering your channel`s health. Even in the long run, I doubt how much potential AoE4 viewership has, seeing how player numbers are plummeting and the fact the biggest channel that could "donate" viewership is in German. Yet again another worry I have is that losing too many of the AoE2 devoted viewers may also mean turning back might get very hard already seeing some of this process happening and people leaving (not being present even during the AoE2 streams.

Here I have been speaking only from a streamer`s perspective. But if we consider that the AoE4 competitive scene is even harder than AoE2 to get to the top where you could expect some positives from AoE4 viewership (again the example with DeMuslims whose numbers are not that impressive). The riddle gets even harder if you want to go into AoE4 direction.

PS. It is obvious I prefer AoE2 and would like to see my favorite players playing it, but this post is not about that. I only have love and respect for Tatito, Daut, Jordan, and the rest, I wannt them to do well, and I have tried to be as objective as possible.

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Awesome post, thanks for this!

Could the fact that GL players get more viewers streaming AoE2 also be due to them just being much better players at AoE2 than AoE4? So if they grind the game and get better at it, viewership might increase with it?
Apart from Viper, who is streaming on FB, none of them has really any accomplishment to speak of in AoE4 so far...

As to the fact AoE2 has now had higher daily peaks than AoE4 there's really no other way to interpret this in my opinion, it's an awful sign for AoE4's player retention. Don't know if Microsoft is all too bothered about that though, since they clearly geared the game towards singleplayers and thus only sale numbers matter to them probably.

I really do wonder what this all means in terms of what game tournament organizers/players are going to prioritize in the next couple of months.

One of the things I'm missing from your post though @Rorarimbo, and call me naive if you want, but I actually take it at face value when players say they are playing AoE4 because...they are having fun with it!
I don't think they are making huge calculations towards what's better for their channels, they are simply having fun with a new game (which happens to be very similar to their favorite game) after spending 15 years playing AoE2.

January should gives an interesting comparison in terms of what twitch viewers prefer to watch, as we will have S-Tier tournaments in both games!

 

[Rorarimbo]

Awesome post, thanks for this!

Could the fact that GL players get more viewers streaming AoE2 also be due to them just being much better players at AoE2 than AoE4? So if they grind the game and get better at it, viewership might increase with it?
Apart from Viper, who is streaming on FB, none of them has really any accomplishment to speak of in AoE4 so far...

As to the fact AoE2 has now had higher daily peaks than AoE4 there's really no other way to interpret this in my opinion, it's an awful sign for AoE4's player retention. Don't know if Microsoft is all too bothered about that though, since they clearly geared the game towards singleplayers and thus only sale numbers matter to them probably.

I really do wonder what this all means in terms of what game tournament organizers/players are going to prioritize in the next couple of months.

One of the things I'm missing from your post though @Rorarimbo, and call me naive if you want, but I actually take it at face value when players say they are playing AoE4 because...they are having fun with it!
I don't think they are making huge calculations towards what's better for their channels, they are simply having fun with a new game (which happens to be very similar to their favorite game) after spending 15 years playing AoE2.

January should gives an interesting comparison in terms of what twitch viewers prefer to watch, as we will have S-Tier tournaments in both games!

I am not sure that their skills play a big part in that. I think most of their viewers being AoE2 fans is the much bigger factor. As for success, it is very early to say.

This is subjective here but what bothers me, in general, is that we speak of this "melting pot" of people from very different games who now play AoE4. But if you see the competitions people like: TheMuslim, Vortix, Marinelord, Lucifron are not really top of the top at least not currently in other games while AoE2 is competing with our A-listers: Viper (the GOAT), Hera (top 3), Tatoh, Jordan, Daut, (top 10), Capoch, Kasva (top 15/20). We see Yo, Villese, Dogao trying it out while not as dedicated, even Liereyy streaming AoE4 recently. The Mista and Magic coming from the top of other franchise games indeed but what has AoM really to lose as competitive scene. To me at a high-level competition, it doesn't look like a melting pot as SC2 and other games very best don't compete but cannibalizing of AoE2. And what is worse with the higher competition it is going to be harder for "our" players to reach the same heights in AoE4. DeMuslim, Vortix, and Marine Lord are not worse players they just don't represent the best of the best of another game the way it is with AoE2 best players.


As for the fun. I agree with your suggestion for the most part. I have got 1700h in DE for the last two years and more often than not prefer to play some other games when I have time. I imagine what is for these guys if they had tens of thousands of games. But on the other hand, I notice something different. The bigger the stream the players have the more they seem to be 'interested" in AoE4. We have Hera and the GL players mostly having fun with AoE4 and being bored of AoE2, while other experts (not so prominent streamers): Villese, Nicov, Heartt, seemingly not so willing to experiment. (Mbl also can be added here as he is not very active but he is a special case in a lot of situations). So I do believe top players want to try something new and have fun but I also see some link with "the possibility to grow big going into AoE4 direction", Hera being the best example.

 

[Springoftheking]

Confirmation bias are real thing, so people should be careful, when looking for numbers supporting their argument. But still there isn't any metric which would show AoE4 as big success. I looked The Viper's YouTube-channel. The Viper uploads both AoE2 and AoE4 videos and AoE2-videos are more popular. Of course The Viper's audience has been exclusive AoE2, but he is one of the best AoE4-players and hasn't (at least yet) bigger audience for his AoE4-content.

 

[TopperHarley]

Confirmation bias are real thing, so people should be careful, when looking for numbers supporting their argument. But still there isn't any metric which would show AoE4 as big success. I looked The Viper's YouTube-channel. The Viper uploads both AoE2 and AoE4 videos and AoE2-videos are more popular. Of course The Viper's audience has been exclusive AoE2, but he is one of the best AoE4-players and hasn't (at least yet) bigger audience for his AoE4-content.

Viper's youtube channel is indeed another very good indicator of Aoe4s significant decline over the last couple of weeks.

Viewer numbers of newly uploaded Aoe4 videos get lower and lower each week while Aoe2 numbers are staying strong.

Glad to see that quality wins in the end and that this new trash game will hopefully be forgotten soon

 

[SuperskinnyBLS]

Popular opinion here

Spoiler

If this so called Aoe4 game didn't have age of empires in the title none of those pros would have given a **** about it.

 

[HongeyKong]

Popular opinion here

Spoiler

If this so called Aoe4 game didn't have age of empires in the title none of those pros would have given a **** about it.

Some of them have tried empires apart, so I wouldnt say zero ****, but likely less ****.

 

[SuperskinnyBLS]

Some of them have tried empires apart, so I wouldnt say zero ****, but likely less ****.

They also tried Shadow Raid Legends and Prismata
: - D