From what Viper says: yes, big impact. He won't be able to stay competitive in both games at the same time. Therefore he'll focus on AoE2, and if he's qualified for AoE4 he'll participate but won't train at all (he'll just keep up to date with how the meta is developing)
Do you remember the months and months of Huns war on AoE2? There was even a bug at some point making it impossible to choose anything else but Huns, though no one noticed as everyone automatically chose Huns anyway.
We played AoE4 for a week-end (even less for some, as RBW5 was happening)...
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